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OT: American Politics

CH1 said:
Through my storytelling, and central casting lens, Shapiro is not my favourite…. But DEMs brain trust has the data and given all their right moves of late, I trust they have the reasons
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With how the races have shifted in the last 2 to 2.5 years since Biden stepped aside, the picture has become really clear in all of the essential swing states, and a few other Trump leaners are back into toss up territory. Which makes Penn absolutely and easily the most important state for the dems to win

- Michigan looks like it's in the bad
- Wisconsin is probably Dem Lean
- Nevada and Arizona have probably moved to Dem Lean
- Georgia has moved to toss up
- Penn is probably slight Trump lean right now. Absolutely have to win Penn, the path to 270 is so, so much harder without it. If Shapiro brings you Penn and the rest of the numbers hold, Dems win.
 
MindzEye said:
With how the races have shifted in the last 2 to 2.5 years since Biden stepped aside, the picture has become really clear in all of the essential swing states, and a few other Trump leaners are back into toss up territory. Which makes Penn absolutely and easily the most important state for the dems to win

- Michigan looks like it's in the bad
- Wisconsin is probably Dem Lean
- Nevada and Arizona have probably moved to Dem Lean
- Georgia has moved to toss up
- Penn is probably slight Trump lean right now. Absolutely have to win Penn, the path to 270 is so, so much harder without it. If Shapiro brings you Penn and the rest of the numbers hold, Dems win.
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I honestly don't think that it is going to be close. Kamala will be north of 320 Electoral College votes, and Trump will be in Jail next year.
 
thehabhater said:
I honestly don't think that it is going to be close. Kamala will be north of 320 Electoral College votes, and Trump will be in Jail next year.
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I don't know if I'm that optimistic....fuck, I thought I was pretty optimistic.

imo our most reasonable electoral college outcome is this, and I'm going to ignore #crosstabmafia talk for the moment and suggest the polls are more or less accurate within MoE and trend:

- Sweep the 5 states currently rated by 270towin as toss ups (MI,WI,PA, AZ,NV), that takes Kamala to 277.
- Flip GA (current lean red but recent polls put at a toss up) gets her to 293

After that we move into unlikely

- Flip NC (current lean red, and recent polls suggest that's holding) which would get Kamala to 309

This is probably where we have to board a bus to crazy town (which does get to where it's going on occasion) to see any other states go blue.
 
MindzEye said:
I don't know if I'm that optimistic....fuck, I thought I was pretty optimistic.

imo our most reasonable electoral college outcome is this, and I'm going to ignore #crosstabmafia talk for the moment and suggest the polls are more or less accurate within MoE and trend:

- Sweep the 5 states currently rated by 270towin as toss ups (MI,WI,PA, AZ,NV), that takes Kamala to 277.
- Flip GA (current lean red but recent polls put at a toss up) gets her to 293

After that we move into unlikely

- Flip NC (current lean red, and recent polls suggest that's holding) which would get Kamala to 309

This is probably where we have to board a bus to crazy town (which does get to where it's going on occasion) to see any other states go blue.
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Florida is in play big time. And oddly, so is Texas.

Women will make the difference this year. So Fuck you Jesse Watters.
 
thehabhater said:
Florida is in play big time. And oddly, so is Texas.

Women will make the difference this year. So Fuck you Jesse Watters.
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I want to believe, and I will remain a card carrying member of the #crosstabmafia for the duration, polling is still fucked, but I'd really like to see some data on the races tightening there at least within the range of polling fuckery I expect to see.
 
Never get complacent. The wingnut machine is already in full swing, and over the next few months much fuckery there will be.

This is still the most likely best case scenario.


DJDAJuf.jpeg
 
MindzEye said:
I want to believe, and I will remain a card carrying member of the #crosstabmafia for the duration, polling is still fucked, but I'd really like to see some data on the races tightening there at least within the range of polling fuckery I expect to see.
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Not based upon today, but on Trump/Vance implosion
map.jpg
 
thehabhater said:
Florida is in play big time. And oddly, so is Texas.

Women will make the difference this year. So Fuck you Jesse Watters.
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Rightly or wrongly, I don't think there is the same level of loathing towards Kamala Harris (beyond usual political partisanships) than was with respect to Hillary Clinton. I would hope that plays a fact.
 
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