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New Canadian Politics Thread

anne25 said:
Well he certainly can memorize his lines. This morning When I was listening to him answering media questions. A question was asked and after Trudeaus response the reporter said ,that’s not what I asked so I’ll ask again. Trudeau gave the same word for word response.
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Scheer is the same. Seems Singh is the only one who can think on his feet

Watch the interview when he is asked about hosting Opus Dei. 3 times it was asked why and he responded like a robot
 
So today is the big day for canadian politics.

So I will go out on a limb and say the it will be a minority conservative government and that Trudeau will fall on the sword tonight.

(Thank God and I hope it is such a painful and horrific meltdown).

So I think the conservatives will get 151

The block with 35

The NDP with 60

The greens with 2

The independants with 2

The liberals with 88.

See you all in 18 months when the conservatives are defeated on their budget.

The biggest question will be if the NDP continue forward with Singh or he is jettisoned off into the abyss.
 
But I could also see a parting of the sea and a unicorn descending upon Singh as a sign that this is going to be the luckiest day of his life .... and every single moment gets tied together for his purpose and the NDP win a majority.
And canada will cease to exist as a nation at 1201 am.
 
Not sure if there will be another update this morning but last night the poll tracker updated and they have the libs gaining back most of the momentum they lost the past couple weeks - back ahead of the cons in the vote percentage, and back over 60% chance to win the election. Not quite where they were at the peak though.
 
I'm not going to pretend I have any idea how this is going to shake out today.

Going in to the campaign, I didn't think the Conservatives had a prayer of either winning a plurality of seats or forming a government with their national support being so heavily concentrated in the West, and with them looking DOA in Ontario.

But with Singh seemingly having done well in the campaign and the resurgence of the Bloc in Quebec, there's going to be a ton of 3-4 way races in Ontario and Quebec, with the Green party maybe even making it a 5-way race in some cases. Could make for a ton of randomness, and a whole bunch of MP's winning their seats with somewhere around 30% of the vote in their riding (which could really help the CPC in Ontario especially).

My wish list for tonight:

  • Scheer ends up with no path to gaining the confidence of the house and becoming PM (which I suppose would mean the CPC & Bloc having fewer than 170 seats combined, even though I'm not convinced that the Bloc would support a CPC minority government)

  • Scheer resigning as CPC leader, or at least, the knives immediately start coming out for him within that party in the wake of a disappointing result.

  • As few seats as possible for the Bloc, specifically. Fuck going back to the days when one of the largest provinces in Canada vote in a bunch of obstructionist assholes instead of actually taking part in the governing of this country.

  • Maxime Bernier losing his own riding. What would be even funnier is if Doug Ford's allegedly alcoholic/drug-addict widow won her seat for the "Peoples Party", and she ended up as the standard-bearer for Bernier's vanity project of a party in parliament.

  • If the CPC does end up with a path to governing, hopefully we at least get Trudeau resigning as Liberal leader out of the deal.

  • Someone besides/in addition to Elizabeth May gets elected for the Green Party. Would be nice if that party could start moving towards being more than "the Elizabeth May party", and having another elected MP would do that.
 
Decent chance a bunch of the newly ndp-leanings get in the ballot box and get scared into voting lib anyways just at the prospect of scheer winning.
 
LeafGm said:
I'm not going to pretend I have any idea how this is going to shake out today.

Going in to the campaign, I didn't think the Conservatives had a prayer of either winning a plurality of seats or forming a government with their national support being so heavily concentrated in the West, and with them looking DOA in Ontario.

But with Singh seemingly having done well in the campaign and the resurgence of the Bloc in Quebec, there's going to be a ton of 3-4 way races in Ontario and Quebec, with the Green party maybe even making it a 5-way race in some cases. Could make for a ton of randomness, and a whole bunch of MP's winning their seats with somewhere around 30% of the vote in their riding (which could really help the CPC in Ontario especially).

