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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

MindzEye said:
Bored on Sunday, so now is as good a time as any to update for this season. For now even the kids who made the show out of camp will remain on the list until it's clear that they're full timers that are sticking with the NHL club for the entire season.

1) Knies
2) Robertson
3) Cowan
4) Minten
5) Niemela

This tier expands a bit compared to last year as our pipeline gets deeper and more talented at the top end. It's kind of impossible to deny Knies as our top prospect right now though I still believe Robertson to have the higher upside. Robertson looks pretty fucking close to breakout ready imo though and had a better professional camp than he's had previously. But I agree with the idea of letting him cook in the AHL while we give Minten a shot to show he belongs, given our centre situation. I position Cowan higher than Minten on upside, the skill set is obviously exciting though Minten looks ready to play a man's game now, but with some upside limitations imo but that stills really impressive at 19. Niemela had a bad training camp but is only 21, still a RHD and I'm way more interested in how he looks over an AHL season than at his first camp with the Leafs. The Euro defenders usually need a bit of a transition period to north american hockey. If he's not playing like a top 2-3 for the Marlies by mid season, I'll get concerned.

6) Grebyonkin
7) Voit
8) Hildeby
9) Ahktyamov
10) Holmberg

Greby looks like he might be real good and a good month in the KHL could push him up to the next group. Voit's placement is pending a run of AHL games to see what he is now against AHL competition at 20. 20 yr old AHL production is a huge dividing line in prospect development. Guys who don't transition well from CHL hockey to AHL hockey become impact players in the NHL at a much lower rater than the guys who transition well. We should be looking at a .6ppg+ scoring rates at minimum from Voit for us to get excited about top 6 type NHL potential. Higher is obviously ideal. Goalies are voodoo, but both of these two look about as sexy as anything but elite goalie prospects can look. This is a big year for both though, both are 22 (Ahky in 2 weeks, but close enough) and if they're going to be high end NHL tendies, they should look like it in the AHL & KHL respectively. Holmberg rounds this out as he sure looks NHL calibre, but looks more like a complimentary 3rd line type guy than anything higher level than that.

11) Moldenhauer
12) Hirvonen
13) Villeneuve
14) Peksa
15) Chadwick


Moldy off to a rough start in the NCAA, but probably has the highest upside here (Chadwick pending...early season results might be a D+1 offensive breakout underway). Hirvonen looks so, so much better than his stat lines ever read. I completely get why he's always been so highly though of by scouts but if his Liiga trend continues into the AHL we're looking at a 4th liner at best. Villeneuve had an intriguing season from a 20 yr old RHD, would be nice to see a step forward so I can put him in the next tier with the good NHL prospects.


16) Kokkonen
17) Lisowski
18) Peksa
19) Miller
20) Malinoski


Kokkonen looked like a professional at camp, what level of professional should be answered this year with lots of opportunity on the Marlies blueline up for grabs. Lisowksy is off to a decent start to his D+2 season as a WHL skill midget. Probably deserves to be a tier higher, but I'm still a bit hung up on the mythical ~1.2 ppg mark that still holds up surprisingly well as a benchmark for CHL D+1 production for anyone who goes on to be a good offensive player in the NHL and Lisowsky missed that by a bit last year and being a skill midget is unlikely to find a NHL role in any other way but scoring his way into it. No idea what Peksa is yet, but interesting, ditto Miller. Malinoski may as well be from parts unknown after getting drafted out of the AJ.
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November update:

1) Knies
2) Robertson
3) Cowan
4) Minten
5) Niemela

I definitely have the urge to shuffle this group around with Cowan showing sexy, sexy upside with elite skating/edges in his D+1 season. There's real #1 centre possibility there, Robbie looking too good for the AHL and Knies struggling a bit in his first extended run of play in the show but I'm going to resist that for now. The nerdies liked Minty's cup of coffee better than fathead did, would have been nice to see him get his full 9 games. To my eye test the offensive skills looked a bit limited but the IQ & physical package looked legit as a middle 6 centre. Super young though, so could grow into more offense. Niemela has adapted about as well to the AHL as we could have hoped, especially after a wonky camp where he looked overwhelmed. He looks every bit the modern, well rounded puck moving defender prospect to me so far.

