lecoqsportif
Well-known member
we fucked
Feels like another lockdown.
we fucked
even in bertaFeels like another lockdown.
Nature seems to have had enough of our bullshit
isnt the viral load less during the pre symptom days?Unfortunately thus far the pattern appears to be that the more transmissible a variant is, the higher viral load results from those infected and the more deadly it is. I'd love of this one randomly went the other direction tho.
Because of covids incubation period, the general rule that a virus gets less deadly doesn't really apply. It can infect a host, the host can then transmit it for the next 2-3 days pre-symptomatically and then kill the host and the virus will continue to thrive. So it's completely random and so far higher transmissibility has led to higher severity. But yeah, that doesn't have to continue. A lot of it may come down to luck too. Hopefully this one is a baby back bitch.
One of the best, most violent beatdowns I have ever seen on the twitters on mbow's boy, Dingaling. Worth looking at the thread in its entirety:
Yes but presymptomatic spread is still the biggest culprit in covid transmission. Not as much when one is heavily symptomatic and presumably isolating.isnt the viral load less during the pre symptom days?
I like this guys theory a lot. I hope it's correct because that would IMO be best case scenario since we already know that this thing will evade the fuck out of immunity from infection and vaccines; it's the one thing we can say with pretty fucking good certainty. If it's at least less intrinsically transmissible than Delta than this is easily manageable IMO.
Yeah and I think there's good priors to suggest that 3 doses may provide decent protection on Omicron (or 2 doses + prior infection) so if the theory is correct we will probably be alright. Seems like just 2 doses or just prior infection may give us almost no protection so a "new" virus rifling through a completely immunonaive population sorta makes some sense and would make sense if it takes over in a lot of countries.. It's basically back to square one for a lot of people when covid first came to scene in 2020 (with hopefully some protection from severe disease, as you mention). So it may not necessarily NEED a transmissibility advantage to outcompete for now to become dominant. And then when we get that population immunity to Omicron or variant-specific boosters, that may tip the scales back to a more transmissible Delta becoming dominant again.If he's right, how much protection vaccines provide from severe infection is going to be a massive variable that determines how bad this is. Remember that Delta was way more transmissable, and way more severe than previous variants. If...if he's right and Megatron is "only" as transmissable as previous variants, and less severe, it may not out compete daddy Delta....and if the vaccine provides good protection from severe and long symptoms, this may just be a concerning ripple to deal with in what will remain a largely Delta era in the covid fight.
TLDR: I think my money is still on Delta. Wishful thinking maybe, but there are arguments in the early data for both.
I have on good authority that omicron is a HOAX. Fake news.
What if satancron is way more transmissible and evades the vaccine much better than delta ... but is mild as fuck?