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New Canadian Politics Thread

TheCountofMonteCristo said:
There are 343 seats so majority is 172 iirc

Liberals and NDP maybe will get 60 (not guaranteed), Bloc will get maybe 40, that leaves 243 for Pierre.

Even if Bloc won 50-55 of the 78 which is unlikely, that still gives Pierre 225+

338 Canada has it 225Con 47 Liberal (likely too high given recent events), Bloc 45, NDP 23 and Green 2.

Your dream of Trudeau shit pump annihilating Pierre is about as likely as Harris getting north of 320.

Just accept that by this time next year, we will have a Cons govt.
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I can’t really foresee any eventuality where the CPC doesn’t win the next election. But 225+ seats is an insane prediction.

Even Jean Chrétien at the height of his popularity, going up against a divided & discredited right and moribund NDP never managed to pull in that kind of margin of victory in the seat count.

So I have a pretty hard time imagining a guy as thoroughly unlikeable and polarizing as Pierre managing to pull it off. Though Justin still being the sitting PM come election time obviously would help his chances.
 
Difference for Jean was he faced two very strong regional parties in 1993, Reform in west which took over 54 AND Bloc who got over 52, Jean won 177. There only 295 seats at the time.

1997 Jean won 155 with Reform and Bloc winning 100, there were 301 total seats.

2000 172 with 104 for Bloc and Reform again out of 301.

We have more seats and other than the Bloc, opposition is spread out so no concentration like Reform.

225 seems high but since Cons basically sweep west, most of Ontario outside Toronto and much of Atlantic, it isn't unrealistic.
 
lecoqsportif said:
They’re on track to win 905 - and that’s the ballgame right there.
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If everything breaks right for the Libs/NDP, JT gets points for standing up to Trump, etc... MAYBE they can hold the CPC to like 180 or 190 seats.

Although in Canada, the difference between 180 and 220 is basically zero. I can't imagine the CPC getting close enough to 50% that it would even be close, where a few resignations here or there are close enough to even make them have to think about counting numbers before a vote.

The real question now is whether the Liberals can stay above the Bloc as the official opposition. And then after that whether the NDP can regain anything to actually gain from their current standings.
 
wonder how many more elections Jagmeet gets to muddle through before the NDP consider replacing him.

federal NDP leader is typically a really lucrative and easy gig. unless your name is Tom.
 
TheCountofMonteCristo said:
Difference for Jean was he faced two very strong regional parties in 1993, Reform in west which took over 54 AND Bloc who got over 52, Jean won 177. There only 295 seats at the time.

1997 Jean won 155 with Reform and Bloc winning 100, there were 301 total seats.

2000 172 with 104 for Bloc and Reform again out of 301.

We have more seats and other than the Bloc, opposition is spread out so no concentration like Reform.

225 seems high but since Cons basically sweep west, most of Ontario outside Toronto and much of Atlantic, it isn't unrealistic.
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Even accounting for the difference in total seats by going with percentage of seats, the Chrétien Liberals topped out at about 60% of seats in parliament. 225 for Poilievre would be 67%. So I’m just not seeing it.

Maybe if they were competitive in Quebec, it’d be possible. But Poilievre is loathed in Quebec, so the Bloc will probably continue to do as well as they ever have and the CPC will be shut out of all but 10 or so Quebec ridings.

So to get up to 225, they’d really have to clean up on all the existing Liberal & NDP seats out west, and then annihilate the Liberals in Ontario and the Maritimes.

Not that it matters all too much though. A majority is a majority.
 
most recent polling I saw in the Atlantic provinces had JT closing the gap on PP quite a bit compared to previous. not that there are many seats out here in any event
 
Wayward DP said:
wonder how many more elections Jagmeet gets to muddle through before the NDP consider replacing him.

federal NDP leader is typically a really lucrative and easy gig. unless your name is Tom.
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He’ll definitely try to hold on as long as possible. But if he fails to convince disaffected anti-CPC Liberal voters to park their votes with him and/or finishes behind the Liberals in the next election, the knives probably come out for him.

And it might be a bit of a long-shot, but if there does end up being a true blue wave of center/Center-right Liberal supporters switching to the CPC, combined with an apathetic turnout from Lib/NDP supporters, I think there’s a non-zero chance that he might lose his “home” riding out in BC.

If that happens, then he’s done. No one’s resigning their seat so that Jagmeet could take a second crack at getting back into Parliament.
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
Whatever happens as long as Pee-Pee doesn't get a majority his tenure will be short. Probably won't survive a vote on the budget just like what happened to Joe Clark.

But just like Harper, the Cons will keep winning (even if only a minority) unless or until the Liberals have a proper candidate to run against him. Part of the reason why Harper lasted so long was the parade of Liberal sock puppet leaders like Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff.

The NDP will never govern, especially not with Jagoff. If neither Mulcair not Layton could do it there's no way Singh will.
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I’m sorry to disappoint you, but he is going to have an overwhelming majority.

It’s going to be fun watching him dismantle all the woke nonsense that the fucking cuck left behind.
LeafGm said:
Yeah, that is literally what he is.

He was “hired” by the Federal NDP when Justin was at the height of his popularity, and the NDP decided that they needed their own knock-off version.
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I participated a lot in that leadership race. They were desperate for a person of color. They wanted their Obama. I wanted Charlie Angus.

But instead, we’ve got Trudeau in a turban or a bearded Obama.

They decided to go with the diversity pic instead of the talent
 
Stinky said:
I’m sorry to disappoint you, but he is going to have an overwhelming majority.

It’s going to be fun watching him dismantle all the woke nonsense that the fucking cuck left behind.

I participated a lot in that leadership race. They were desperate for a person of color. They wanted their Obama. I wanted Charlie Angus.

But instead, we’ve got Trudeau in a turban or a bearded Obama.

They decided to go with the diversity pic instead of the talent
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You think PP is the talent? For serious?
 
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