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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

zeke said:
not sure what exactly you mean - but covid is very serious, and omicron is still going to kill people.

The notion that things are just as likely to get worse than better, however, is wrong. Things could get worse, no doubt. But it is legitimately more likely that they won't.
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I won't pretend to know if things will get better or worse, relatively speaking.

I think your conclusion is optimistic but I am open to being convinced (the last few pages are not sufficient on this front ;)).
 
zeke said:
Yes, that's exactly the point.

The virus is just just a particular mutation in a constant unending stream of mutations that has found a particular sweet spot of characteristics which allowed it to take advantage of a particular weak spot in our immune systems. Odds are BOTH that our immune systems get better at fighting it AND that as the virus continues its neverending mutation it becomes less perfectly adapted to kill us (as killing us isn't its evolutionary goal, just a byproduct).
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what is the source for your odds though?
 
leaffan2005 said:
You are assuming it will have to start from the beginning again in terms of becoming this perfect force of virulence/infectiousness/pre-symptomatic spread. It is already here and showing these characteristics and doesn't have to get to that point again from a series of random events. Much more likely that it stays that way with minor tweaks over time than it completely falling off the map because of how "rare it is to show all of these characteristics".
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I think this captures the essence of the point I was trying to make earlier, just slightly more articulate. Thanks!
 
Wayward DP said:
I'm not sure your analysis considers how the fact that covid already exists in its current form(s) and with its current prevalence. Surely that has to be a factor that impacts where things go from here. I'm not pretending to know how much it does, but am confident it is at least relevant!
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yes. It’s like someone saying rolling snake eyes 10 times in a row is almost impossible. Well it is, but not if you’ve already rolled it 9 times.

Covid, as rare as it is, is here. Nobody knows what happens next. (Though I share zeke’s optimism, just not his logic)
 
leaffan2005 said:
Many viruses have gone on to mutate into worse versions of their original self.

Influenza, West Nile virus, Ebola, etc. It really isn't as cut and dry as you and others would like it to be. I wish it was but it just isn't.
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West Nile has been around for 85 years that we know of. Influenza for hundreds. Influenza actually refers to a whole whack of different viruses. sometimes mutations are just variants and sometimes they're different enough to be new viruses altogether.

They are constantly mutating and occasionally a mutation has popped up that was particularly well suited to killing humans. 99% of those mutations are not particularly deadly to humans tho.

Covid-19 is a one beast of a mutation. The best human-killer we've seen in at least a century. And it will likely linger for a good while.

But you are already looking at the most perfectly suited human-killing viral mutation in at least a century.

Could it mutate into something worse? For sure it could. But the likelihood of it continuing to both mutate enough stay ahead of our immune responses (especially with the help of vaccines) AND not mutate away from its currently awesome human-killing sweet spot is not great.

It wasn't easy for Covid to get to earn the top seed.
 
CH1 said:
yes. It’s like someone saying rolling snake eyes 10 times in a row is almost impossible. Well it is, but not if you’ve already rolled it 9 times.

Covid, as rare as it is, is here. Nobody knows what happens next. (Though I share zeke’s optimism, just not his logic)
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But Covid isn't some singular new alien lifeform that arrived here out of nowhere. It mutated from something and continues to mutate into other things. It is a particularly bad (for humans only) mutation of something that has always been here.
 
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You know what? This may not be based on much actual science, but I like optimism so I'll agree with zeke and his evolutionary biology expertise over the experts. Fuck it. Life is too short.
 
Wayward DP said:
NS announced that they're not even going to bother trying to accurately report total case numbers. Instead they're just going to focus on PCRs, which are already being reserved essentially for the vulnerable.
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Given our resources and numbers, this seems prudent. It will keep people I know who are essentially healthy but want to be certain out if the line ups and allow care to be focused on those who need it most.

There's a certain perpetually terrified percentage of Nova scotia's population that will just go get tests all the time for any reason.
 
Other than the zeke theory, my favorite is this one. A thread:



Although many respond to this disagreeing and see SARS-CoV2 as a different, nastier beast than the other coronaviruses.





But I still like the Goldstein theory as a more plausible, realistic one compared to the zeke magical "it'll just go away one day" Trump theory!
 
Preston said:
Other than the zeke theory, my favorite is this one. A thread:



Although many respond to this disagreeing and see SARS-CoV2 as a different, nastier beast than the other coronaviruses.





But I still like the Goldstein theory as a more plausible, realistic one compared to the zeke magical "it'll just go away one day" Trump theory!
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Goldstein's theory is the zeke theory, of course. Exactly what I was saying

And obviously covid is a nastier different beast - its the champ of the century, by a longshot. Though as unique as it is, it's stillsimilar enough to belong squarely inside a very particular subset of virus. It's not an alien.
 
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