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New Canadian Politics Thread

Altair said:
Yeah, what we have all been seeing. The liberal vote stubbornly refuses to shift to the other left wing party. The compete opposite of 2015 when the NDP collapsed and their voters went liberal.

Kudos for them on voting their conscience (like libertarians in 2016) but shame they didn't jump on the anyone but ford bandwagon.
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I really can't understand the mindset of anyone who's still casting a vote for the Liberals, at this point.

I hope those morons enjoy the Doug Ford show.
 
LeafGm said:
I really can't understand the mindset of anyone who's still casting a vote for the Liberals, at this point.

I hope those morons enjoy the Doug Ford show.
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Ya, same. Liberal voters knew what they needed to do, they are too stubborn to do it, Doug Ford is thankful.

Let's see how the next 4 years go. Probably not well.
 
LeafGm said:
I really can't understand the mindset of anyone who's still casting a vote for the Liberals, at this point.

I hope those morons enjoy the Doug Ford show.
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if people think the Libs deserve to govern, they should vote for them.

as much as I loathe Ford, I cannot get behind strategic voting. too many assumptions, too unpredictable. rarely seems to ensure the result sought after. I mean I don't begrudge people who want to vote this way, but as of yet I have been unable to bring myself to do it.
 
Wayward DP said:
if people think the Libs deserve to govern, they should vote for them.

as much as I loathe Ford, I cannot get behind strategic voting. too many assumptions, too unpredictable. rarely seems to ensure the result sought after. I mean I don't begrudge people who want to vote this way, but as of yet I have been unable to bring myself to do it.
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As long as these liberal voters don't whine about Doug later I guess.
 
Wayward DP said:
fat lady has not sung quite yet.

if we've learned anything in recent elections, it is that the polls cannot always be trusted
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Meh. Already voted. Not NDP. I don't think I'm going to watch the results tomorrow either. Ontario is dumb.
 
Wayward DP said:
if people think the Libs deserve to govern, they should vote for them.

as much as I loathe Ford, I cannot get behind strategic voting. too many assumptions, too unpredictable. rarely seems to ensure the result sought after. I mean I don't begrudge people who want to vote this way, but as of yet I have been unable to bring myself to do it.
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It also really depends on the ridings. I mean, there's a ton of downtown Toronto seats which aren't going Ford, so the Liberals continuing to pull 30-35% in those ones means nothing. Like I live in Spadina-Fort York - I voted Lib because I know there's no hope in hell Ford is winning.

And then you have the seats just outside the downtown core (Vaughan, North York) where the NDP would just have too much ground to pick up to win those, and the demographics really don't support those ridings going NDP. Those seats are ones where the Liberals will stubbornly believe they're the 2nd place party and the NDP should vote Liberal to keep the PCs out, and the NDP believes they're the 2nd party and Liberals should vote NDP. But because we don't really have direct polling down to the riding level, nobody really knows what's going on locally. So in the end, there's going to be a bunch of ridings where the PCs will pull 40%, and the Lib and NDP will both be around 30. Strategic voting can work if you know what's going on, but we just don't dig down enough to the local level.

Now, that being said, if the NDP started moving into the 40s provincially, then there'd be a much more legit claim that they could oust the PCs in those outer-416 seats, and then it would make more sense for the Lib vote to give in to them out there.
 
UWHabs said:
It also really depends on the ridings. I mean, there's a ton of downtown Toronto seats which aren't going Ford, so the Liberals continuing to pull 30-35% in those ones means nothing. Like I live in Spadina-Fort York - I voted Lib because I know there's no hope in hell Ford is winning.

And then you have the seats just outside the downtown core (Vaughan, North York) where the NDP would just have too much ground to pick up to win those, and the demographics really don't support those ridings going NDP. Those seats are ones where the Liberals will stubbornly believe they're the 2nd place party and the NDP should vote Liberal to keep the PCs out, and the NDP believes they're the 2nd party and Liberals should vote NDP. But because we don't really have direct polling down to the riding level, nobody really knows what's going on locally. So in the end, there's going to be a bunch of ridings where the PCs will pull 40%, and the Lib and NDP will both be around 30. Strategic voting can work if you know what's going on, but we just don't dig down enough to the local level.

Now, that being said, if the NDP started moving into the 40s provincially, then there'd be a much more legit claim that they could oust the PCs in those outer-416 seats, and then it would make more sense for the Lib vote to give in to them out there.
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that is the salient point for me.

I mean, I'm all aboard the 'keep Doug out bandwagon'. but I have not yet been convinced that 'strategic voting' can or will make that happen.

in my riding at least, the PCs won't win, so a strategic vote is pretty much moot. there are ridings where it could make a difference but short of all the voters having a conference before casting their ballots, I'm not sure how you guarantee the desired results. there is a big risk people outsmart themselves.
 
