OT: American Politics

[zeke]

remembering some things here:

1. the big covid spike in "real disposable income" came from the economy shutting down, not from an actual improvement.
2. There has been a clear increase from pre-covid levels.
2. Nate claims his fundamentals are based on the last 2yrs of data, so the covid spike should be irrelevant anyways.

 

[zeke]

View: https://x.com/jamieson/status/1836479438126559335

 

[zeke]

View: https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/1836479674911985772

 

[Wayward DP]

Well Nate's fundamentals clearly say something different than Lichtman. I'm not saying it's right! It's most likely wrong. But that is most likely the explanation for his weird projections despite being just about dead on with his polling averages.

or he's just a Thiel lackey. that's also a possible explanation.

 

[Wayward DP]

View: https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/1836479674911985772

this seems foolish, but what do I know

 

[zeke]

View: https://x.com/carlquintanilla/status/1836480612229611600

 

[MindzEye]

ah here it is - these are his fundamentals.


View: https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1836470151103025354




except all the data i've seen says that his "real disposable income" number here - the one big negative amongst his fundamentals - is way off.

A blogger in his basement with 10 yr old code.

 

[Wayward DP]

A very well-paid blogger in his basement with 10 yr old code.

*

 

[Aberdeen]

He has an arts degree I believe.

 

[MindzEye]

He has an arts degree I believe.

Econ BA, no post grad.

 

[hockeylover]

View: https://x.com/atrupar/status/1836487598086193228

 

[Aberdeen]

Econ BA, no post grad.

BAs mean jack

 

[worm]

BAs mean jack

 

[StormChaserBH]

View attachment 22011

The likelihood of Tuberville understanding any portion of fed money policy, let alone expressing a coherent thought about it, is indistinguishable from zero, but way to parrot the talking points you were handed, Tommy.

 

[trujaysfan]

BAs mean jack

Depends on where you live but mostly right.

 

[hockeylover]

View: https://x.com/stphnfwlr/status/1836463070165471233

 

[hockeylover]

View: https://x.com/atrupar/status/1836492489915592860

 

[MindzEye]

View: https://x.com/HackingButLegal/status/1836246060181676294

 

[StormChaserBH]

View: https://x.com/stphnfwlr/status/1836463070165471233

lol a "crowd" of hundreds in metro area this big.

Walz did this down the road in Asheville (population 95K) yesterday, in the rain.

 

[Aberdeen]

He's a workhorse, now do hot ones.