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New Canadian Politics Thread

CaptainBolduke said:
20 percent vote for the Liberals is a collapse. There are no tight 3-way races remaining. Maybe 1 or 2 I guess. The only races left are in areas where the NDP are irrelevant or simply don't have enough support. That's their fault. Not the voters.

This lose is on the NDP now. They have no excuses.
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https://www.scribd.com/document/380406307/Ontario-Proj-28-05-2018-Detailed

Ajax

Brampton South

Cambridge

Etobicoke North

Hastings—Lennox and Addington

Huron—Bruce

Kitchener—Conestoga

Mississauga Centre

Orléans

Ottawa South

Ottawa West—Nepean

Peterborough—Kawartha

Pickering—Uxbridge

Scarborough—Guildwood

York Centre

York—Simcoe

All seats that the PCs are likely to win with support in the high 30s, low 40s percent support with the NDP within fighting distance.

The vote split is brutal, because to date, the liberals vote hasn't collapsed enough.
 
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zeke said:
eh, structurally the NDP are always at a big advantage. they are the only party perceived as an extreme party, while the other two are seen as left-center and right-center.

it's a wonder really that either of the NDP or Libs are in charge of all but one government in canada right now, tbh.
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2. Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
 
Altair said:
https://www.scribd.com/document/380406307/Ontario-Proj-28-05-2018-Detailed

Ajax

Brampton South

Cambridge

Etobicoke North

Hastings—Lennox and Addington

Huron—Bruce

Kitchener—Conestoga

Mississauga Centre

Orléans

Ottawa South

Ottawa West—Nepean

Peterborough—Kawartha

Pickering—Uxbridge

Scarborough—Guildwood

York Centre

York—Simcoe

All seats that the PCs are likely to win with support in the high 30s, low 40s percent support with the NDP within fighting distance.

The vote split is brutal, because to date, the liberals vote hasn't collapsed enough.
Click to expand...

Most of these are not 3 way races. Some places simply won't vote NDP. That's the NDP's fault. Not the voter.
 
CaptainBolduke said:
The PC's. Their demo is older and has more flexibility.
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isn't it the opposite?

don't working people need the more flexible voting hours more?

regardless, I'm trying to think of this more along the "voter enthusiasm" line - if more people than usual are motivated to vote this year, what kind of "new" voter is that bringing out?
 
Justin Ling @Justin_Ling
58m
Ok, questions. "We're shocked," says Ford of the lawsuit. "I'll let you decide the motive."

Justin Ling @Justin_Ling
59m
"Those claims are false and without merit, and I can tell you that it's going to be proven in court," says Ford about how Deco Labels is doing financially.

Justin Ling @Justin_Ling
55m
Q: Will you make the audited statements from Deco public?
Ford: it'll be proven in court...this isn't about Deco.

Justin Ling
@Justin_Ling
Ford asked again about the lawsuit. Still no answer about Deco's financials. Also won't answer why his team outed Renata's personal problems.
 
BeLeafer said:
This will likely do some damage. The most damaging part to Ford is likely the news that his management of Deco has apparently sunk the company into consistent losses. The guy is a blowhard know-nothing and that just fits the pattern.

That said, the bigger recent news is Wynne conceding defeat. A large number of Liberal supporters were until recently still believing the Liberals could win.

The most recent reliable poll out is from weekend polling. It usually takes a few days for news like that to move the needle.

The NDP has a good chance here if enough Liberal voters want to stop Ford. The lawsuit may also cause a good number of Tory supporters to sit on their hands. This thing is by no means in the bag for the Tories.
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smells like Alberta to me
 
zeke said:
eh, structurally the NDP are always at a big advantage. they are the only party perceived as an extreme party, while the other two are seen as left-center and right-center.

it's a wonder really that either of the NDP or Libs are in charge of all but one government in canada right now, tbh.
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Not this time. They have no excuse to lose this election. If they do, it's on them.
 
zeke said:
isn't it the opposite?

don't working people need the more flexible voting hours more?

regardless, I'm trying to think of this more along the "voter enthusiasm" line - if more people than usual are motivated to vote this year, what kind of "new" voter is that bringing out?
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Young people work. Ontario has it's lowest employment rate in 25 years.

Also, there is a large group of Ontarians that will vote for the first time this election. And it will be for the PC's. Ford has created a new base for the PC's.
 
CaptainBolduke said:
Young people work. Ontario has it's lowest employment rate in 25 years.
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er, exactly? working people need to vote early when they know they're going to be working on election day. retired people vote on election day, because they have nothing else to do.

Also, there is a large group of Ontarians that will vote for the first time this election. And it will be for the PC's. Ford has created a new base for the PC's.
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that's more along the lines of what I'm wondering.
 
zeke said:
er, exactly? working people need to vote early when they know they're going to be working on election day. retired people vote on election day, because they have nothing else to do.



that's more along the lines of what I'm wondering.
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as a government employee I get a mandatory three hours off on election day. that and the fact that my polling station is in my backyard, whereas my returning office is much farther away, and this will be the first time I do not vote in advance.

but in general, I'm stumped as to the significance of the large turnout early on. I think that the higher the turnout the less rosy the picture for the PCs, but that could be wrong too.
 
Seems like kind of a fool's game to definitively state at this point what the early voting means.

Could be new "Ford Nation" voters turning out to vote PC. It could be the same young people that came out to vote for Trudeau coming out both to cast a vote against Ford, and because the NDP has a chance at power in Ontario for the first time in a generation. It could be a pretty even split between the two.
 
zeke said:
we can't know, but it's fun to speculate.
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Yeah, I agree, it's worth talking about---that comment was moreso in response to Bolduke stating with absolute certainty that the early voting favours the PC's.
 
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