6) Grebyonkin
7) Hildeby
8) Ahktyamov
9) Voit
10) Holmberg

I'm starting to get "Kulemin" vibes off of Grebyonkin. Every few weeks I see a video out of Russia of him making a play using a really nice size/skill/speed combo but every time I check his KHL stats he's in the same .5-.6ppg range. Turns 21 later this season and his KHL contract is up at the end of the year, so I'm going to remain hopeful here but I'm not seeing the type of explosion into top tier prospect status that it looked like might be happening when he finally started getting playing time last season. The package is still very intriguing though. I've moved the goalies ahead of Ty Voit, who hasn't played yet this year because their play warrants it. Hildeby might be in the middle of taking the Marlies starting job and running with it, Ahky is putting up strong KHL numbers for his age and appears to have stolen the starters job for Ak Bars. Holmberg was always pretty limited, but I don't think playing him on a 4th line with pluggers is going to get the best out of him. He looks like a guy with enough skill/IQ to compliment better players, I don't know if he's a guy you want on a checking line and expecting him to make shit happen. Disappointing so far regardless though. Was hoping for more to his game.

11) Villeneuve
12) Chadwick
13) Moldenhauer
14) Hirvonen
15) Peksa
16) Kokkonen
17) Steeves

Chadwick & Villeneuve earn the move up here, but almost by default. Moldy off to a slow start for Michigan, Hirvonen not cracking the Marlies lineup yet. Hirvonen feels like a kid we should include in trade somewhere based on his pedigree and the fact that scouts has always loved him. Wouldn't hurt seeing what he is at the AHL level, but if there was any value out there for him (Calgary, if you're listening...), I wouldn't hesitate. Peksa struggling so far in limited reps in Newfoundland. I've moved Kokkonen up to this group....he sure looks like a NHL defender of some type. Also, every time I want to write Steeves off I remember that he's 23 and continues to produce in the AHL. He'll have to find more to his game but it's hard to write off a guy who has scored at a ~30 goal pace the last 2+ seasons in the AHL and has started hot enough 2 years in a row to suggest that maybe more is there.

18) Lisowski
19) Miller
20) Malinoski
21) Tverberg
22) Miettenen

Tverberg and Miettenen doing just enough to be worth considering prospects.

Also, just to explain the rough tiers I personally stack them in. Probably going to revise and borrow the old Hockey Boards grading system going forward as well.

- "Impact" prospects. Players who have the reasonable potential to be top performers for us. That can come in a few different shapes and sizes but generally guys who fit into your top 6 forwards, top 3 defence, and starter or 1A goalie roles with the reasonable possibility of them making it. Guys who you don't have to squint very hard to see them making a positive difference on the NHL roster.

- Second tier is a bit of a mish mash of guys with high upside/low likelihood of reaching that (Greby has an outside shot at being a 1st line winger calibre player imo, Hildy & Akhy have starter potential but goalies are goalies) and lower upside guys (but still very much useful in the NHL) with a higher chance of reaching that (like Holmberg and previously imo Hirvonen) but who look like low tier NHL'ers at the worst.

- Third tier are career professionals who have a shot at NHL careers of some type or another. Some might have enough skill to carve out a role in the show eventually (think Bunting type progressions) and some will peak as your classic bottom pairing, bottom line roster filler of various quality and specialities.

- Fourth is unknown unknowns. Guys who are unlikely to become anything ever but are just interesting enough to keep an eye on because weird shit happens between the ages of 18-23.
 
I think Malinoski might deserve a bump up. Looks like a true C, with good size and skating, and off to a very nice start as a 19yr old rookie.
 
Maybe, but as a general rule I'm leery of overage draft picks, especially when they come out of tier 2 junior leagues. It's not an encouraging development path.
 
AHL

C Holmberg (24): 2gms, 1gls, 2pts (41gl/82pt pace)
W Robertson (22): 9gms, 5gls, 11pts (46gl/100pt pace)
W Steeves (24): 9gms, 6gls, 10pts (55gl/91pt pace)

C Tverberg (21): 5gms, 1gls, 4pts (16gl/66pt pace)
W Bellows (25): 2gms, 1gls, 2pts (41gl/82pt pace)
W Blandisi (29): 8gms, 2gls, 7pts (21gl/71pt pace)

C Shaw (31): 9gms, 3gls, 7pts (27gl/64pt pace)
W Ellis (23): 9gms, 1gls, 6pts (9gl/55pt pace)
W McMann (27): 5gms, 2gls, 3pts (33gl/49pt pace)

C Gambrell (28): 9gms, 1gls, 5pts (9gl/46pt pace)
W Clifford (32): 9gms, 2gls, 5pts (18gl/46pt pace)
W Slavin (25): 8gms, 1gls, 4pts (10gl/41pt pace)

C Ovchinnikov (21): 4gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)
W Abruzzese (24): 9gms, 1gls, 4pts (9gl/36pt pace)
W Solow (25): 5gms, 0gls, 1pts (0gl/16pt pace)

