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OT: American Politics

Cal Gal said:
Break it down for me. I'm not being facetious; would seriously appreciate reading your opinion and others' here. I'm one of the most chauvinistic Californians you'll ever meet, in spite of the state's many (MANY!!) ugly warts, but I also think it's important to gather intelligent opinions - why I keep coming back to this site. Lay it on me.
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To preface, shit would have to get really bad to the point that the federal government isn't functional anymore, but I don't think that outcome is too big of a stretch to accept as a possibility for anyone as chronically aware of the news as some of us on here. Large complex systems that are deeply damaged have a tendency to function in zombie mode for longer than people expect before crashing out, often long enough that people accept the still animated zombie as the new normal, right up until it collapses.

Probably the most apt modern example is the collapse of the Soviet Union. American diplomats started expecting and planning for the collapse in 1989, ~2 years before it happened, though with the benefit of hindsight, the signs started showing around 86-87. Through those years though, the soviet state continued to function. They signed international treaties, they appeared to maintain centralized control in their version of the federal government while discussing certain way to democratize the ruling party, civil servants got paid. etc. But there were deeeep fractures growing at their political fault lines, which were the individual "republics" that made up the larger whole. Separatist movements picked up steam and the central authority lacked the ability to put the toothpaste back in the tube through violence the way old Joe would have back in the day. The zombie shuffled along until 91 when the hardliners tried to topple Gorbachev but when that failed, it set off a chain reaction of Republics declaring independence and within like 90 days, the big bad villain in 50% of hollywood movies over the previous 40 years was gone.

So I said all of that to say this....if Trump is "successful" in drowning the federal government in a bathtub as the small government types have been trying to do for generations, and the central organizing authority that the states orbit around will start to collapse under the weight of it's own corruption and incompetence. The whole point of being a "State" and kicking tax revenue up the ladder is that the federal government takes care of a bunch of shit for you. If the Federal government abdicates it's responsibilities in doing those things because of incompetence and corruption, it will find itself too weakened by incompetence and corruption to stop states from exiting the union if they choose to. Now...we're probably talking about a timescale of well over a decade to get there, I think....but fuck, with the speed at which these clowns break things, who knows?

As for what they would look like for California? Probably a bloc including Oregon and Washington leaving with them, at minimum. I can't see Nevada opting out of that either, ~35% of las vegas visitors are from SoCal alone. 6 Trillion dollar economy with a population of ~55 million, tons of deep water pacific ports, easy access to Canadian hydro, oil, & gas if they wanted it (probably wouldn't need tbh, they'd go carbon free pretty fucking quickly). Big challenges would be fresh water, illegal immigration, organized crime, monetary policy.
 
Artnes said:
Cali will be the new BC. Sign em up
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This is just me thinking entirely out loud here, but should that wild shit happen down the road I think Californiastan would have everything that it needs to be a successful indepedent nation that separates away from the US and wouldn't need to hook up with us. It's about as plug and play a regional superpower as exists in the world.

The interesting region to watch for Canada though? (and again, this is some wild shit we're talking about that is super unlikely to ever happen)....is the blue great lakes states(Minn, Wisc, Illinois, MI). On paper they look like they have a big enough economies (2.4T) and populations (34M) to go it alone, but being landlocked like that is a tough go if all of your shipping routes would be through foreign countries.

There would be a fuckton of synergy there if they wanted to join the great white north instead of going it alone should the US federal government ever dissolve.
 
MindzEye said:
To preface, shit would have to get really bad to the point that the federal government isn't functional anymore, but I don't think that outcome is too big of a stretch to accept as a possibility for anyone as chronically aware of the news as some of us on here. Large complex systems that are deeply damaged have a tendency to function in zombie mode for longer than people expect before crashing out, often long enough that people accept the still animated zombie as the new normal, right up until it collapses.

Probably the most apt modern example is the collapse of the Soviet Union. American diplomats started expecting and planning for the collapse in 1989, ~2 years before it happened, though with the benefit of hindsight, the signs started showing around 86-87. Through those years though, the soviet state continued to function. They signed international treaties, they appeared to maintain centralized control in their version of the federal government while discussing certain way to democratize the ruling party, civil servants got paid. etc. But there were deeeep fractures growing at their political fault lines, which were the individual "republics" that made up the larger whole. Separatist movements picked up steam and the central authority lacked the ability to put the toothpaste back in the tube through violence the way old Joe would have back in the day. The zombie shuffled along until 91 when the hardliners tried to topple Gorbachev but when that failed, it set off a chain reaction of Republics declaring independence and within like 90 days, the big bad villain in 50% of hollywood movies over the previous 40 years was gone.

