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New Canadian Politics Thread

zeke said:
for the record - there could be a surge in trumpy type infrequent voters surge for Ford as well.
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Yep. The more the 'elite' media crap on him, the more entrenched becomes the populist right wing vote. This helped Rob Ford win and will likely help Doug.
 
BeLeafer said:
Yep. The more the 'elite' media crap on him, the more entrenched becomes the populist right wing vote. This helped Rob Ford win and will likely help Doug.
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I also read a National Observer article about the suspected horde of twitter bots promoting pro-Ford, anti-Wynne, anti-Horwath messages. Accounts tweeting over 70 x / day, limited pretty much exclusively to political content that is populist and pro-Ford.
 
BeLeafer said:
Yep. The more the 'elite' media crap on him, the more entrenched becomes the populist right wing vote. This helped Rob Ford win and will likely help Doug.
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I love the idea of "elite" media in Ontario. Most reporters in Ontario are paid peanuts. I understand when someone is called an "elite" it doesn't necessarily reflect their income, but it's dumb as **** to not include it.

By the correct definition Ford is the most elite person running in this election (of the leaders).
 
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CaptainBolduke said:
I love the idea of "elite" media in Ontario. Most reporters in Ontario are paid peanuts. I understand when someone is called an "elite" it doesn't necessarily reflect their income, but it's dumb as **** to not include it.

By the correct definition Ford is the most elite person running in this election (of the leaders).
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That's why I used scare quotes ... total joke. They are priviledged with their megaphones relative to many, however.
 
zeke said:
huh, that's surprising.

So then we're left with just the variable you stated - can polling in the mobile age be accurate?
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It most certainly can. However, many have abandoned probability sampling. That's the biggest issue. All of the online polls you see are opt-in or non-probability. They are filled with professional respondents. Not to be trusted at all.

The ideal is to give everyone an equal probability of landing in your sample. 25 years ago RDD live telephone used to do this fairly well, as over 97% of the population had a landline.

Today, if you're doing telephone you need to blend mobile and landline in the sample to get near universal coverage. However, most who do this only use a small amount of cell phone sample because it's more expensive. This is really problematic when 85%+ are primary cell phone users. Forum, for instance, uses less than 15% cell in their sampling last I checked. That will result in a severe undersampling of younger voters and immigrants but it just doesn't reflect the population.

This can be easily fixed by the proper balance of cell and landline using RDD IVR.
 
billionaires calling the ink-stained wretches "elites" is one of the best things about today's politics.
 
It's so hilariously phony.

I mean, Ford is a second-generation politician who grew up rich and inherited $15-20 million in cash/investments plus a thriving company from his dear old dad.

If that isn't an "elite", then who the **** is?
 
Yeah, this one was a total wipeout, I switched over from the Cup final to the news about seven minutes after the polls closed, and they were already projecting a PC majority with Ford winning his own riding by over 1000 votes. The next four years are going to be a gong-show.
 
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