C Hirvonen (21): 2gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)
W Mastrosimone (22): 4gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)
W Voit (20): 0gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)


D Rifai (25): 6gms, 0gls, 4pts (0gl/55pt pace)
D Niemela (21): 8gms, 2gls, 5pts (21gl/51pt pace)

D Villeneuve (21): 7gms, 0gls, 3pts (0gl/35pt pace)
D Kokkonen (22): 7gms, 1gls, 2pts (12gl/23pt pace)

D Lagesson (28): 5gms, 0gls, 1pts (0gl/16pt pace)
D Pietroniro (25): 5gms, 0gls, 1pts (0gl/16pt pace)

D Miller (24): 7gms, 0gls, 1pts (0gl/12pt pace)
D Lajoie (26): 7gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)

D Benoit (25): 2gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)


G Hildeby (22): 3gms, .935
G Petruzzelli (24): 3gms, .886
G Jones (33): 3gms, .884


ECHL

G Cavallin (22): 2gms, .929
G Peksa (21): 3gms, .833


CHL

C Minten (19): 2gms, 1gls, 2pts (41gl/82pt pace)
W Cowan (18): 10gms, 7gls, 18pts (57gl/148pt pace)
W Lisowsky (19): 16gmsĺ, 9gls, 18pts (46gl/92pt pace)

D Chadwick (18): 16gms, 4gls, 14pts (21gl/72pt pace)


KHL

W Grebyonkin (20): 26gms, 8gls, 14pts (25gl/44pt pace)

G Akhtyamov (22): 13gms, .929sv% (VHL 3gms, .933)


NCAA

C MIller (21): 3gms, 2gls, 2pts (55gl/55pt pace)
W Miettenin (22): 8gms, 5gls, 9pts (51gl/92pt pace)

C Malinoski (19): 9gms, 3gls, 6pts (27gl/55pt pace)
W Moldenhauer (19): 10gms, 1gls, 4pts (8gl/33pt pace)
 
I think ME's Top-7 is probably pretty clear cut, though we could quibble about the order.

After that it opens way up. the competition in the 8-10 slots there isn't too fierce.

Holmberg unfortunately is getting past the point of hoping too much. He can't even do well in a 4th line role yet which is pretty disappointing. He's not complete toast yet but at this point I'm not sure he's ahead of the likes of Steeves anymore.

Voit is interesting but still has a longshot skills profile and his 19yr old offense was only good, not great.

Akhtyamov is a goalie and goalies are assholes as a great man once said. Nice to see him succeed in his first real shot in the KHL but lots of similar aged goalies have done as much without amounting to much. Peksa drowning in the ECHl to start this year doesn't help my optimism here either.


I think at that point the dmen are starting to look pretty good to me - Kokkonen, Villeneuve, Chadwick. Not sure if i'd cram them all into the top-10 yet but i'm not so far away from that.
 
zeke said:
I think ME's Top-7 is probably pretty clear cut, though we could quibble about the order.
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I want to quibble, but I want to wait. I think a lot gets clearer on the order of them within a month or so. If Robertson doesn't take to NHL hockey on this call up, if Knies doesn't bounce back to better form and Cowan keeps this up we might have a new #1. All sorts of shit can change in that top group over the next month imo. Yeah, the quibbling is just on pause at the moment.

zeke said:
Holmberg unfortunately is getting past the point of hoping too much. He can't even do well in a 4th line role yet which is pretty disappointing. He's not complete toast yet but at this point I'm not sure he's ahead of the likes of Steeves anymore.
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I'd like to see him in a top 9 complimentary role before I write him off because he's shown flashes of being able to play with skill before. This 4th line is so far gone I'm trying to not blame him for not saving it. But yeah, he's looking like more of an organizational forward than a lineup fixture at the moment and agreed, hasn't done much to separate himself from Steeves.

zeke said:
I think at that point the dmen are starting to look pretty good to me - Kokkonen, Villeneuve, Chadwick. Not sure if i'd cram them all into the top-10 yet but i'm not so far away from that.
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Agreed, though I think there will be some quibbling on placement. Kokkonen the most NHL ready of the 3 but with the lowest upside of the 3. What to rank higher there, proximity to the league or impact once you get there?
 
Cowen has a full season at 1.75-2ppg and we may have a new #1 at least based on sheer upside. Still early though, yeah. I like the list. Top 3 could be in any order, still lots of uncertainty with all of them as ME pointed out. But I think we'll get a lot of answers on them pretty soon.

