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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

runninglow said:
High teens is a bit of a stretch. I have Cowan as an offensive 3rd liner with potential to be a 2nd liner winger. Don't think the play is dynamic enough for PP1, but PP2 for sure...I had him as Hyman-lite last year before Hyman went supernova. Average year: 40pt floor as third liner, 60pts if he hits with 70pt career year. Comparable players (points wise, not style/size wise) I have range from Daze to Hoffman to Mangiapane with some third liners mixed in. The outlier comparison is Mark Recchi, which would be nice, but there's about ten 45-60 pt guys for the one Recchi, and a lot of luck is needed for that to happen. So...60% third liner, 30% second liner, 10% star.

Anyway, given the list, I wouldn't have him above Yurov or Guenther (30/31) who are both playing and excelling against men, maybe Snuggerud or McrGroarty, in the mid-30's, but their ceilings could be 1st liners. Definitely ahead of MBN at 39, around the Kulich area is where I'd have him. So 8 higher...splitting hairs at that point. Mind you, the two guys around him (Nadeau and Ritchie) I have higher as well, so I'll chalk that up to Wheeler-isms.
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just curious, but what is the basis of your projection? is his production this year factored in?
 
runninglow said:
"18-year old season" is subjective. Draft year is the way to go. I get that there could be an 11-month difference, but you'll spin yourself into circles trying to compare age and draft year.
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I don't see any difference quality-wise in using the date of the draft age cutoff vs the age as of Jan.1. The Jan.1 cutoff is likely better in terms of comparing development because that is the cutoff used for age cohorts growing up in school sports and most youth leagues.

And it's especially important when there are overage draftees in a comparison - in those cases the "D+1" designation makes no sense at all.

in this case with the Kadri-Cowan comp, Kadri is 4.5 months younger than Cowan. in a D+1 he's 7.5 months older. But if you prefer to compare them by the year they are further apart in age, D+1:

Cowan 50gls/148pts
Kadri 53gls/145pts
 
leafman101 said:
According to hockeyprospecting model he has a 20% chance of being a 60+ point player. And that jumped significantly from his pre draft year. Another year like last year and it will jump again. He’s way better than Knies/Robertson IMO.
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yep - any model will (rightly) hold him down until he proves this wasn't just a one year blip.
 
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Think this is a good comp in terms of upside, size, skill level, snot, skating, high end PK producing.
 
The graph is using his height and weight at the combine in June 2023 fwiw. Stands to reason an 18 year old added an inch and some weight. Zeke’s numbers are from hockeydb, nhl.com, elite prospects etc
 
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