OT: American Politics
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Traders have predicted 38 of the last 2 recessions, so yeah.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Oh it's not about that. I'm more concerned about stock market weakness heading into November, which doesn't require a recession to actually occur! Trump has nothing on 'mala right now. The less ammo he has the better.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Can't see the market suffering in an environment with declining interest rates.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Famous last words. Predicting price action in a timeframe as short as this is a dangerous game my friend. There can be a 5-10% consolidation between now and november and the charts would still look healthy and not necessarily be "suffering." But I sure would prefer things to keep booming as they have. People have short memories.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Meh
Short of a major market event (dotcom bubble burst, great recession, or covid), the market will react to money supply like it tends to.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Absolutely. But again I'm not talking about that. I'm referring to a 3 month stretch of price action. Odds will always favor the bulls but 3 months is a highly variable timeframe. And nothing impacts sentiment more than price action in shortterm timeframes, as irrational as it may be.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Anyway here's the reason money left the market today and we got one of the ugliest days of the year:
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. The ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
Agree it's most likely a nothingburger but sometimes the data and fear takes awhile to stabilize. 3 months could be enough time to turn the narrative and data around but hey I'm simply saying that I hope that happens! Not that it won't happen. Truthfully I don't know and neither do you.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. The ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
Agree it's most likely a nothingburger but sometimes the data and fear takes awhile to stabilize. 3 months could be enough time to turn the narrative and data around but hey I'm simply saying that I hope that happens! Not that it won't happen. Truthfully I don't know and neither do you.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Meh
The market went up ~10% during the Clinton-Trump campaign that nearly everyone in the universe though Clinton was going to win, with a Democrat president. It went up 10% the month before the election in Trump-Biden and Biden whomped Trump anyway. It was dead flat for 2-3 months before Obama beat Romney as the incumbent and Obama won easily.
Hard meh on worrying about the movement of the market before an election.
The market went up ~10% during the Clinton-Trump campaign that nearly everyone in the universe though Clinton was going to win, with a Democrat president. It went up 10% the month before the election in Trump-Biden and Biden whomped Trump anyway. It was dead flat for 2-3 months before Obama beat Romney as the incumbent and Obama won easily.
Hard meh on worrying about the movement of the market before an election.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Again I already explained why I prefer to not have weakness. Trump is floundering, grasping at straws and he's dying for anything to latch on to. I'd simply prefer if he had nothing.
worm
Well-known member
Easy for you to say when you have not gambled your life savings on the election
Wayward DP
Well-known member
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
thehabhater
Some call me Tim
Who say's that Kamala isn't tough?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Poor Gordust
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
History says it does initially because the news gets sold
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I’m not worried about it…. It would have to crash 20% for most people to notice
5-10% dips are routine
Preston
MBow30 alt account
No one ever implied that for a second