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Necas Watch Thread...SIGNED

Any offer sheet Necas would be smart enough to sign should be large enough to ensure first, second and third round picks for the Canes. Would the Canes match would be the bigger question…only because of all the other business at hand this summer…if Necas is as unhappy here as the media likes to portray…would an offer sheet be in his best interests over a trade…I don’t think so.
 
To trigger a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, the AAV has to be at least $6,435,187. At that number, I don’t think the Canes would match.
 
From the article:

Currently, only 13 teams have the picks necessary to even tender an offer sheet in that range, although that number would increase if a team made that offer following the draft.
 
From the article:
I didn't read the article, but I've seen a few pieces speculating that St. Louis is a potential suitor via an offer sheet. They have the picks.

Most of what I've seen discussed is that the Canes would prefer to make a hockey trade and get NHL-ready players back for Necas versus picks. With that said, you have to view the picks plus the cap room not having to re-sign Necas would create as another means to add an attractive free agent.
 
Reading yesterday's article in The Athletic, it seems the Blues might consider an offer sheet. I agree that the Canes are looking for a hockey trade and a player that can play now, rather than later - but if an offer sheet is of interest to Necas, then the Canes will have to decide if a 1st (possibly a 2nd) and a 3rd pick is worth it. Interesting times.
 
When can teams extend an offer sheet to an RFA? I’m assuming it’s any time after 7/1/24, but am I correct?
 
To trigger a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, the AAV has to be at least $6,435,187. At that number, I don’t think the Canes would match.
I'm not 100% sure Necas agrees to that salary range, especially if it's a sketch team. St Louis, may have a shot though. From what I've seen, while the press is acting like the Canes want the moon for a trade, it sounds like they're looking for basically the same package that the Kings put together for PLD ... who is a less productive version of Necas, IMO. For some reason when Carolina digs in their heels on an ask it's some sort of over-reach, but when pretty much anybody else does it, they're just being shrewd.

The question for Tulsky is whether or not he can wheel and deal what he gets from an offer sheet into something close to the packages teams are offering. Adding a 1st, 2nd and 3rd to the Canes draft pick list would give them 2 picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds in 2025 and 1 in the 3rd. Maybe you can turn that into an impact NHLer and a depth guy ... maybe not. For my money, they're probably better off negotiating for something in the current draft but either way it's going to be less chaotic to just straight up trade the guy. Either way, waiting until late summer is going to be a problem so it's more than likely going to break either at the draft or pretty soon after the 7/1 window opens
 
I think the Canes and Tulsky will take Necas and their top summer trade chip into the weekend seeking a solid hockey trade...when you get every GM and team all together for a long weekend things tend to get accomplished or at least the foundation of something getting started. The previous mention of something similar to the PLD return seems fair for Necas if you can find a good dance partner.
 
Yeah, the thing is ... it's just not as simple as most people seem to think. "Just trade him for a top 6 center" sounds great, until you start looking for trade partners and players who would fit.

I'd think Necas' value is probably at its peak at the draft, but that doesn't mean it'll be easy to move him for what Carolina wants in return. This one could drag on.
 
LeBrun was at it again in The Athletic yesterday. His new nugget on Necas was that it looked like one team had gotten pretty close to cutting a deal with Carolina and discussions were ongoing. Basically, it involves a pick in this year's draft so if that happens it'll happen soon. He notes again that other GMs are grumbling about the price Carolina wants, but I'm sick of those comments frankly. You want a contending team to have a fire sale on one guy for what reason exactly? He also talked to Tulksy who shot down the idea that Carolina would let Necas walk on an offer sheet*. Again for those in the back THEY DON'T WANT PICKS, THEY WANT PLAYERS, although they might end up taking a combo platter.

* since a lot of this kind of article is fueled by info from agents, it's VERY obvious that there are a number of player agents who don't like dealing with Carolina. There ends up being a fair amount of what I'd call catty gossip about Carolina EVERY summer, and that's not an accident. Frankly, screw those guys. If all the agents love you, then you're probably buying out a lot of bad contracts. And if anyone wants an object lesson on why you don't take every player agent's opinion at face value, I present Sebastian Aho's agent's role in hosing Montreal in that offer sheet mess. I assume he's his former agent at this point.
 
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Interesting comments from Tulsky though.

If Necas wants to move he’s better off not signing an offer sheet and getting traded. If he signs an offer sheet we’ll match and he doesn’t move. At $9m/per that’s a lot. I don’t think anyone wants to give him that though. But that sounds like maybe a bluff. Would they indeed match at 9?
 
I think they would if the term isn't stupid, and while Tulsky is trying to walk Necas (and maybe the Blues) off the offer sheet ledge, over all he's not wrong. If we match then Necas has even less options than he has currently because Carolina can still move him but only to somebody willing to take on a stupid contract. Which would presumably be a narrow field. Although, to read these articles you'd think that Necas is the second coming of McDavid and only Carolina's stubborn insistence that he actually defend has been holding him back. So, every team should be lining up to hand him all of his dreams on a silver platter. Which is utter hogwash on so many levels that I lost count. Also, I have a hard time believing that anybody outside of the press corps is going to talk themselves into believing that Necas is both worth $9 million AND that he's an NHL center. Far more likely that any sheet would be one category down, which would be much easier to match.

Remember, any picks the Canes would get from an offer sheet would be in 2025, which does them much less good than you'd think. MUCH better to get at least one NHLer out of the deal. So, the Canes will negotiate pretty hard during the window should somebody pop an offer sheet on Necas.

I'll be thrilled when this is over.
 
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Interesting comments from Tulsky though.

If Necas wants to move he’s better off not signing an offer sheet and getting traded. If he signs an offer sheet we’ll match and he doesn’t move. At $9m/per that’s a lot. I don’t think anyone wants to give him that though. But that sounds like maybe a bluff. Would they indeed match at 9?
If I am Carolina... I don't match $9m. I just take the 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
 
* since a lot of this kind of article is fueled by info from agents, it's VERY obvious that there are a number of player agents who don't like dealing with Carolina. There ends up being a fair amount of what I'd call catty gossip about Carolina EVERY summer, and that's not an accident. Frankly, screw those guys. If all the agents love you, then you're probably buying out a lot of bad contracts.
They don’t like that Dundon isn’t part of the old boys network and the team has a collaborative approach. I also don’t know how much actual negotiating they do, since Dundon seems to have a range that he puts each player in.
 
I'd honestly be surprised if anyone was stupid enough to offer $9 million though, so I think a lot of that talk is irrelevant. On the next tier down, Carolina matches all day every day.
The level for triggering 3 picks is about $6.5 million. At the low end of the scale, I’d probably match, but north of $7 million, I’d think about taking the picks and moving on.
 
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