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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
I think it's fair to say that LGM is Marincining the fuck out of Hutch.

Which frankly is entirely fair. Hutch is a more than fine #3 and Marincin was a more than fine 7/8. But when they fucking come back every single year and suddenly become the longest serving Leafs of all-time it can become tiresome.
 

Deckie007

Well-known member
As far as veteran #3’s go, I’m sure Hutch is far from the bottom of the barrel.

Still, I dream of the day where our third string goalie is actually a promising young goalie, rather than a shitty vet that’s already washed out of being a full-time NHLer.
Joseph Woll:

1637783979596.png
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
remember when we kept Sparks of McElhinney?

a decision most of us supported at the time too...

That was as a backup though and we had to lose one. If we were faced with a near identical situation again today...a good backup in his mid 30's vs a young elite AHL starter, I make the same decision again...and again...and again. Literally every time we're faced with it.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
As far as veteran #3’s go, I’m sure Hutch is far from the bottom of the barrel.

Still, I dream of the day where our third string goalie is actually a promising young goalie pushing his way up onto the NHL roster, rather than a shitty vet that’s already washed out of being a full-time NHLer.

Could be Kallgren, but let the process happen organically and on merit. Woll has earned less than nothing in this organization. If Kallgren hadn't gotten hurt, we probably would have gotten a look at him instead.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Hutch stinks.

Yes, but he stinks by NHL standard. Woll might stink by ECHL standard. We just don't know yet because his shit play in the AHL hasn't gotten him pushed down to the ECHL yet on account of our goaltending pipeline looking something similar to this

 

leafman101

Well-known member
They finally started drafting goalies with those two Russian picks and signing Petruzelli (who is dominating the ECHL) after maybe drafting a goalie once every few years. Just keep picking goalies and then you won't have to force Woll's in or have Hutch's.
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
Hope he scores more...

So he doesn't count as a U19, missed the cutoff by about a month...but the most hopeful comparison I've found yet is Chris Kreider.

If we're kind and drop him into the U19 block, here's the closest comparables I can find when you take a combination of production and size into account.

Kreider 6'3 215- .4gpg/.61ppg
Frederic 6'3 209- .5gpg/1.1ppg
Roslovic 6'1 190- .28gpg/.72ppg
Thompson 6'7 218- .56gpg/.95ppg
Tuch 6'4 220- .38gpg/.76ppg
Compher 6'0 190- .31gpg/.89ppg
Biggs 6'2 205- .24gpg/.46ppg
K Hayes 6'5 220- .16gpg/.64ppg
Coyle 6'3 215- .19gpg/.70ppg


Knies 6'3 205- .42gpg/.75ppg

So if he turns into a Kreider, Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch type, I think we did alright.

Gonna bump this great work by ME occasionally to track where Knies falls. PPG now, although as he notes he is being kind to drop him into the U19 block. PPG or better would be solid as fuck I think. Tverberg looks great but he doesn't come close to making the cutoff to be included in this list. Not sure where he'd fall at his age but it has been impressive nonetheless!
 
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MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Gonna bump this great work by ME occasionally to track where Knies falls. PPG now, although as he notes he is being kind to drop him into the U19 block. PPG or better would be solid as fuck I think. Tverberg looks great but he doesn't come close to making the cutoff to be included in this list. Not sure where he'd fall at his age but it has been impressive nonetheless!


Closest offensive production comparables at 19 to Tverberg that made the show:

Tverberg: 1.23ppg
Jason Zucker: 1.21
Colin Wilson: 1.28
Krys Kolanos: 1.22
Devin Shore: 1.23
Nick Schmaltz: 1.24
Patrick Eaves: 1.21
Troy Terry: 1.29
Henrik Borgstrom: 1.16

A bunch of non NHL'ers in that range as well obviously. The good news is that from 1.16-1.30 there have been 15 guys in that range and of the 15, 6 didn't become NHL regulars in some capacity, so roughly better than a 50/50 shot at a NHL'er there. Just above 1.3 you start to see some higher end NHL'ers as well like Stepan, Vanek, & Jaden Schwartz.