My wish list for tonight:

  • Scheer ends up with no path to gaining the confidence of the house and becoming PM (which I suppose would mean the CPC & Bloc having fewer than 170 seats combined, even though I'm not convinced that the Bloc would support a CPC minority government)

  • Scheer resigning as CPC leader, or at least, the knives immediately start coming out for him within that party in the wake of a disappointing result.

  • As few seats as possible for the Bloc, specifically. **** going back to the days when one of the largest provinces in Canada vote in a bunch of obstructionist assholes instead of actually taking part in the governing of this country.

  • Maxime Bernier losing his own riding. What would be even funnier is if Doug Ford's allegedly alcoholic/drug-addict widow won her seat for the "Peoples Party", and she ended up as the standard-bearer for Bernier's vanity project of a party in parliament.

  • If the CPC does end up with a path to governing, hopefully we at least get Trudeau resigning as Liberal leader out of the deal.

  • Someone besides/in addition to Elizabeth May gets elected for the Green Party. Would be nice if that party could start moving towards being more than "the Elizabeth May party", and having another elected MP would do that.
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the greens actually have two MPs as is, so they are moving beyond just May. and I expect them to take a few more seats in this election too.
 
zeke said:
Decent chance a bunch of the newly ndp-leanings get in the ballot box and get scared into voting lib anyways just at the prospect of scheer winning.
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I mean, this is anecdotal, but a couple of my friends, who I both thought were well to the left of me, voted Liberal in our Halifax riding. The riding is traditionally NDP and has the Greens deputy leader running too, so could go any colour that's not blue. but they got scared about Scheer winning, held their noses and voted Liberal.

enough people do this and more Justin here we come
 
Wayward DP said:
I mean, this is anecdotal, but a couple of my friends, who I both thought were well to the left of me, voted Liberal in our Halifax riding. The riding is traditionally NDP and has the Greens deputy leader running too, so could go any colour that's not blue. but they got scared about Scheer winning, held their noses and voted Liberal.

enough people do this and more Justin here we come
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Yeah the recent ndp surge is fine and all when it comes to polls...but it's easy to revert back to red when you actually get in the booth.

I mean I prefer jagmeet but it was an easy choice to go lib this morning.
 
Are any of our Russiagate supporters going to call for an inquiry into American meddling in the Canadian election?
 
BeLeafer said:
Are any of our Russiagate supporters going to call for an inquiry into American meddling in the Canadian election?
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zeke said:
Decent chance a bunch of the newly ndp-leanings get in the ballot box and get scared into voting lib anyways just at the prospect of scheer winning.
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As is tradition.

Though that'd mostly be in ridings where the CPC is competitive. In ridings where the CPC is a non-factor (like a lot of downtown Toronto ridings where they get 10% of the vote or less), I'm expecting the NDP to mop the floor with the Liberals this time around and wipe out the gains that ended up in Liberal column when NDP voters were either disillusioned with Mulcair's centrist platform or laser-focused on making sure Harper got the boot.


Wayward DP said:
the greens actually have two MPs as is, so they are moving beyond just May. and I expect them to take a few more seats in this election too.
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Yep, you're right. I'd forgotten that they'd recently elected an MP in a by-election.

I'd assumed their second MP was a floor-crosser from another party.
 
LeafGm said:
As is tradition.

Though that'd mostly be in ridings where the CPC is competitive. In ridings where the CPC is a non-factor (like a lot of downtown Toronto ridings where they get 10% of the vote or less), I'm expecting the NDP to mop the floor with the Liberals this time around and wipe out the gains that ended up in Liberal column when NDP voters were either disillusioned with Mulcair's centrist platform or laser-focused on making sure Harper got the boot.
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we'll see. those guys are likely the hardest core anti-Forders around, so might be extra motivated to ensure Scheer doesn't gain any power.
 
With Obama's intervention, the centre-left vote is likely to break Liberal rather than NDP, as it was possibly trending toward prior to his meddling.
 
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