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OT: American Politics

hockeylover said:
i'm still not sure who is coming out in 2024 for trump that didn't bother to show up in 2020. it seems more likely he lost voters than gained.

and if there's no lack of enthusiasm on the dems side now, not sure how the math works for him.

they'll have to end up trying court shenanigans.
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Kamala will, as the President of the Senate, announce her own victory.

For the first time since George W. did it.
 
MindzEye said:
I don't know if I'm that optimistic....fuck, I thought I was pretty optimistic.

imo our most reasonable electoral college outcome is this, and I'm going to ignore #crosstabmafia talk for the moment and suggest the polls are more or less accurate within MoE and trend:

- Sweep the 5 states currently rated by 270towin as toss ups (MI,WI,PA, AZ,NV), that takes Kamala to 277.
- Flip GA (current lean red but recent polls put at a toss up) gets her to 293

After that we move into unlikely

- Flip NC (current lean red, and recent polls suggest that's holding) which would get Kamala to 309

This is probably where we have to board a bus to crazy town (which does get to where it's going on occasion) to see any other states go blue.
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Florida isn't as far as it appears based on some underlying values but it's not so in play to do anything but accept if it flips.
 
Wayward DP said:

View: https://x.com/gtconway3d/status/1818726580186964417
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zeke said:
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Jr might be pulling the double reverse grift on his old man.

Sick and tired of dealing with the old twit, tank his campaign so the old man either dies of stress and cheeseberder overdose, or flees the country. Jr is free to finally not wear a suit in public and do all the blow he can until his heart gives out. Long conning the old con.

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Either that or he's entirely incompetent.
 
Preston said:
I've never shied away from discussing my degenerate behavior on here! Unfortunately gambling is not one of those things. I take no joy out of putting money on something where I have zero control.
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Same here. Sadly.
Because buying metaphorical dips on FI isn’t paying off!!
 
Tryamw said:
Florida isn't as far as it appears based on some underlying values but it's not so in play to do anything but accept if it flips.
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I don't necessarily disagree, but I do want to see some data suggesting it's plausible within fuckery and MoE before I take it off the crazy bus route.
 
MindzEye said:
I don't necessarily disagree, but I do want to see some data suggesting it's plausible within fuckery and MoE before I take it off the crazy bus route.
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Alot of it comes down to the demographics of the newly registered. Which by nature will not be counted in polling data. Like I said I wouldn't put any money in but... I can hope
 
Tryamw said:
Alot of it comes down to the demographics of the newly registered. Which by nature will not be counted in polling data. Like I said I wouldn't put any money in but... I can hope
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I put that down with the fuckery. I know that 2020 census data, pollster estimates on LV/RV composition, and poll weighting are all various levels of cooked depending on region. We still need to see polls within 3-4 points for it to be plausible though.
 
CH1 said:
Same here. Sadly.
Because buying metaphorical dips on FI isn’t paying off!!
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And it's too bad because polymarket has some potentially interesting #crosstabs to exploit. It's a crypto based market. And we know which way crypto bros lean! But 1. I don't bet and 2. I don't hold crypto. So it is what it is!
 
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MindzEye said:
Jr might be pulling the double reverse grift on his old man.

Sick and tired of dealing with the old twit, tank his campaign so the old man either dies of stress and cheeseberder overdose, or flees the country. Jr is free to finally not wear a suit in public and do all the blow he can until his heart gives out. Long conning the old con.

walk-og.gif


Either that or he's entirely incompetent.
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9edb82a1b206ba865cbd503fe1e8fde5.gif
 
MindzEye said:
Why does the right wing struggle with multi racial identity? If she identifies as Indian and Jamaican...who the fuck cares?
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Because she’s lying!!!!!!! To get all the jobs!!!

That’s what all her nervous laughter is about.
 
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