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OT: American Politics

MindzEye said:
Eh, we're going to have to agree to disagree that Trump having a neutral net approval after the last 6 weeks is a good thing mate.

Deep indictment of the people of the country imo
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we are extreme political nerds. 95% of the people have no idea. they won't know until it actually hits them in real life.
 
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zeke said:
we are extreme political nerds. 95% of the people have no idea. they won't know until it actually hits them in real life.
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That's kind of what I'm getting at though. I'm not expecting 95% of the people to be able to glance at a chart from the US Fed and immediately understand the basis of their projections, it's historic similarities to other financial events, etc...yeah, that's the domain of politics nerds. But the last 6 weeks have been fucking historic and it's barely moved the needle. The people you're talking about who need to have it hit them in the mouth might not be capable of analyzing why they got hit in the mouth and might instead entirely get in line behind "Canada and Mexico has been stealing from us for years, your jobs and money went to them, get the guns".

Seeing a deeply irrational lack of response from the average American to historic events, but then expecting a reasoned and rational post facto analysis of why they're bleeding a few months from now is dodgy imo.
 
MindzEye said:
That's kind of what I'm getting at though. I'm not expecting 95% of the people to be able to glance at a chart from the US Fed and immediately understand the basis of their projections, it's historic similarities to other financial events, etc...yeah, that's the domain of politics nerds. But the last 6 weeks have been fucking historic and it's barely moved the needle. The people you're talking about who need to have it hit them in the mouth might not be capable of analyzing why they got hit in the mouth and might instead entirely get in line behind "Canada and Mexico has been stealing from us for years, your jobs and money went to them, get the guns".

Seeing a deeply irrational lack of response from the average American to historic events, but then expecting a reasoned and rational post facto analysis of why they're bleeding a few months from now is dodgy imo.
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I think that's actually a dramatic move in the polls, especially given how his supporters will double down on support as long as possible before admitting they're wrong.

bigger movement comes when the actual real world data starts hitting, and long enough that blaming biden doesn't cut it.
 
zeke said:
I think that's actually a dramatic move in the polls, especially given how his supporters will double down on support as long as possible before admitting they're wrong.

bigger movement comes when the actual real world data starts hitting, and long enough that blaming biden doesn't cut it.
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Net neutral means that we're really not into his core supporters here though. He's just burning through his new supporters who jumped on this weirdo Trump culture shift over the last 6 months. Trump was between a -10 and -20 for most of his first term.

Fuck, Trump hit net rating neutral on Feb 2nd in his first term, we're actually a month behind this time.
 
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zeke said:

View: https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1896652546028253497
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I stumbled upon the correct lens to view Trump's thinking on any issue while reading Ezra Klien's recent interview with Fareed Zakaria.

It doesn't matter if the US greatly benefits from Free Trade/Global Structures, if some other country benefits too, Trump is unhappy.

Everything is a zero sum game to him. You can only be deemed a winner if the other side gets nothing.

Screenshot 2025-03-03 at 3.35.55 PM.png
 
MindzEye said:
Net neutral means that we're really not into his core supporters here though. He's just burning through his new supporters who jumped on this weirdo Trump culture shift over the last 6 months. Trump was between a -10 and -20 for most of his first term.

Fuck, Trump hist net rating neutral on Feb 2nd in his first term, we're actually a month behind this time.
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first term is irrelevant now - the dems lost that messaging war by not actually treating his crimes as real urgent things, only as poltical tools. His approval coming into this 2nd term is the only thing that matters now. He won a big messaging war over the election campaign and there's a gut-level support of his stances on issues that will take quite a bit to change in a lot of people.
 
CH1 said:
I stumbled upon the correct lens to view Trump's thinking on any issue while reading Ezra Klien's recent interview with Fareed Zakaria.

It doesn't matter if the US greatly benefits from Free Trade/Global Structures, if some other country benefits too, Trump is unhappy.

Everything is a zero sum game to him. You can only be deemed a winner if the other side gets nothing.

View attachment 24798
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yup.
 
zeke said:
first term is irrelevant now - the dems lost that messaging war by not actually treating his crimes as real urgent things, only as poltical tools. His approval coming into this 2nd term is the only thing that matters now. He won a big messaging war over the election campaign and there's a gut-level support of his stances on issues that will take quite a bit to change in a lot of people.
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I'm not remotely confident that the US public is going to 1) React and/or 2) React rationally and appropriately directed ....in large enough numbers for it to matter and popularity only matters if election matters, and I'm also not convinced that they matter anymore either.
 
MindzEye said:
I'm not remotely confident that the US public is going to 1) React and/or 2) React rationally and appropriately directed ....in large enough numbers for it to matter and popularity only matters if election matters, and I'm also not convinced that they matter anymore either.
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oh neither am i.

that's why i've said the only thing that we can do now is that everyone on the left keep clear track of everything and do everything in our powers to make sure they can't easily shift blame when shit really hits the fan.

and even that might not matter in the end.
 
LeafGm said:
Is this an example of Trump criming and/or overstepping his legal authority?

Or did Biden have the authority all along to force out Louis DeJoy and just decided not to exercise it and leave Trump’s mole in place?
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it's one thing to have the authority, it's another thing to have a compliant DOJ and Congress and SCOTUS letting you do whatever you want.
 
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