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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about



Idk how it's possible to come up with VE at this stage but hopefully this holds up. Deadlier and more transmissible is bad but this is hardly the worst case scenario at least.
 
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Israel as a nation has a... Not very good reputation in the nerd community. They have rushed these kinds of analysis out with huge confidence intervals time and time again and it hasn't often been accurate. I don't really see how you can fire off these numbers yet with any kind of confidence but we'll take any glimmer of hope.

I will say the number of hospitalizations from infants/toddlers in South Africa has been a bit... Scary and would line up with the "deadlier" narrative. But even then... Too early to tell I think.
 
Canada should have been on this one



It's a vaccine with MUCH broader protection than the mRNA platform could accomplish. Likely to be far more variant-proof with just 2 doses and is probably way more preferable to BOOST with. mRNA was great because of the speed at which they became available but creating a new product for each variant ain't gonna work. Next gen vaccines should have BROAD coverage and this is one that is likely to do a nice job.

/Position $VALN
 
Canada should have been on this one



It's a vaccine with MUCH broader protection than the mRNA platform could accomplish. Likely to be far more variant-proof with just 2 doses and is probably way more preferable to BOOST with. mRNA was great because of the speed at which they became available but creating a new product for each variant ain't gonna work. Next gen vaccines should have BROAD coverage and this is one that is likely to do a nice job.

/Position $VALN
no

team moderna for life
 
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Canada should have been on this one



It's a vaccine with MUCH broader protection than the mRNA platform could accomplish. Likely to be far more variant-proof with just 2 doses and is probably way more preferable to BOOST with. mRNA was great because of the speed at which they became available but creating a new product for each variant ain't gonna work. Next gen vaccines should have BROAD coverage and this is one that is likely to do a nice job.

/Position $VALN
If that hits you've got good runway for growth.
 
Israel as a nation has a... Not very good reputation in the nerd community. They have rushed these kinds of analysis out with huge confidence intervals time and time again and it hasn't often been accurate. I don't really see how you can fire off these numbers yet with any kind of confidence but we'll take any glimmer of hope.

I will say the number of hospitalizations from infants/toddlers in South Africa has been a bit... Scary and would line up with the "deadlier" narrative. But even then... Too early to tell I think.
I think I read it was sequenced 3 weeks ago, so they may have had a head start
 
If that hits you've got good runway for growth.
Already up well over 100% on it. Had to take a bunch off yesterday after the huge move but not gonna touch the rest. As soon as this variant came I knew I was getting paid based on what the vaccine is "known" for. It's basically the only thing I hold right now in the entire market.
 
I think I read it was sequenced 3 weeks ago, so they may have had a head start
Just a little confused about the VE estimates. If they're using South African data, most of them have been vaccinated for 4-5 months I think? By that point with even the original covid, VE drops to well below 90%. And if using data from Israel. they only have 4 confirmed cases (with I believe all 4 who were triple dosed so that means VE = sub zero %!!!) so it's not like they will have much data on booster VE... Unless they found more cases that they have withheld so far. And severity estimates seem a bit early even for 3 weeks. Usually takes a month before we see the most severe outcomes so I can't imagine we have nearly enough data for that yet.
 
Incredible thread.

I've never been so comforted by someone giving me a range of possibile outcomes that included near hell on earth.
 
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