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OT: American Politics

zeke said:
at least he's admitting his system has no way of judging the validity of brand new pollsters.

I don't know how a 10yr old code would have anything to do with judging the seriousness of a brand new pollster.
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It’s him telling on himself essentially.

If he’s unable to adapt his model to new pollsters, seems like a useless model.
 
zeke said:
at least he's admitting his system has no way of judging the validity of brand new pollsters.

I don't know how a 10yr old code would have anything to do with judging the seriousness of a brand new pollster.
Click to expand...

Not like his model ever worked in the first place anyway.
 
zeke said:
at least he's admitting his system has no way of judging the validity of brand new pollsters.

I don't know how a 10yr old code would have anything to do with judging the seriousness of a brand new pollster.
Click to expand...

The underlying fact is simple. bad data is bad data. Piling more and more of it together with weights and averages doesn't make it better data.

The GOP operators know this and for a few elections now have intentionally used this as an opportunity to use bad polls to influence opinions and narratives rather than using them as a snap shot of public sentiment.

I'm torn between someone like Nate knowing this and simply being cynical in the pursuit of right wing sugar daddies, or whether he thinks people like Peter Thiel honestly see big value in his big brain work.
 
I see these Presidential polls as largely entertainment and geek value. They’re useful for trend spotting (ie Kamala >> Biden) but their margin of error is greater than what we are likely to see decide those important swing states in November
 
CH1 said:
I see these Presidential polls as largely entertainment and geek value. They’re useful for trend spotting (ie Kamala >> Biden) but their margin of error is greater than what we are likely to see decide those important swing states in November
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In other words, unless Kamabla absolutely dominates and the absolute numbers we see from the polling are historically heavily skewed to favor Trump, they were fucked with Biden. He was gonna lose.
 
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