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OT: American Politics

Preston said:

View: https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1839664551177892285?t=Joeff_LJ43P1iIaMLtKadQ&s=19

Do we still hate Nate?
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No need to hate.

His convention bounce input didn't apply to this unique election cycle and so it gave his model a fake trump bounce instead.

Not really his fault, and i don't think he should have just changed his model, but he should probably acknowledge it.

That being said, a 58-42 odds forecast isn't remotely simjlar to a 58-42 polling lead.

A 58-42 odds forecast is pretty much a tossup.
 
And remember - while Nate was off on that convention bounce, he is still looking rosy this election cycle for being adamant that Biden was killing their chances and that most any alternative would be much better.
 
CTheBigPicture said:
What a mess in Florida. If you are living through the hurricane and all the horrific floods, seeing what nature can do, comparing it to how things were when you were younger, and still vote for climate change denying party....then not sure there is anything that can change you.
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Hate to say it but there isn't an electable party on the planet capable of dealing with climate change.
 
Screenshot 2024-09-27 145917.png


yeah so a nice swing towards blue here.

the biggest move was in NV, which along with a smaller boost in PA has pushed both those states close to being solidly blue. I'd like to see them both move up to the 2+ range but the movement from a 1pt lead to here now is nice to see.

GA also moved towards blue though is still near a point in favor of red. Nice to see some softening there tho.

AZ is moving towards red more and more....which is actually a surprise to me knowing the makeup of that state which i would have guessed would trend blue.....but in the end this is legitimately the least important of these swing states by far, and becomes less and less important the bluer NV gets.
 
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