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OT: American Politics

The state of the race in the Sunshine State
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As of today, our model gives Kamala Harris a 21 percent chance of winning Florida’s 30 electoral votes. Now, a one-in-five chance isn’t bad, but it isn’t great either. For perspective, this scenario is about as likely as Harris winning Alaska. So let’s be clear: Harris is the definite underdog here. There are however a few things that make the race more interesting than the 21 percent win probability would imply.

First, the Florida polls have slowly tightened since Harris entered the race. On the day our Harris-Trump model launched, Trump led by a 7-point margin in the state. Now? He only leads by 3.3 points. Harris has gotten some good individual polls recently too. A Victory Insights poll had her down by 2 points, and she trailed by 1 point a Bullfinch Group poll. Are these particularly high-quality pollsters? No. And she’s had some bad polls too. She trailed by 4 points in this Public Policy Polling survey — a firm that typically leans towards Democrats, and the poll was for a partisan client.
 
CH1 said:
our model gives Kamala Harris a 21 percent chance of winning Florida’s 30 electoral votes.
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CH1 said:

The state of the race in the Sunshine State​

​

As of today, our model gives Kamala Harris a 21 percent chance of winning Florida’s 30 electoral votes. Now, a one-in-five chance isn’t bad, but it isn’t great either. For perspective, this scenario is about as likely as Harris winning Alaska. So let’s be clear: Harris is the definite underdog here. There are however a few things that make the race more interesting than the 21 percent win probability would imply.

First, the Florida polls have slowly tightened since Harris entered the race. On the day our Harris-Trump model launched, Trump led by a 7-point margin in the state. Now? He only leads by 3.3 points. Harris has gotten some good individual polls recently too. A Victory Insights poll had her down by 2 points, and she trailed by 1 point a Bullfinch Group poll. Are these particularly high-quality pollsters? No. And she’s had some bad polls too. She trailed by 4 points in this Public Policy Polling survey — a firm that typically leans towards Democrats, and the poll was for a partisan client.
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Win or lose in Florida, it forces the GOP to campaign harder in this state than likely otherwise. With "Mr Uber Constitution" Dotard, fighting here means less time/money spent in other battleground states.
 
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