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OT: American Politics


View: https://x.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1821278856365715849

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My for you tab is a mix of that crazy shit because I do have morbid curiosity and some pro dem shit with zeke taking up most of it. He's a twitter sensation these days.
 
hockeylover said:

View: https://x.com/usa_polling/status/1821354260560224708?s=46&t=moEoHBmqH0l4NE3F_49J3Q

the polls are perfect, I’ve always said that.
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Here's the thing...the fundamental problems with the polls haven't changed. The weightings a high percentage of polls use are bad and seems to have a baked in .5-1.0 point R advantage, the census data is bad and really likely favour Republican heavy demos, and the poll aggregators include a lot of shitty partisan polls in their numbers and even just a cursory look at them shows it to mostly be a Republican driven phenomena.

Even with those handicaps, we're going to start to see some heavy pro Kamabla numbers. Like we saw in Washington today, when the actual votes get counted, Democrats have been shit kicking at higher levels than expected since the repeal of Roe.
 
MindzEye said:
Here's the thing...the fundamental problems with the polls haven't changed. The weightings a high percentage of polls use are bad and seems to have a baked in .5-1.0 point R advantage, the census data is bad and really likely favour Republican heavy demos, and the poll aggregators include a lot of shitty partisan polls in their numbers and even just a cursory look at them shows it to mostly be a Republican driven phenomena.

Even with those handicaps, we're going to start to see some heavy pro Kamabla numbers. Like we saw in Washington today, when the actual votes get counted, Democrats have been shit kicking at higher levels than expected since the repeal of Roe.
Click to expand...
I agree with all of this. If there actually is a Kamala +8 coming tonight it’ll be interesting to see how the crosstabs shift.
 
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