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OT: American Politics

they were feeling good about themselves bc the early vote data looks like Florida’s tbh

But Nevada didn’t even go red for Hilldawg.

Vegas and Reno usually come through
 
Wayward DP said:
economists all over the place were calling for rate cuts because of how the economy at large was performing, before the 50 pt cut in September...

and who are the smart people who have advocated for abolishing the fed?
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The only people I saw calling for rate cuts were people wanting them purely for stock market purposes. Nothing in jobs or inflation data said that a FIFTY bps cut was needed. Like, not even 25? 50??
 
FlyGuy said:
The only people I saw calling for rate cuts were people wanting them purely for stock market purposes. Nothing in jobs or inflation data said that a FIFTY bps cut was needed. Like, not even 25? 50??
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All the jobs and inflation data clearly showed they waited too long to cut.
 
zeke said:
let me see if i can explain this differently.

Let's say you raise the price on your home by $25k.

How much would a purchaser's down payment increase?
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That's up to them. I can increasing my home price 125K and it will then negate that 25K downpayment subsidy if they plan on doing 20%.
 
zeke said:
let's say on average. we're talking about first time buyers who can't afford more than the minimums.
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If they were to buy my home for 600K and put 5% down that would be 30K. Say I sold for 650K instead as a way to capture first time home buyers. Now it's 32,500K down. Negligible difference for young people who have been waiting for a while to buy. As long as they think they can afford the monthly payments (or are smart enough to make a smart decision about that).

I'm not sure you're making the point you think you are.
 
FlyGuy said:
If they were to buy my home for 600K and put 5% down that would be 30K. Say I sold for 650K instead as a way to capture first time home buyers. Now it's 32,500K down. Negligible difference for young people who have been waiting for a while to buy. As long as they think they can afford the monthly payments (or are smart enough to make a smart decision about that).

I'm not sure you're making the point you think you are.
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ok so now you're raising the price of your home by $50k, not $25k. And still only getting an increase in $2500 in downpayment. And this for a home that's worth significantly more than the likely market that most of these qualified first time buyers would be shopping in.

Do you see now how a $25k subsidy leaves these first-time homebuyers much better off, even if the price of homes increases moderately? That they would still have the opportunity to be a homeowner that they would never have had otherwise? We're talking about paycheck to paycheck types who pay their rents on time, but don't have $25k in savings, who can now put a downpayment down on a $400k house that they'd never have been able to do otherwise.

and remember, this is taking at face value your theory that $25k for certain qualified first time buyers has any significant direct impact on the housing market in the first place.
 
FlyGuy said:
The only people I saw calling for rate cuts were people wanting them purely for stock market purposes. Nothing in jobs or inflation data said that a FIFTY bps cut was needed. Like, not even 25? 50??
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Fed is predicted to deliver...

ll measures of inflation polled - the Consumer Price Index, core CPI, personal consumption expenditures price index and core PCE - are expected to stay above 2% until at least 2026.
Despite recent easing, wage growth has remained above the 3.0%-3.5% range seen as consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.
The Fed was expected to deliver a 25 basis point cut each in the four quarters of 2025. Markets are currently pricing around 200 basis points of reductions by end-Q3 2025.

RECESSION UNLIKELY​

The U.S. economy grew 2.8% annualized in the second quarter, much faster than the 2.0% expected by economists. Growth is seen in the poll as averaging 2.5% this year, faster than what Fed officials currently see as the non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%.
Two thirds of common contributors upgraded their 2024 growth outlook from last month. The economy was predicted to grow 1.8% next year.
Economists in the poll broadly expect the economy to expand at around its trend growth rate at least until 2027. The median forecast from a smaller sample who provided a view showed the probability of a recession at just 30% - an outlook which has not changed much since the start of this year.
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