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OT: American Politics

eh I'm not sure how much any of it matters, particularly at this point.

the election is gonna be decided in like six states. so the national numbers aren't super important.

and it's also the summer. I don't mind looking at trends over time but trying not to get too wrapped up in the minutiae of the individual polls...
 
zeke said:
but remember that last Biden v Trump election, Biden's lead in the polls at this time was very large, and the actual election results were much closer than his polling lead.

I was prepared to believe that the polls had overcompensated, but for the polls to go from a significant biden skew all the way to an equally signifianct trump skew is still a bit of a stretch to me. I can except a small trump skew, but once it started going solidly over the MOE it was too much imo.
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At the root of my argument, I'm not suggesting a specific ideologic bent in the polling (the flooding the zone shit aside. Any pollster with less than a B+ rating simply shouldn't be published imo). Just that analyzing the crosstabs for weirdo outlier data is a necessity in understanding the topline.
50-50 with a 2.5% MoE means that the poll isn't "wrong" if the result of the election ends up 52.5-47.5. The only way to be more accurate in guessing which way it will break is by looking at the crosstab data and looking for data that is super unlikely to be true over nation sized samples.
 
Preston said:
Any decent model oughta account for some of that stuff. Seems like 538 is the most on the same page as you. By the end they had Biden slightly behind Trump.
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That's the point of aggregating...MoE should fluctuate both ways around the true centre. But then, that's the point of flooding the zone with bullshit, to create a fictional reality in the polling to build media and comms narratives around.

When polling averages use junk polls, they also become junk. When they're strict about which pollsters they use, they remain useful.
 
hockeylover said:
I would just say that I agree that if a poll shows a virtual toss up but also weird cross tabs which seem to buck historical election trends, then I feel like you can probably push it in that direction. Like one yesterday had Trump getting double the black vote he had the last two times against Kamala.
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I do think there were still good reasons to think Biden had a chance to pull it out.

- he actually seemed to have a real edge with the Olds, the most reliable voters. I never quite believed it but that's what the polls kept saying. The youth vote is both the hardest to sample (i.e. impossible) and the least likely to vote, so that was a crosstab i was usually willing to ignore or at least diminish.

- the economy is just too good. While many people will say they don't like a good economy for political reasons, I still (naively?) believe that you can't actually lie your way to turning a good economy into a bad election issue. People feel a bad economy in their guts, in their everyday lives, not in their heads. When people are working and spending freely, I just don't think you can make them really believe that the economy is bad.
 
thehabhater said:
It has only been 5 days. Some on the right still think that Biden is the candidate.
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Even if we just look at the post-quitting last 3 days, we see what looks like an instant 4-5 point bump, just from changing the name on the ticket and before anyone has seen Kamala campaign. If that's true, and it kinda looks like it is, then at least now we have a re-set even race for Kamala to start from, so if she can perform she has a real chance to push those numbers in her favor. Of course, Trump is very, very, very good and finding and exploiting other canditates' weaknesses, so she better be ready. I think the key for her is to mostly ignore his attacks and just go all offense. Let him attack her for being too liberal, own it, and just go at him relentlessly for all his weaknesses.
 
MindzEye said:
At the root of my argument, I'm not suggesting a specific ideologic bent in the polling (the flooding the zone shit aside. Any pollster with less than a B+ rating simply shouldn't be published imo). Just that analyzing the crosstabs for weirdo outlier data is a necessity in understanding the topline.
50-50 with a 2.5% MoE means that the poll isn't "wrong" if the result of the election ends up 52.5-47.5. The only way to be more accurate in guessing which way it will break is by looking at the crosstab data and looking for data that is super unlikely to be true over nation sized samples.
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the whole thing about polling averages tho is that averaging all the polls together should result in an MOE much smaller than the MOE for any of the individual polls.
 
They can attack her for being a scary ol’ but when you remove the label, I still think most of what she stands for are fairly popular policies. Abortion in particular has been a winning message everywhere. I think just stick to the very popular shit and drill that home as much as possible.

And the admin being so strong on unions should really help in those states and all the unions followed her.
 
zeke said:
Even if we just look at the post-quitting last 3 days, we see what looks like an instant 4-5 point bump, just from changing the name on the ticket and before anyone has seen Kamala campaign. If that's true, and it kinda looks like it is, then at least now we have a re-set even race for Kamala to start from, so if she can perform she has a real chance to push those numbers in her favor. Of course, Trump is very, very, very good and finding and exploiting other canditates' weaknesses, so she better be ready. I think the key for her is to mostly ignore his attacks and just go all offense. Let him attack her for being too liberal, own it, and just go at him relentlessly for all his weaknesses.
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The numbers will go up. And continue to do so. It is too early for anything. The momentum from the Dem convention will tell the tale.

If Trump is stupid enough to debate Harris, She will mop the floor with him. He was too stupid to take advantage of Biden during the first debate.
Harris won't hold back.
 
thehabhater said:
The numbers will go up. And continue to do so. It is too early for anything. The momentum from the Dem convention will tell the tale.

If Trump is stupid enough to debate Harris, She will mop the floor with him. He was too stupid to take advantage of Biden during the first debate.
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the key for Kamala is for her to show...er....BALLS. Tump preys on weakness and if she gets defensive he can score points.

last campaign she dissappointed me by resorting to schtick instead of substance. for me that was a lack of confidence probably.
 
zeke said:
the key for Kamala is for her to show...er....BALLS. Tump preys on weakness and if she gets defensive he can score points.

last campaign she dissappointed me by resorting to schtick instead of substance. for me that was a lack of confidence probably.
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I have no doubt that Kamala will kick ass. Abortion is, and deserves to be, a major issue in this election. While men can be empathetic on the issue, it is literally a life and death issue for women.

She will deliver the votes on the issue in a way that no man could.

Her ads mocking Trump are going to be priceless.
 
LeafGm said:
I doubt he’d ever openly admit to being a Trumper.

He’d probably continue with his usual shtick of pouring a never-ending stream of invective on the Dems—and only the Dems—while never saying a single unkind thing about Trump or the Republicans.

And anyone who suggests he supports Trump will be met with him condescendingly insinuating they’re a MSM-brainwashed rube not on his intellectual level.

And if he does openly declare support for anyone, it’ll either still be Bernie Sanders, or it’ll be Jill Stein or RFK Jr.
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So LN = Tim Pool?
 
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