So I said all of that to say this....if Trump is "successful" in drowning the federal government in a bathtub as the small government types have been trying to do for generations, and the central organizing authority that the states orbit around will start to collapse under the weight of it's own corruption and incompetence. The whole point of being a "State" and kicking tax revenue up the ladder is that the federal government takes care of a bunch of shit for you. If the Federal government abdicates it's responsibilities in doing those things because of incompetence and corruption, it will find itself too weakened by incompetence and corruption to stop states from exiting the union if they choose to. Now...we're probably talking about a timescale of well over a decade to get there, I think....but fuck, with the speed at which these clowns break things, who knows?

As for what they would look like for California? Probably a bloc including Oregon and Washington leaving with them, at minimum. I can't see Nevada opting out of that either, ~35% of las vegas visitors are from SoCal alone. 6 Trillion dollar economy with a population of ~55 million, tons of deep water pacific ports, easy access to Canadian hydro, oil, & gas if they wanted it (probably wouldn't need tbh, they'd go carbon free pretty fucking quickly). Big challenges would be fresh water, illegal immigration, organized crime, monetary policy.
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Thanks, man. Appreciate your thoughts and writing time. I absorb pretty good, but don't reply as vociferously as many here do (old age tradeoffs - go figure. . .), but I will tell you this: Buddies of mine and I fugured for a COWaN years ago bc of like, or at least similar, attitudes/philosophies/politics, proximities, and that massive CA GDP. I likely won't be around for all of that in spite of current ridic-good horse level health. Drop me a line, bud.
 
MindzEye said:
To preface, shit would have to get really bad to the point that the federal government isn't functional anymore, but I don't think that outcome is too big of a stretch to accept as a possibility for anyone as chronically aware of the news as some of us on here. Large complex systems that are deeply damaged have a tendency to function in zombie mode for longer than people expect before crashing out, often long enough that people accept the still animated zombie as the new normal, right up until it collapses.

Probably the most apt modern example is the collapse of the Soviet Union. American diplomats started expecting and planning for the collapse in 1989, ~2 years before it happened, though with the benefit of hindsight, the signs started showing around 86-87. Through those years though, the soviet state continued to function. They signed international treaties, they appeared to maintain centralized control in their version of the federal government while discussing certain way to democratize the ruling party, civil servants got paid. etc. But there were deeeep fractures growing at their political fault lines, which were the individual "republics" that made up the larger whole. Separatist movements picked up steam and the central authority lacked the ability to put the toothpaste back in the tube through violence the way old Joe would have back in the day. The zombie shuffled along until 91 when the hardliners tried to topple Gorbachev but when that failed, it set off a chain reaction of Republics declaring independence and within like 90 days, the big bad villain in 50% of hollywood movies over the previous 40 years was gone.

So I said all of that to say this....if Trump is "successful" in drowning the federal government in a bathtub as the small government types have been trying to do for generations, and the central organizing authority that the states orbit around will start to collapse under the weight of it's own corruption and incompetence. The whole point of being a "State" and kicking tax revenue up the ladder is that the federal government takes care of a bunch of shit for you. If the Federal government abdicates it's responsibilities in doing those things because of incompetence and corruption, it will find itself too weakened by incompetence and corruption to stop states from exiting the union if they choose to. Now...we're probably talking about a timescale of well over a decade to get there, I think....but fuck, with the speed at which these clowns break things, who knows?

As for what they would look like for California? Probably a bloc including Oregon and Washington leaving with them, at minimum. I can't see Nevada opting out of that either, ~35% of las vegas visitors are from SoCal alone. 6 Trillion dollar economy with a population of ~55 million, tons of deep water pacific ports, easy access to Canadian hydro, oil, & gas if they wanted it (probably wouldn't need tbh, they'd go carbon free pretty fucking quickly). Big challenges would be fresh water, illegal immigration, organized crime, monetary policy.
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Shorter: if they drop the IRS they're basically saying there's no more government and it's every state for themselves
 
Cal Gal said:
Thanks, man. Appreciate your thoughts and writing time. I absorb pretty good, but don't reply as vociferously as many here do (old age tradeoffs - go figure. . .), but I will tell you this: Buddies of mine and I fugured for a COWaN years ago bc of like, or at least similar, attitudes/philosophies/politics, proximities, and that massive CA GDP. I likely won't be around for all of that in spite of current ridic-good horse level health. Drop me a line, bud.
Click to expand...

Yeah, we're all into some pretty wild theory crafting stuff here but on paper that makes sense for reasons mentioned. Geography, culture, economic synergy. Arizona is the only one I'm not sure of, but in this type of scenario, I wouldn't be surprised to see states break up as the dominant economic entities in them want different things than the rural surroundings.
 
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