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OT: American Politics

leafman101 said:
Well, he did say that black people who don't vote for him aren't really black.

In the non-bizarre world version of American politics that may have been a gaffe.
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It was a really stupid thing to say. Against a very good candidate it's the kind of thing that could/should even move the needle a little.
 
CH1 said:
The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470
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This is a genuine question and I clearly have no economic background but doesn't it seem a bit odd to compare it to the economic recovery after a hurricane or oil spill? A hurricane comes and then goes, people rebuild and then pack bars, restaurants and stores again. It doesn't keep hitting the same area.
 
hockeylover said:
Hasn't Biden kind of always put his foot in his mouth though? Like wasn't that his reputation over a decade ago too?
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Yeah, I mean I get people not being a Biden fan. He has never been seen as a great candidate. But the only comparison is between Biden and Trump., not Biden and the ideal candidate.

Anyone using a comparison of Biden to the "ideal candidate' to justify voting for Trump was never open minded to not voting for Trump.
 
leafman101 said:
Anyone using a comparison of Biden to the "ideal candidate' to justify voting for Trump was never open minded to not voting for Trump.
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Remove the name Biden & insert Hillary, and you could pretty much say the same thing. Except there likely isn't the same 'loathe' factor in Biden (real or imagined/projected). Won't ever sway voters away from Trump but you probably will get more people to vote for Biden over Hillary. Will that be enough? We'll find out in November.
 
I wonder if more people would've shown up for Hillary if anyone actually thought Trump had a chance at winning. If I disliked a candidate but their opponent was a reality star I thought had no chance of winning anyway, I'd probably stay home too.
 
hockeylover said:
This is a genuine question and I clearly have no economic background but doesn't it seem a bit odd to compare it to the economic recovery after a hurricane or oil spill? A hurricane comes and then goes, people rebuild and then pack bars, restaurants and stores again. It doesn't keep hitting the same area.
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You are correct. I didn't agree with that part of his thesis. Not only is a natural disaster temporary (as you said), it's also regional and rarely impacts the entire country.

I think the Dem strategists are being super cautious this time around; and I do think their main point is valid -- they can't overstate how Trump led the US to a great depression because if wave 2 turns out to be a nothing burger, Trump will look good by default.
 
hockeylover said:
I wonder if more people would've shown up for Hillary if anyone actually thought Trump had a chance at winning. If I disliked a candidate but their opponent was a reality star I thought had no chance of winning anyway, I'd probably stay home too.
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Yep. Likely would have made a difference in 1 or 2 of those swing states that handed Trump his victory.
 
CH1 said:
Yep. Likely would have made a difference in 1 or 2 of those swing states that handed Trump his victory.
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It’s Bitcofer’s model, turn out is the game. Hilldog suppressed it for the Ds in ‘16, but since then Dorito has supercharged D voters. Biden is almost irrelevant.
 
lecoqsportif said:
It’s Bitcofer’s model, turn out is the game. Hilldog suppressed it for the Ds in ‘16, but since then Dorito has supercharged D voters. Biden is almost irrelevant.
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exactly....hate for Trump is underrated when discussing the Dems here
 
lecoqsportif said:
It’s Bitcofer’s model, turn out is the game. Hilldog suppressed it for the Ds in ‘16, but since then Dorito has supercharged D voters. Biden is almost irrelevant.
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Definitely. Remember reading that turnout in Michigan's bluest county was down 5% and that had it been down 3-4% instead she likely would've won the state.

I'm sure this is the real reason Republicans are going to try to block vote by mail at any cost.
 
Habsy said:
I do not have the confidence that you do. What In rating here is almost like fait accomplis and that is what’s concerning me greatly.
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the election is still a ways away... not the time to declare victory or show great concern, IMO
 
Habsy said:
I do not have the confidence that you do. What I’m reading here is almost like fait accomplis and that is what’s concerning me greatly.
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I'll agree this election should be a slam dunk for a toilet (Over Donald Trump) the fact is it isn't... He $#$@ed over the farmers and as a whole they will vote for him. This election scares me greatly... but I also know only 77k voters in the right place would change this...
NC is potentially up for grabs but Trump is ahead of Tillis... (In polls) It scares me.
 
I know people here know MAGA type folk but the sheer surge of support I’m hearing when out is ridiculous. Anecdotal I know but it’s astounding me.
 
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