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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

Wayward DP said:
I'm not sure your analysis considers how the fact that covid already exists in its current form(s) and with its current prevalence. Surely that has to be a factor that impacts where things go from here. I'm not pretending to know how much it does, but am confident it is at least relevant!
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not sure what exactly you mean - but covid is very serious, and omicron is still going to kill people.

The notion that things are just as likely to get worse than better, however, is wrong. Things could get worse, no doubt. But it is legitimately more likely that they won't.
 
Because of immunity. The virus has no plans to go easy on us. It doesn't think about what it does. You will not find a single evolutionary biologist to agree with this take. It completely goes against the principles of how these things work.
 
Preston said:
So are we saying that covid won't exist soon because it's rare? And it will fizzle away? This is a new one.
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Pretty sure SARS still exists and plague still exists but the unique characteristics and conditions that made them worldwide epidemics faded.
 
leafman101 said:
Well from an evolutionary perspective its better for viruses not to kill the hosts, and the ones that make people less sick will thrive in the long run. A virus that is very transmissible and causes the least harm to humans will survive the longest.

It doesn't necessarily mean that virulence and transmissibility are intrinsically related, and its not predictive of the next x number of mutations, but a variant with high transmissibility and low virulence should win out ultimately.
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The wild card with Covid-19 is that it seems To spread most efficiently before people are symptomatic.
 
The other thing to keep in mind is that there isn’t much science around how a new coronavirus pathogen spreads and infects humans over time - there are only 4 others in wide circulation in humans, only one of which was identified in the past few decades (and in that case it had already been circulating for decades before it was identified).

so it may be that this thing becomes a cold over time due to a combination of prior infection, vaccines, etc, regardless of virulence of a specific pathogen.
 
Preston said:
No. The virus doesn't care about killing us. Or going easy on us. That's the point.
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Yes, that's exactly the point.

The virus is just just a particular mutation in a constant unending stream of mutations that has found a particular sweet spot of characteristics which allowed it to take advantage of a particular weak spot in our immune systems. Odds are BOTH that our immune systems get better at fighting it AND that as the virus continues its neverending mutation it becomes less perfectly adapted to kill us (as killing us isn't its evolutionary goal, just a byproduct).
 
mbow30 said:
The other thing to keep in mind is that there isn’t much science around how a new coronavirus pathogen spreads and infects humans over time - there are only 4 others in wide circulation in humans, only one of which was identified in the past few decades (and in that case it had already been circulating for decades before it was identified).

so it may be that this thing becomes a cold over time due to a combination of prior infection, vaccines, etc, regardless of virulence of a specific pathogen.
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Yup. That's what we could be looking at in a best case scenario. Entirely possible. We don't have record of what happened with the other coronaviruses started circulating. Could have very possibly been similar. Or maybe not and this one is just nastier (they don't all have to have identical virulence just because they're coronaviruses!).. We just don't know.

But intrinsic severity is based on evolution of the virus and evolution does not have a plan even if we hope it does. It really really is not how it works and it is a common misconception.
 
zeke said:
Yes, that's exactly the point.

The virus is just just a particular mutation in a constant unending stream of mutations that has found a particular sweet spot of characteristics which allowed it to take advantage of a particular weak spot in our immune systems. Odds are BOTH that our immune systems get better at fighting it AND that as the virus continues its neverending mutation it becomes less perfectly adapted to kill us (as killing us isn't its evolutionary goal, just a byproduct).
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This part is true.

The next part is not within the odds. I don't know where you read that. It's wrong, to put it bluntly.
 
I am by no means an expert on epidemiology/evolutionary biology, but from what I have learned I would have to agree with Preston's take here. By no means is it guaranteed that this continues to get milder over time.

Also update on day 3 - sore throat much worse today but otherwise just fatigue and congestion/phlegm. Wife who is only double vaxxed has had some pretty bad fevers last few days and has been essentially bed bound. Both not having significant lung/breathing symptoms thankfully.
 
Preston said:
This part is true.

The next part is not within the odds. I don't know where you read that. It's wrong, to put it bluntly.
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You are wrong. Its a very basic mistake you are making.

It's not easy for a virus to be this perfectly adapted to killing so many humans across the entire globe. It's very very hard for it to mutate all the way to that point. This is the Connor McDavid of human-killing viruses.

mutating into something even more perfectly adapted to killing this one specific animal species is much less likely than mutating into something less perfectly adapted to killing this one specfic animal species
 
leaffan2005 said:
I am by no means an expert on epidemiology/evolutionary biology, but from what I have learned I would have to agree with Preston's take here. By no means is it guaranteed that this continues to get milder over time.

Also update on day 3 - sore throat much worse today but otherwise just fatigue and congestion/phlegm. Wife who is only double vaxxed has had some pretty bad fevers last few days and has been essentially bed bound. Both not having significant lung/breathing symptoms thankfully.
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Hope you both feel better soon.
 
I want to go to The School of Zeke for Evolutionary Biology. These are some bizarre takes but I kinda like the optimism.
 
zeke said:
You are wrong. Its a very basic mistake you are making.

It's not easy for a virus to be this perfectly adapted to killing so many humans across the entire globe. It's very very hard for it to mutate all the way to that point. This is the Connor McDavid of human-killing viruses.

mutating into something even more perfectly adapted to killing this one specific animal species is much less likely than mutating into something less perfectly adapted to killing this one specfic animal species
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You are assuming it will have to start from the beginning again in terms of becoming this perfect force of virulence/infectiousness/pre-symptomatic spread. It is already here and showing these characteristics and doesn't have to get to that point again from a series of random events. Much more likely that it stays that way with minor tweaks over time than it completely falling off the map because of how "rare it is to show all of these characteristics".
 
leaffan2005 said:
I am by no means an expert on epidemiology/evolutionary biology, but from what I have learned I would have to agree with Preston's take here. By no means is it guaranteed that this continues to get milder over time.
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what you've read is what Preston has read and which is correct - but is a response to the fallacious argument posted above that many people have pushed - that a virus will evolve to be less harmful to humans because it wants humans to survive. that argument doesn't hold up and everything you and preston have read countering that argument is correct.
 
leaffan2005 said:
You are assuming it will have to start from the beginning again in terms of becoming this perfect force of virulence/infectiousness/pre-symptomatic spread. It is already here and showing these characteristics and doesn't have to get to that point again from a series of random events. Much more likely that it stays that way with minor tweaks over time than it completely falling off the map because of how "rare it is to show all of these characteristics".
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The argument here is only about whether the virus itself is as likely to mutate into something worse for humans as better. It just isn't.

Covid is very bad, omicron is bad, and I don't pooh pooh that in the least.
 
Many viruses have gone on to mutate into worse versions of their original self.

Influenza, West Nile virus, Ebola, etc. It really isn't as cut and dry as you and others would like it to be. I wish it was but it just isn't.
 
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