OT: American Politics

[hockeylover]

View: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1838633801385140459

 

[Wayward DP]

View: https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1838612697728061935

 

[JackBurton]

View: https://x.com/Acyn/status/1838385754466324847

 

[Aberdeen]

View: https://x.com/Acyn/status/1838385754466324847

He means white

 

[MindzEye]

View: https://x.com/Acyn/status/1838385754466324847

"Until they're born...then fuck those kids, they're on their own"

 

[MindzEye]

He means white

And even the precious white babies can fuck off the moment they're born.

/prolife

 

[axlsalinger]

at least until they're 14 or so, when we may need them to work in the mines

 

[hockeylover]

View: https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1838595472069362151

 

[thehabhater]

View: https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1838595472069362151

A reminder that the VP debate is next week.

 

[zeke]

I don't know their rating but Bullfinch is good enough to be included by Nate, 538, Race2WH, and maybe others. Not sure the weights they're given.

Bullfinch:

GA D+2
NC D+1
FL R+1

 

[LeafGm]

View: https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1838595472069362151

JD’s carrying on a well-worn tradition for fascist, authoritarian & totalitarian regimes. Professors, academics & intellectuals are always among the first people they have silenced, locked up and/or lined up against a wall and shot.

 

[CH1]

Think of all the podcasts out there teaching science and literature etc people instead tune in to hear hate.

People say they internet failed us but it’s humans that failed the internet

 

[MindzEye]

Bullfinch is a weird one. No one has a rating on them, run by an ex Trump pollster that Donald fired last cycle. He was working for Kellyanne Conway's polling firm at the time, and now runs Bullfinch.

So not enough data to know if they're any good at it, and who knows what his potential bias would be.

 

[MindzEye]

at least until they're 14 or so, when we may need them to work in the mines

They're pretty good at fixing machinery in the factory by about 10-11 or so. Their little hands can get into all sorts of hard to reach places.

 

[zeke]

Once all the averages include that Bullfinch FL poll, I'm pretty sure the average of the averages is gonna pull FL down to about a 3pt edge for red......which is barely bigger than the current gaps in MI and WI.

 

[zeke]

that bullfinch one has FL Senate at Scott +2

 

[zeke]

View: https://x.com/HeerJeet/status/1838707295552967107

 

[MindzEye]

Once all the averages include that Bullfinch FL poll, I'm pretty sure the average of the averages is gonna pull FL down to about a 3pt edge for red......which is barely bigger than the current gaps in MI and WI.

The thing about a place like Florida is that poll weightings and LV predictions aren't going to be able to predict a Democrat win. So much of the math underpinning the polls are going to be based on very Trump friendly results in 2016 & 2020, and then huge Republican margins in 2022. A 50.1% Democrat win in Florida is going to be composed of some crazy voter demo shifts that polling is flat out going to miss until election date. 46-47% Dem polling could easily be 50% at the ballot box.

 

[zeke]

View: https://x.com/atrupar/status/1838684752624197729

 

[zeke]

The thing about a place like Florida is that poll weightings and LV predictions aren't going to be able to predict a Democrat win. So much of the math underpinning the polls are going to be based on very Trump friendly results in 2016 & 2020, and then huge Republican margins in 2022. A 50.1% Democrat win in Florida is going to be composed of some crazy voter demo shifts that polling is flat out going to miss until election date. 46-47% Dem polling could easily be 50% at the ballot box.

yeah the averages are getting close to within the standard MOE now. that's in range.