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Les Habitants Prospects Thread

Home sickness is a thing
Also true. The human side of things.

I turned down work outside of Canada when I was 21 as well.
Sure, but you both know that athletes have a very limited shelf life and their window of opportunity isn't very big. There aren't many careers you're excluding yourself from because you chose to leave your country at 25 instead of 21. If he wants to make a career playing in the NHL, he has to play in North America. Kapanen's not good enough to just step in to the NHL the second he comes over.
 
So, was he forced to sign a contract that included a European clause? Or could have said, nah I'm good. or is that being too greedy?

I dunno, I guess Adam Engstrom's the biggest sucker in all of this.
 
So, was he forced to sign a contract that included a European clause? Or could have said, nah I'm good. or is that being too greedy?

I dunno, I guess Adam Engstrom's the biggest sucker in all of this.
I'm not the one that went on a giant rant without knowing someone's personal journey.

Honestly I have no idea
I'm also not convinced playing limited minutes with Laval was a good career choice.
 
I'm not the one that went on a giant rant without knowing someone's personal journey.

Honestly I have no idea
I'm also not convinced playing limited minutes with Laval was a good career choice.
We agree on something.

I have nothing against someone's personal journey. What people do with their lives is their own business and if some want to stay home instead of chasing career objectives, then good for them.

However.

It is objectively true that Kapanen would have a better chance at making the NHL right now if he was in Laval than if he was in Sweden, for the simple fact that he could get called up at any point if he's in Laval and he would be getting used to playing in a league with more physicality.

Kapanen could make the NHL despite staying in Europe an extra year, sure. My point is that he is not good enough to simply walk into the NHL and stick. He's a fringe player and he needs to put all of the odds in his favor.

Excluding goalies, close to 70% of all players in the NHL - roughly 80% when it comes to forwards - that have a career (defined as playing 400 or more games, enough to get a second contract without an AHL clause) in the league are established by the age of 22, the age Kapanen will have in next season's training camp. Established being defined as not being used as a yo-yo between the NHL & AHL and staying on an NHL roster as a permanent fixture. The biggest discrepancy are players who stay in college for three years like Mike Matheson, before heading to the AHL and then making it. Change the statistic to 23 years old and close to 90% of all the forwards in the NHL fit under this umbrella.

I would have the same opinion if someone like Jacob Fowler decided to return to Boston College for a third season. He's perfectly entitled to and if he feels that it would be better for his "personal journey", then good on him. But if his goal is to make the NHL and make a career out of it? Then going back to college for a third year is counter productive, even if he still makes the NHL later.
 
I'm a big believer in statistical probabilities. They're not a surefire way of evaluating things, but more often than not, they give me a very good idea of what to expect.

Extreme example: There's a roughly 0.000001% chance you win the lottery, and yet untold millions of tickets are sold every year. The probabilities that you're going to win the lottery are so small and you could play for ten lifetimes without winning. But there are people who win the lottery. It's not impossible, just as close to impossible as could be imagined.

Looking at the NHL for an example: Assuming all of the information is updated, there have been 289 defensemen who played one game in the NHL this year. Only 14 of them are 5'10" or smaller, meaning 95.2% of all those defensemen are 5'11" or taller. So if a team drafts a player like Lane Hutson, the player would already have two strikes against him in my book. That's not to say it's impossible he makes the league, but the odds are already stacked against him.

So, in short, I don't know if Kapanen's decision to have a European clause in his contract will prevent him from making the NHL. Time will tell. But in my eyes, staying in Europe is hurting his chances, not helping.
 
I'm a big believer in statistical probabilities. They're not a surefire way of evaluating things, but more often than not, they give me a very good idea of what to expect.

Extreme example: There's a roughly 0.000001% chance you win the lottery, and yet untold millions of tickets are sold every year. The probabilities that you're going to win the lottery are so small and you could play for ten lifetimes without winning. But there are people who win the lottery. It's not impossible, just as close to impossible as could be imagined.

Looking at the NHL for an example: Assuming all of the information is updated, there have been 289 defensemen who played one game in the NHL this year. Only 14 of them are 5'10" or smaller, meaning 95.2% of all those defensemen are 5'11" or taller. So if a team drafts a player like Lane Hutson, the player would already have two strikes against him in my book. That's not to say it's impossible he makes the league, but the odds are already stacked against him.

So, in short, I don't know if Kapanen's decision to have a European clause in his contract will prevent him from making the NHL. Time will tell. But in my eyes, staying in Europe is hurting his chances, not helping.
My only issue was when you said "any fucking sense"

I also don't think playing first line SHL is a bad thing. Now if next year he doesn't want to play AHL... Different story for his nhl career than his personal life.
 
I see Kapanen making the nhl but maybe not with us. He has good defensive instinct. Playing 1st line minutes o will help offensively.
 
Guys like Kapanen needs the right opportunity at the right time and make the most of it. He’ll have another shot but those windows of opportunities are few and far between. But Heineman miffed his first shot but made most of his second. They rarely have more than 3 shots though.
 
My only issue was when you said "any fucking sense"

I also don't think playing first line SHL is a bad thing. Now if next year he doesn't want to play AHL... Different story for his nhl career than his personal life.
If he wants to make a career in the NHL, it doesn't. It doesn't make one iota of sense. He's adding layers of difficulty when making the NHL is already going to be difficult for him.

There are players every year that start in the AHL, get called up, and then never get sent back. Heineman, a player that was basically an afterthought, made the team in camp after a year in the AHL. Kapanen could have done the same thing had he played in Laval this year, assuming he's good enough to make it.
 
If he wants to make a career in the NHL, it doesn't. It doesn't make one iota of sense. He's adding layers of difficulty when making the NHL is already going to be difficult for him.

There are players every year that start in the AHL, get called up, and then never get sent back. Heineman, a player that was basically an afterthought, made the team in camp after a year in the AHL. Kapanen could have done the same thing had he played in Laval this year, assuming he's good enough to make it.

No. He couldn't have because his contract didn't allow that.
 
The one thing helping Kapanen is that no one in Laval has seized the opportunity, but it hasn’t helped him either.
This is going to rehash a lot of the same old arguments that have been had here, but... which players were supposed to make it?

Roy's been a disappointment all year. Everyone knows my opinion of Owen "Ryan O'Reilly" Beck by now. Who's the third best forward as an NHL prospect currently on Laval's roster? Jared Davidson or RHP? Laval's forward group doesn't have much there.
 
No. He couldn't have because his contract didn't allow that.
I don't know why you're being obtuse about this point.

He's the one who agreed to a contract with that clause.

He's the one who signed his contract to play in Sweden when his Finnish contract was completed. He's the one who could have refused to sign that contract if that European clause was included. He signed his ELC with the Habs a month after signing that contract to play in Sweden.

This isn't a situation like Demidov where the player doesn't have control over his playing situation and just has to wait it out. He purposely signed that contract with that clause.

He & Adam Engstrom were both in the same boat last Spring. Both had their European contracts conclude at the end of their seasons and they were available to sign where they wanted, Europe, North America, Russia, whatever they wanted. Engstrom took the Habs's ELC without a European clause nor a contract with a European team, Kapanen signed a Swedish contract with a European clause, and then took the Habs' ELC.
 
This is going to rehash a lot of the same old arguments that have been had here, but... which players were supposed to make it?

Roy's been a disappointment all year. Everyone knows my opinion of Owen "Ryan O'Reilly" Beck by now. Who's the third best forward as an NHL prospect currently on Laval's roster? Jared Davidson or RHP? Laval's forward group doesn't have much there.
Good players don’t spend much time in the AHL.
 
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