If we're being kind to Knies and calling him a 18 yr old this season (technically started the season as one)

Knies: 1.00ppg
Caufield: 1.00
Beniers: 1.00
Turris: .97
Farabee: .97
Okposo: 1.00
Gaudreau: 1.00

There are more and it's a pretty hit and miss list. 1.00 would be the T-39th best 18 yr old season in NCAA history. The top 12 is almost entirely all impact players, and the rest very much more hit and miss but with some highlights, especially one Knies has been compared to before...JVR at 1.09
 

soco22

Well-known member
Think Covid is gonna make it hard to compare a lot of prospects to history at the same age for the last couple of years with all that’s gone on shutdowns and what not
 

Deckie007

Well-known member
Think Covid is gonna make it hard to compare a lot of prospects to history at the same age for the last couple of years with all that’s gone on shutdowns and what not
yeah last year is kind of a disaster for the NA based guys. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the Euro kids turned out better. That post draft year is a crucial indicator for future performance.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Closest offensive production comparables at 19 to Tverberg that made the show:

Tverberg: 1.23ppg
Jason Zucker: 1.21
Colin Wilson: 1.28
Krys Kolanos: 1.22
Devin Shore: 1.23
Nick Schmaltz: 1.24
Patrick Eaves: 1.21
Troy Terry: 1.29
Henrik Borgstrom: 1.16

A bunch of non NHL'ers in that range as well obviously. The good news is that from 1.16-1.30 there have been 15 guys in that range and of the 15, 6 didn't become NHL regulars in some capacity, so roughly better than a 50/50 shot at a NHL'er there. Just above 1.3 you start to see some higher end NHL'ers as well like Stepan, Vanek, & Jaden Schwartz.

If we're being kind to Knies and calling him a 18 yr old this season (technically started the season as one)

Knies: 1.00ppg
Caufield: 1.00
Beniers: 1.00
Turris: .97
Farabee: .97
Okposo: 1.00
Gaudreau: 1.00

There are more and it's a pretty hit and miss list. 1.00 would be the T-39th best 18 yr old season in NCAA history. The top 12 is almost entirely all impact players, and the rest very much more hit and miss but with some highlights, especially one Knies has been compared to before...JVR at 1.09

I actually wouldn't cheat and call him 18.

But the key here is that he is still a rookie and it is his first 14gms at the level - and iirc he started low in the lineup but is earning his way up. The eye test loves this kid and I think the stats will follow and maybe already are.

We definitely want him to be well over ppg to project nhl scoring but I think he's on his way there after already earning a role now as one of the go to guys at ES and the PP.

In his last 5gms he has 4gls and 9pts and it looks like he's just finding himself out there.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
They finally started drafting goalies with those two Russian picks and signing Petruzelli (who is dominating the ECHL) after maybe drafting a goalie once every few years. Just keep picking goalies and then you won't have to force Woll's in or have Hutch's.


Pick a goalie every year in the draft. Every year. You can stash these Euro kids for ages. Sorokin was a 3rd round pick in 2014 and required no development room or effort until he showed up on their doorstep as a .920+ 1A. Shesterkin was a 4th in 2014 who didn't require room in the organization until after he had posted a .9fucking53 in the KHL. 25 games in the AHL and .920+ in the league ever since. Saros a 4th rounder in 2013, showed up a few years later ready for the league, now a stud. Merlikins a 3rd and then hung out in Switzerland for 5 years. Ullmark a 6th rounder and then spent 4 years in Sweden.

Every year snag a Euro goalie in the mid rounds.
 

leafman101

Well-known member
Yeah, I don't think there is much value comparing Knies to 18 year olds. Overall he's having a solid, but unspectacular year for his age. He is tied for 10th in 19 year old production this season with Brett Berard and well behind the top producers (Savoie, Johnson are at 1.5 ppg, and Coronato, Tverberg, Doan and Beniers are at 1.2).

But he's been on fire lately and if he can keep that up he'll project really well. The skill set to be a complementary top 6 winger seems to be there. If he can produce at that level its a great sign.

Tverberg is interesting to follow because the Leafs traded for one of the last picks in the draft to take a guy their scouts loved and that was clearly on no one elses draft board. If nothing else, him exploding says something about their scouting.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
No no, we really need to be dedicating as much valuable developmental time in the Marlies crease as possible towards keeping this amazing specimen of human puck-stopping ability in tip-top shape, just in case the Leafs need him.

As much?

No.

As Kallgren's backup? Yeah.
 
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