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New Canadian Politics Thread

worm said:
she was elected as a protest vote and splitting the right vote
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Yeah, Altair doesn't seem to grasp that her election was a freak, one-off side-effect of the first-past-the-post system.

You take a governing PC party that's bogged down with the internal rot and accumulation of public bad will and scandals that come along with decades of being in power, split the right wing vote with a hard-right Wildrose splinter party that's too extreme and has too many "bozo eruptions" to entirely supplant the PC's as the party of all right wingers, and then you get the NDP sailing up the middle into a large majority, in spite of having 40.57% of the popular vote, as opposed to a combined 52.03% of the vote for the Wildrose and PC's.

There's probably some voter apathy you can throw into the equation too. Plenty of right-wing Albertans probably stayed home, both because of disillusionment with the choices available to them, and because they never imagined that the most conservative province in Canada would ever, even by accident, elect a left-wing government.
 
LeafGm said:
Yeah, Altair doesn't seem to grasp that her election was a freak, one-off side-effect of the first-past-the-post system.

You take a governing PC party that's bogged down with the internal rot and accumulation of public bad will and scandals that come along with decades of being in power, split the right wing vote with a hard-right Wildrose splinter party that's too extreme and has too many "bozo eruptions" to entirely supplant the PC's as the party of all right wingers, and then you get the NDP sailing up the middle into a large majority, in spite of having 40.57% of the popular vote, as opposed to a combined 52.03% of the vote for the Wildrose and PC's.

There's probably some voter apathy you can throw into the equation too. Plenty of right-wing Albertans probably stayed home, both because of disillusionment with the choices available to them, and because they never imagined that the most conservative province in Canada would ever, even by accident, elect a left-wing government.
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So you think that if Notley was able to get two or three pipelines build, unemployment was low and the economy was running hot albertans simply say thank you and elect Kenney anyways?

I really doubt that.
 
Hypothetically who gets credit for lines that are announced a year or two from now that were in the early stages prior to the election?
 
Altair said:
So you think that if Notley was able to get two or three pipelines build, unemployment was low and the economy was running hot albertans simply say thank you and elect Kenney anyways?

I really doubt that.
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Yes.

As long as there aren't two conservative parties fairly evenly splitting the vote in Alberta, it wouldn't have mattered if Notley built a couple of pipelines with her own two hands and personally cured cancer while she was at it. The most conservative province in Canada was not going to re-elect a political party on the left side of the political spectrum.

That's just the nature of Alberta politically. One freak election aside, the province's support for conservatives at both the provincial and federal levels is monolithic and multi-generational, considering they've been electing an unbroken string of Conservative governments going back to even before World War 2.

Every couple of generations, they do seem to get tired of particular political parties. For example, the Social Credit party ruled Alberta for 30+ years, before disappearing completely and getting replaced by the PC's. Then the PC's had their own 40 year run, before that party dissolved and morphed into the UCP. But it's always the exchange of one conservative party for another one. They're not like Quebec, who's entire electorate seemingly turns on a dime from one election cycle to the next.
 
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As the saying goes in Calgary, "Don't like the weather, wait 30 minutes. Don't like the government? Wait 30 years."
 
So Phillipino President Duterte threatens Trudeau with war if he doesn’t take his garbage back? Too funny.
 
Just checked poll tracker and yikes.

CPC 36.6 percent poll average.

LPC 30.8

NDP 15.1

Greens 8.7

Bloc 5.0( I thought they were dead)

PPC 2.7

Holy are the liberals ever going to get smashed this fall.

PM Scheer. Gross.
 
There’s a long way to go yet. Trudeau seems to be the weak link for the Liberals and I’m not sure his trying to paint all conservatives as all being right wing racist is a winning ploy.

He does have one big advantage though. He will be handing out (as he should) lots of goodies for the unfortunate flood victims as well as the canola farmers who are being squeezed by China. That might help overshadow his SLN Lavalin and possible Admiral Norman court case.

But that still leaves his smugness to get under control.
 
Altair said:
Just checked poll tracker and yikes.

CPC 36.6 percent poll average.

LPC 30.8

NDP 15.1

Greens 8.7

Bloc 5.0( I thought they were dead)

PPC 2.7

Holy are the liberals ever going to get smashed this fall.

PM Scheer. Gross.
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Canadians don't care about SNC

Checks poll tracker.

CPC 36.9

LPC 29.6

NDP 15. 7

Greens 9.2

BQ 5.0

PPC 2.2

Lol.

40 percent probability that Scheer wins a majority.
 
Trudeau is really going to have to take it to another level in the debates.

I am legit fearful of the PC’s having a majority. Doug Ford is already having an impact on my family and children. With Scheer as the federal guy is going to be the final nail.
 
Too soon for me to see what impact a Ford government will have on my family but I do know that the Wynn governments impact had/has and it certainly was not sunshine and lollipops.

Federally I’m conflicted. I really don’t know what Sheer’s platform will be. I know what the Liberals say much of it it will be but experience suggests that they are not always accurate.

Regardless of who the people choose, or in the case of living with a Ford government, we like most people will do their best to adapt to any changes. That is and has been my experience over the course of many, many government changes that I survived.
 
anne25 said:
Too soon for me to see what impact a Ford government will have on my family but I do know that the Wynn governments impact had/has and it certainly was not sunshine and lollipops.

Federally I’m conflicted. I really don’t know what Sheer’s platform will be. I know what the Liberals say much of it it will be but experience suggests that they are not always accurate.

Regardless of who the people choose, or in the case of living with a Ford government, we like most people will do their best to adapt to any changes. That is and has been my experience over the course of many, many government changes that I survived.
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Ontario had its lowest unemployment rate in 27 years under Wynne. People were working, public services were flowing and the government was starting to congratulate people for doing much needed environmentally friendly things.

Wynne didn't get blown out because of policy -- she got blown out due to factors she couldn't control. Our families were better off under Wynne than the already are under Ford. Thousands of people have been laid off, programs have been shut down and the environment has become an afterthought.
 
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Altair said:
Canadians don't care about SNC

Checks poll tracker.

CPC 36.9

LPC 29.6

NDP 15. 7

Greens 9.2

BQ 5.0

PPC 2.2

Lol.

40 percent probability that Scheer wins a majority.
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Outlier polls are impacting these numbers. The Cons are in good shape, but most polls only have them ahead by 2-4 points. The Libs were even ahead in one poll not too long ago.

With that, this is Scheer's election to lose now. I suspect they do the same thing Ford did. Don't talk about policy or release anything major on paper. Just stick to populist messaging, continue to divide and win the election.

The environment is the most important issue in this election, but the fact is that most voters don't give two ****s about it is good news for right wing leaders.
 
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