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OT: American Politics

thehabhater said:
Trump and Vance will tip more than a few states blue. Look for a November surprise.

#northof320
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If post-roe polling bias holds, then yeah could happen.

320 on the nose would definitely be in reach in that case (all swingstates + ME-2). More than 320 and you're talking about flipping FLA I guess......but we'll need more than recent polling bias to get there i think.
 
zeke said:
i don't love nate but he's kinda right here.

polls are already tiny samples. the smalles samples that they can possibly derive relevant data from mathematically. diving into crosstabs takes you into really irrelevantly small samples.
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If he made a real list I would agree.

Its one of the numerous things that can be done wrong analyzing polls. He does all of the other ones regularly though, so they're not important to him.
 
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