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OT: American Politics



I gave it a read and I have a few thoughts

- Anyone who thinks that the polling isn't doing what GOP aligned pollsters intend it to do are naive, and the aggregators are letting them do it. They would simply stop spending the money if it wasn't doing at least some of what they intended it to do.

- If the aggregators turn out dead, dead wrong for 2 cycles in a row in the face of the this new push, I don't want to hear shit from them ever again about how they understand good data from bad, and further understand the value of the bad data and are weighting it appropriately.

- The PA example is kind of everything....straight partisan polls out number non partisan polls. In the partisan polls Trump is up +1.0, in the rest it's Harris +1.7. Yes, it's within MoE, but it's a pretty durable looking trend. Partisan polls are durably ~3 points towards Trump compared to non partisan (and much higher quality in general) pollsters.
 


Eh, I want to see more information on earnings here, what people consider "full time" to be, etc. It's really easy to get monetized on youtube and it pays a surprising amount (depending on your niche). RPM's are typically in the 3-20 dollar range depending on how ad friendly your content is. Even on that low end for something like political content (which pays dick most of the time, one of the lower paying niches), if you're a smallish channel with say 50K subs you're probably getting 100-200K views over the life of the video (and this is lowballing, the content is kind of evergreen...at least some of it is). So say 100K views per video at $3.00 USD RPM and you've made $300 USD per video over it's lifetime. Release 5 videos a week (it's politics, there's a ton of content, controversy, etc) and you're at $1500 a week (eventually). Growing the channel out doesn't look like this obviously, but once it's even gotten to that level it's a solid full time job, and that's only one platform. That's not including other monetizable platforms or appearances, not including Patreon.

Basically, the influencer economy isn't really a bubble. It's just taken all of the eyeball money that used to only go to the big content producing corporations who owned the distribution mediums, and it's been spread out for anyone that makes good enough content to draw some attention.
 
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