Wayward DP said:
if people think the Libs deserve to govern, they should vote for them.

as much as I loathe Ford, I cannot get behind strategic voting. too many assumptions, too unpredictable. rarely seems to ensure the result sought after. I mean I don't begrudge people who want to vote this way, but as of yet I have been unable to bring myself to do it.
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Look, I get it, and I generally agree. Since I became an adult, I've voted in every federal & provincial election, and never before have I ever voted strategically. I've always voted for whoever I think is the best option available, regardless of any wider considerations. In the past two provincial elections in Ontario, that's meant me voting for the Green party, because the Liberals & PC's were both truly awful, and I disagree fundamentally with too much of the NDP's core beliefs.

But this time around, when I look back through my entire life at all the serious candidates for high office that have run where I live & have the ability to vote, I feel that Doug Ford is worse than any of them by orders of magnitude. So, because of that, my normal playbook is getting tossed out the window.

All I care about is using my vote, small as it is, to support whatever happens to be the most likely way to prevent him from taking power.
 
I think it's a fundamental decision between "what do I want", and "what is the best likely outcome that I can potentially influence".

It's appealing to always vote for the party that best represents your views, but sometimes a wide angled view of the political situation needs to be incorporated into where you place your vote.
 
UWHabs said:
It also really depends on the ridings. I mean, there's a ton of downtown Toronto seats which aren't going Ford, so the Liberals continuing to pull 30-35% in those ones means nothing. Like I live in Spadina-Fort York - I voted Lib because I know there's no hope in hell Ford is winning.

And then you have the seats just outside the downtown core (Vaughan, North York) where the NDP would just have too much ground to pick up to win those, and the demographics really don't support those ridings going NDP. Those seats are ones where the Liberals will stubbornly believe they're the 2nd place party and the NDP should vote Liberal to keep the PCs out, and the NDP believes they're the 2nd party and Liberals should vote NDP. But because we don't really have direct polling down to the riding level, nobody really knows what's going on locally. So in the end, there's going to be a bunch of ridings where the PCs will pull 40%, and the Lib and NDP will both be around 30. Strategic voting can work if you know what's going on , but we just don't dig down enough to the local level.

Now, that being said, if the NDP started moving into the 40s provincially, then there'd be a much more legit claim that they could oust the PCs in those outer-416 seats, and then it would make more sense for the Lib vote to give in to them out there.
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https://www.scribd.com/document/380406307/Ontario-Proj-28-05-2018-Detailed

Hmm?
 
Altair said:
https://www.scribd.com/document/380406307/Ontario-Proj-28-05-2018-Detailed

Hmm?
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Hmmm...interesting note from that document.

This is the breakdown for Etobicoke-North, which is where Doug Ford is running for his seat:

PC: 36.3%
NDP: 36.5%
LIB: 25.1%
GRN: 2.1%

...imagine if the PC's won a majority, but Doug Ford lost in his own riding?

It'd be fascinating to see what the fallout from that would be.

And really, in this riding more than anywhere, you're a complete ****ing moron if you cast your vote for the Liberal candidate.
 
Altair said:
https://www.scribd.com/document/380406307/Ontario-Proj-28-05-2018-Detailed

Hmm?
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They're not polling the local level. They're just taking the provincial results and using a formula to apply it to the smaller regions. Like, the MOE for any local riding on that is massive. It's a useful tool, but all those spreadsheets are just taking generic changes and incumbency effects - they're not usually digging further to see which individual incumbents or challengers are more or less liked, or are better at retaining their vote, etc...
 
LeafGm said:
Hmmm...interesting note from that document.

This is the breakdown for Etobicoke-North, which is where Doug Ford is running for his seat:

PC: 36.3%
NDP: 36.5%
LIB: 25.1%
GRN: 2.1%

...imagine if the PC's won a majority, but Doug Ford lost in his own riding?

It'd be fascinating to see what the fallout from that would be.

And really, in this riding more than anywhere, you're a complete ****ing moron if you cast your vote for the Liberal candidate.
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Yeah, for sure, in ridings like that, retaining liberal support is a wasted effort. But there are other ridings (Willowdale, Don Valley XXX, Vaughan, etc...) where the Libs should be poaching NDP votes to stop the PCs from taking them.
 
LeafGm said:
Look, I get it, and I generally agree. Since I became an adult, I've voted in every federal & provincial election, and never before have I ever voted strategically. I've always voted for whoever I think is the best option available, regardless of any wider considerations. In the past two provincial elections in Ontario, that's meant me voting for the Green party, because the Liberals & PC's were both truly awful, and I disagree fundamentally with too much of the NDP's core beliefs.

But this time around, when I look back through my entire life at all the serious candidates for high office that have run where I live & have the ability to vote, I feel that Doug Ford is worse than any of them by orders of magnitude. So, because of that, my normal playbook is getting tossed out the window.

All I care about is using my vote, small as it is, to support whatever happens to be the most likely way to prevent him from taking power.
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I probably came off as overly dismissive of 'strategic voting'. I mean I definitely get it, especially in this election. But I haven't been able to bring myself to vote NDP (and I have voted NDP before provincially, just not in Ontario) solely because they are most likely to stop Ford.

Ironically, my local NDP candidate appears to be quite strong, so that may be the determining factor.
 
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