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OT: American Politics

ok looking closer at the senate races looks like the biggest worry is montana.

dems have a very good chance to keep WI, PA, OH, MI, NV, AZ to keep them at 49.

But Montana looks pretty sketchy. And if they lose that then the only other real possibility to make up for it looks like taking down Cruz.
 
is there a reason you guys are worried about Ohio? i can't find many recent polls but that's because Brown seemed to be comfortably ahead.by 5-6 pts..
 
zeke said:
ok looking closer at the senate races looks like the biggest worry is montana.

dems have a very good chance to keep WI, PA, OH, MI, NV, AZ to keep them at 49.

But Montana looks pretty sketchy. And if they lose that then the only other real possibility to make up for it looks like taking down Cruz.
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yep totally right i think.

hopefully if young new voters are getting out and the dem side is enthusiastic about kamala and abortion measure (which seems on its way there) then he can pull one out
 
zeke said:
ok looking closer at the senate races looks like the biggest worry is montana.

dems have a very good chance to keep WI, PA, OH, MI, NV, AZ to keep them at 49.
coul
But Montana looks pretty sketchy. And if they lose that then the only other real possibility to make up for it looks like taking down Cruz.
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Here is a question for you. ( stats based so in your wheelhouse) In which senate races, where a Republican is running, could a block of new young voters flip the seat?
 
thehabhater said:
Here is a question for you. ( stats based so in your wheelhouse) In which senate races, where a Republican is running, could a block of new young voters flip the seat?
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that's a fun question.

I wonder.

I'm looking at montana, florida, and texas - dems just need one of those for 50-50 and the tiebreak. MT is closest, but as for your question i'd have to say that it would absolutely be florida or texas where a kamala bump could have the biggest effect, looking at both youth and ethnicity.
 
zeke said:
that's a fun question.

I wonder.

I'm looking at montana, florida, and texas - dems just need one of those for 50-50 and the tiebreak. MT is closest, but as for your question i'd have to say that it would absolutely be florida or texas where a kamala bump could have the biggest effect, looking at both youth and ethnicity.
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That would mean Scott in Florida and Cruz in Texas. Montana is already a Dem Senate seat, so they need to hold it.

The rest would be tough sledding

 
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