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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

Preston said:
Might have to do with demographics too. Ontario has a poop ton of old people. Not sure about Alberta or the specific area your parents are from. They may have just run out of 70+ folks to give it to in that particular area earlier than the rest of the province or other provinces.

Even if Ontario distributed their entire current supply we would not be on 60+ year olds.
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alberta is young but this is for all of alberta (they live in the old part of alberta - Lethbridge, but it doesnt really matter in terms of the booking)

apparently they way they are doing it is

they are doing doing 50-75 year olds now
it goes in reverse order for booking

so 75 year olds can book on day 1, 74 on day 2, etc

when they actually get the shot is TBD
 
worm said:
alberta is young but this is for all of alberta (they live in the old part of alberta - Lethbridge, but it doesnt really matter in terms of the booking)

apparently they way they are doing it is

they are doing doing 50-75 year olds now
it goes in reverse order for booking

so 75 year olds can book on day 1, 74 on day 2, etc

when they actually get the shot is TBD
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That's cool. Being organized is an interesting concept.
 
My parents 80,85 are getting theirs on the 11th. So glad as they are crazy making with their lack of ability to park their old asses at home. Like, I get it. My mom makes me crazy on a good day so my dad wants out of the house lol. Still, kee your hearing aids out and go keep busy in another area of the house. Then Mom gets cranky about not being able to see my kiddo. Well, be a responsible adult and we can chat. Sigh.
 
J&J has been running another trial with the same vaccine, but two doses. Lotta nerds speculating that based on the technology they use and based on their efficacy with one dose, a two dose thing will have similar efficacy as the Russian sputnik vaccine. So it would take it from 70 to 90%.

In other words if you get that vaccine you're still likely getting a second dose eventually.
 
blkngldbabe said:
My parents 80,85 are getting theirs on the 11th. So glad as they are crazy making with their lack of ability to park their old asses at home. Like, I get it. My mom makes me crazy on a good day so my dad wants out of the house lol. Still, kee your hearing aids out and go keep busy in another area of the house. Then Mom gets cranky about not being able to see my kiddo. Well, be a responsible adult and we can chat. Sigh.
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Just make sure to check up on the vaccine they get. For most I believe it still takes a couple weeks to kick in, so might still be an annoying time where they want to go straight from the clinic to your place to visit or so.
 
UWHabs said:
Just make sure to check up on the vaccine they get. For most I believe it still takes a couple weeks to kick in, so might still be an annoying time where they want to go straight from the clinic to your place to visit or so.
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Thankfully they live almost an hour away (as awful as that sounds). I’m hoping I can push them off until April but the way just ended the Simcoe lockdown after a week. Ugh.
 
One thing I'll say about the vaccines is that, yes it's true that there have been 0 deaths for anyone who got vaccinated but that is going to change in a real world situation. One of the criticisms in the trials was that there were very few deaths or even serious cases across the board, even from those who received the placebo. Very few old folks took part in the trial so I would take that statistic with a big fat grain of salt. This idea that the vaccines will turn covid into the sniffles for everyone is great. I love the idea and I'd sign up for that. But there is little data to back that up at this point.

Case in point: between J&J, novavax, Pfizer and moderna there were 73 severe cases total; 6 were vaccinated, rest were placebo. I think there were under 10 deaths total (in the placebo group) so to use that 100% statistic confidently is a bit aggressive.

There will be a reduction, maybe even a significant one, but it won't be perfect and we should still be somewhat careful at least until transmission significantly decreases. Or at the least, the vulnerable people should be careful and we should continue to try to protect them.


Tldr: don't go licking your 90 year old relatives once they're vaccinated. They're still high risk as long as there's transmission.
 
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Preston said:
One thing I'll say about the vaccines is that, yes it's true that there have been 0 deaths for anyone who got vaccinated but that is going to change in a real world situation. One of the criticisms in the trials was that there were very few deaths or even serious cases across the board, even from those who received the placebo. Very few old folks took part in the trial so I would take that statistic with a big fat grain of salt. This idea that the vaccines will turn covid into the sniffles for everyone is great. I love the idea and I'd sign up for that. But there is little data to back that up at this point.

