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OT: American Politics

LeafGm said:
Are the Dems looking poised to re-take the House at least?

Or is it looking like even if Harris wins, she’ll spend the first two years of her term with the GOP in control of both the House and the Senate?
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I think it is very likely the Dems get the House, with the redistricting of New York being one of the main factors to hang your hat on.
 
LeafGm said:
Are the Dems looking poised to re-take the House at least?

Or is it looking like even if Harris wins, she’ll spend the first two years of her term with the GOP in control of both the House and the Senate?
Click to expand...
Dems should retake the House, yah.

A big reason why they lost it was losing winnable seats in CA and NY last election. that seems less likely to happen this time due to voter enthusiasm. plus, abortion is on the ballot in a bunch of states and that is likely to drive up turn out too.
 
zeke said:
View attachment 21984


NV continues to move significantly towards blue. That little state is pretty dang important because suddenly (assuming WI and MI are safe), if they win NV, then all they'd need is any one of PA, NC, GA to seal it.
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so I think I understand what you're saying but I'd frame it differently.

NV being blue opens up more paths for Kamala.

without NV, she needs:
a) (WI+MI) + PA OR;
b) (WI+MI) + two of NC/GA/AZ

with NV, WI, and MI all blue, she can succeed without PA either:
a) NC
b) GA
c) AZ + NC/GA
 
LeafGm said:
Are the Dems looking poised to re-take the House at least?

Or is it looking like even if Harris wins, she’ll spend the first two years of her term with the GOP in control of both the House and the Senate?
Click to expand...

chances look better in the house i think.

some current forecast percentages to win control:

Race2WH: D 62% - R 38%
Split-Ticket: D 58% - R 42%
DDHQ: D 44% - R 56%
 
Wayward DP said:
so I think I understand what you're saying but I'd frame it differently.

NV being blue opens up more paths for Kamala.

without NV, she needs:
a) (WI+MI) + PA OR;
b) (WI+MI) + two of NC/GA/AZ

with NV, WI, and MI all blue, she can succeed without PA either:
a) NC
b) GA
c) AZ + NC/GA
Click to expand...

This guy LSAT's
 
Wayward DP said:
so I think I understand what you're saying but I'd frame it differently.

NV being blue opens up more paths for Kamala.

without NV, she needs:
a) (WI+MI) + PA OR;
b) (WI+MI) + two of NC/GA/AZ

with NV, WI, and MI all blue, she can succeed without PA either:
a) NC
b) GA
c) AZ + NC/GA
Click to expand...

yeah basically i see WI as very safe and MI as not quite as safe but pretty likely.

From there, to get to 270 would only need:

1. PA alone
2. NC + NV
3. GA + NV

While AZ+NV wouldn't be enough.

If NV goes blue, AZ becomes pretty much irrelevant, even though it's worth twice the EVs as NV.
 
zeke said:
yeah basically i see WI as very safe and MI as not quite as safe but pretty likely.

From there, to get to 270 would only need:

1. PA alone
2. NC + NV
3. GA + NV

While AZ+NV wouldn't be enough.

If NV goes blue, AZ becomes pretty much irrelevant, even though it's worth twice the EVs as NV.
Click to expand...
NC + GA without NV would also do it, although that scenario seems pretty unlikely.

and yeah, seems like AZ only matters if PA and NV both go red. and in that scenario, AZ is likely red too. so AZ prolly doesn't matter much
 
The more the polls in Wisconsin look safe the better I feel about PA really. They shouldn’t really be too far off or at least I don’t see much reason to think they will be based on historical norms.
 
It is too early for me to predict the senate, because the GOP is losing the money war bigly.

I see the house going to the Dems because of California and New York. And I still stand on my white house prediction..

#northof320
 
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