Can't happen. Even if we could hop the regulatory hurdles (EU environmental regulations don't necessarily forbid the import of Canadian oil, but we have a much "heavier" oil in sulphur content than WTI or Brent, so it's heavier in emissions and they're quite strict with emissions), logistically it just can't happen. We have about 1.5-2M bpd in refining capacity capable of handling Western Canadian Select (heavier oil requires a different refining set up) but Alberta produces closer to 4-4.5M bpd in WCS. Fwiw, that refining capacity doesn't meet our domestic needs (about 2.3M bpd) as it is so we import a fair amount of finished product.
Large refinery projects are 5+ year projects. So yeah, our heavy product has to go somewhere, and Europe isn't capable (or willing) to accept it in large amount. Now, our NatGas lines up nicely with European needs and that can be shifted pretty easily. The pipeline capacity is already there as far as I know and Europe shifted to US imports after the Russian invasion, we could replace every single fucking cube that the US sends them.
With all of that said, I'm entirely good with Carney coming in and saying that we're putting big ass refineries on both coasts asap and starting the process of uncoupling on our reliance on Cushing & Houston, but that's a tomorrow thing not a today thing.