Minten has 3c upside but feels fairly safe to at least be an NHLer, Niemela... I'm just confused about him but we'll learn more soon and tbh Hildeby is the one that could launch into the top tier at some point this year as well. A 22 year old 6'7 goalie with that professional pedigree is no joke. He could be legit. Ben Bishop vibes.
 
Preston said:
Cowen has a full season at 1.75-2ppg and we may have a new #1 at least based on sheer upside. Still early though, yeah. I like the list. Top 3 could be in any order, still lots of uncertainty with all of them as ME pointed out. But I think we'll get a lot of answers on them pretty soon.

Minten has 3c upside but feels fairly safe to at least be an NHLer, Niemela... I'm just confused about him but we'll learn more soon and tbh Hildeby is the one that could launch into the top tier at some point this year as well. A 22 year old 6'7 goalie with that professional pedigree is no joke. He could be legit. Ben Bishop vibes.
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Minty is most likely to slip, yeah. I don't think we're going to see big offensive numbers out of him in the WHL this year but his cup of coffee showed us kind of what he's about as a NHL player imo. Will have NHL size, NHL smarts, and can play at both ends of the ice. Jordan Staal without the inbreeding kind of vibes.

I think we'll have a good grasp on Niemela by Christmas, but I'm pretty pumped so far.
 
My dream scenario is Hildy dominance and a Hildy-Woll tandem by Jan/Feb. Just like that they'd be able to trim Samsonov's contract in addition to Klingberg's to add some real meat to the lineup.

But that's just a dream at this point. I'm just skeptical about how much additional value Samsonov would add compared to an emerging Hildy + some additional pieces on the back end.

But as usual I'm probably just jinxing it and Hildy will go to shit and I'll be to blame.
 
dropping your starting G at the start of the year for a 22-year-old prospect seems like a decision that couldn't possibly go wrong

especially with this organization's recent history of good luck at the position
 
axlsalinger said:
dropping your starting G at the start of the year for a 22-year-old prospect seems like a decision that couldn't possibly go wrong

especially with this organization's recent history of good luck at the position
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Could it be much worse than employing a goalie as a starter that has had 1 good season out of 5 and a career .906 SV% (.902 in the playoffs)? Can't be afraid of playing players who outperform just because they're a particular age. Need to buck the trend.

Of course my scenario was under the presumption that Hildeby is a dominant AHL starter, Woll holding up as a legit tandem guy and Samsonov reverts back to Washington Samsonov, which as mentioned isn't the most realistic scenario. But it would be fun. And if Woll is the go-to guy, 3.5m for a goalie largely sitting on the bench could be better allocated elsewhere.

For me Klingberg is the obvious guy to cut bait on to clear money, but if they need to clear more money when an opportunity arises, Samsonov could be another if that above scenario plays out to some degree. We need to stop treating him like an untouchable starter. He's got zero track record. He's basically another Woll to me, except he makes 3.5. If he gets hot great, keep him, but if he has another Washington nightmare season then no need to stay loyal there if they have other options (and an opportunity to add a position of need).
 
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Hildy basically realized 2 years ago in swedish junior that he was elite now and has been ever since across 3 leagues now, 2 of them professional (yes, the 2nd one is in 3 games...so pending).

If he does this for another 6-8 weeks in the AHL, I have no qualms with giving him a NHL look.
 
MindzEye said:
Hildy basically realized 2 years ago in swedish junior that he was elite now and has been ever since across 3 leagues now, 2 of them professional (yes, the 2nd one is in 3 games...so pending).

If he does this for another 6-8 weeks in the AHL, I have no qualms with giving him a NHL look.
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And he will, both of their guys with the big club are sorta injury prone. So if Hildy runs away as the AHL starter and is the clear #3 then he'll get a chance to show what he's got.

I mean obviously if you don't need the Samsonov money to add elsewhere to the team then you keep him just in case, but if they need his money to add a #1 or 2 d and Hildy and Woll are rocking and Samsonov is back to .895-.905 Samsonov, then I'm not really sure we have any reason to trust Samsonov any more than those 2. Not like it's Connor Hellebuyck having a rare slump or something.
 
Preston said:
And he will, both of their guys with the big club are sorta injury prone. So if Hildy runs away as the AHL starter and is the clear #3 then he'll get a chance to show what he's got.

I mean obviously if you don't need the Samsonov money to add elsewhere to the team then you keep him just in case, but if they need his money to add a #1 or 2 d and Hildy and Woll are rocking and Samsonov is back to .895-.905 Samsonov, then I'm not really sure we have any reason to trust Samsonov any more than those 2. Not like it's Connor Hellebuyck having a rare slump or something.
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you're cute, you think we'll call up Hildeby instead of Jones or Petruzzelli. so adorable.
 
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