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CPC vote is pretty resilient. The story, so far anyway, is the collapse of the NDP and erosion of BQ vote. It’s almost all going to the LPC. Carney/Trump factor did claw back previous liberal voters, but that would only get them back to a dogfight with the CPC.

The strong majority is being caused by the NDP meltdown and the weak BQ.

If the LPC’s fortunes are decline, I think it’ll be due to a resurgence of the BQ.

NDP ded.
 
Liberals have won Nepean by 12, 13, and 16 points in the last 3 elections with a backbencher. I think it’s a pretty safe seat for Carney.

PP’s margins were 15, 8 and 3 in the same
elections.

I think they’ll both win handily fwiw.
 
As a purely hypothetical question though, what happens if a party leader fails to win his seat largely depends on how the party as a whole does.

If the party does well enough in the election and the leader is popular enough to hang on to the party leadership, they’ll remain the leader but will be unable to sit in Parliament. Eventually, they’ll find a back-bench MP in a safe seat who’s willing to step aside, and the leader will run for that seat in a by-election.

An example of this is John Tory after the 2007 Ontario election. The PC’s lost the election and Tory failed to win his own seat, but managed to just barely hang on to the PC leadership. After several months of leading the PC’s without a seat in the legislature, he finally convinced one of his MPP’s to step aside so he could run for her seat. Hilariously, he lost that bye-election too and then finally quit as PC leader.

The other scenario is where a party leader loses both their own seat and the general election so badly that they immediately see the writing on the wall and quit as party leader. This is what happened with Michael Ignatieff, and it’s likely about to happen to Jagmeet Singh as well.
 
Leafyblue said:
and May.
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Man, are the Greens ever weird.

First, the fact that May’s back in charge again. Second—this whole goofy “co-leader” arrangement she has with a dude who finished 4th with 13% of the vote in his previous election and is again polling an extremely distant 4th in his current riding.

And all this while they have an actual sitting Green MP from Kitchener who’s polling in the lead there again this election.

All that being said, I’m not convinced May will actually lose her seat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see things swing back her way if the national polling stays where it is and voters there figure it’s “safe” to vote for May.
 
LeafGm said:
Man, are the Greens ever weird.

First, the fact that May’s back in charge again. Second—this whole goofy “co-leader” arrangement she has with a dude who finished 4th with 13% of the vote in his previous election and is again polling an extremely distant 4th in his current riding.

And all this while they have an actual sitting Green MP from Kitchener who’s polling in the lead there again this election.

All that being said, I’m not convinced May will actually lose her seat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see things swing back her way if the national polling stays where it is and voters there figure it’s “safe” to vote for May.
Click to expand...
Goofy part is that if Justin was still leader, his riding might be the safest of the various party leaders (granted the party fortunes wouldn't likely be what they are now).
 
BG said:
Making the facebook rounds with Conservative voters:
View attachment 25760
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The provinces are breaking healthcare because healthcare is a provincial jurisdiction. Why do conservatives not know how the fuck anything works?

And insofar as the election is about "change", Carney represents that change. He is a complete outsider whereas Pee-Pee has been an MP his entire adult life to the exclusion of anything else. If anyone needs to go, it's him, not the Liberals.
 
I haven't heard any "Governor Carney" or "51st State" shit in a minute, and that was always the precondition to speaking.

So no, not mad at all.

An agreement with Trump here isn't going to change anything about the work we're going to do after, regardless of how good (or bad) a deal is. We could sign USMCA 2.0 tomorrow and Carney is still going to move forward with deepening ties to Europe, building out energy infrastructure in Canada to get the east off of US petroleum products, etc.

Nothing would change other than the end of this goofy trade conflict.
 
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