Case in point: between J&J, novavax, Pfizer and moderna there were 73 severe cases total; 6 were vaccinated, rest were placebo. I think there were under 10 deaths total (in the placebo group) so to use that 100% statistic confidently is a bit aggressive.

There will be a reduction, maybe even a significant one, but it won't be perfect and we should still be somewhat careful at least until transmission significantly decreases. Or at the least, the vulnerable people should be careful and we should continue to try to protect them.


Tldr: don't go licking your 90 year old relatives once they're vaccinated. They're still high risk as long as there's transmission.
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So far in UK vaccine has shown a massive reduction in severity no?
 
Aberdeen said:
So far in UK vaccine has shown a massive reduction in severity no?
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Yeah they're just giving everyone one dose for now and both the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines are showing an 80% reduction in hospitalizations after the single dose. Both vaccines fairly similarly effective so far. I suspect Pfizer pulls ahead after the second shot of course.

They will absolutely reduce severity. I'm just challenging the 100% reduction in death claim. There isn't enough data for that and it obviously won't hold up.
 
Question for the virologists here: if someone has bad side effects from a vaccine, does that mean they probably would have been slaughtered by the actual virus?

Thanks and Gosh Bless,
MSOS
 
MSOS said:
Question for the virologists here: if someone has bad side effects from a vaccine, does that mean they probably would have been slaughtered by the actual virus?

Thanks and Gosh Bless,
MSOS
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I don't believe there's any evidence of that but I'd tweet that question to Nate Silver to confirm.
 
Preston said:
Yeah they're just giving everyone one dose for now and both the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines are showing an 80% reduction in hospitalizations after the single dose. Both vaccines fairly similarly effective so far. I suspect Pfizer pulls ahead after the second shot of course.

They will absolutely reduce severity. I'm just challenging the 100% reduction in death claim. There isn't enough data for that and it obviously won't hold up.
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I don't think anyone expects the 100% to hold up for all time, but if you cut hospitalizations down 80%, and say of the hospitalizations, you do like 50% better in outcome from them, then yeah, your death rather will probably be like 1% or less than before.

Which is the point. If it can reduce the worst outcomes enough to only look like a brutally bad flu season, I'll take it.
 
UWHabs said:
I don't think anyone expects the 100% to hold up for all time, but if you cut hospitalizations down 80%, and say of the hospitalizations, you do like 50% better in outcome from them, then yeah, your death rather will probably be like 1% or less than before.

Which is the point. If it can reduce the worst outcomes enough to only look like a brutally bad flu season, I'll take it.
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Bingo

Viruses will have different strains , twists and turns every year

Science has their framework in place now and will need to be on top of the new issues that will arise

Its all about keeping the hospitals and medical world from not busting at the seams

There is one benefit from all of this that the world has had their wake up call and adjusting

Improved hygiene from all facets .....hand washing , masks , public area sanitation , screening , etc...

The world is too complex and the magnitude of global travel and potential spread of diseases , this had to happen at some point

The bigger issue is getting ahead of the next one and the complexity of government and capitalism making the right choice of putting money before people safety .
 
UWHabs said:
I don't think anyone expects the 100% to hold up for all time, but if you cut hospitalizations down 80%, and say of the hospitalizations, you do like 50% better in outcome from them, then yeah, your death rather will probably be like 1% or less than before.

Which is the point. If it can reduce the worst outcomes enough to only look like a brutally bad flu season, I'll take it.
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Thing is people do expect 100% because people keep repeating that statistic on social media.

From a public health perspective the point is to reduce or eliminate transmission because transmission results in mutations. It took just a year of widespread transmission for some decent immunity evading mutations and even deadlier mutations to come about. That's because of the amount of transmission. It needs to go down.

From each individual's perspective, we'd be happy to get the sniffles from this shit, absolutely. But doctors and scientists are looking a bit more big picture than us.
 
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