OT: MLB Thread
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wiseguy1
Well-known member
Centre field is a bit iffy. Only have a rookie penciled in right now.
Pompey should be fine. He's solid on D. You don't need an all star at every position. LF/2B/a closer/another reliever/#1 starter are more important needs for them. If they even get 3/5 , and then fill the rest internally, like Travis at 2b, swap a starter/navarro for a reliever, then sign a LF + SP they would be favored for the east. But they didn't need to address 3b, they did need another hitter, they should have signed Tomas, they would have had another power hitter + filled LF. I know Blue Jays fans are happy with the trade, but they still have plenty of holes left to fill, they are on the right path. If AA goes half ass it will be exactly like 2012 again, he really needs to finish the job this time.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
It was mentioned on twitter by one of the Habs boards members yesterday, regarding the Donaldson trade that every time the Leafs board "roars in approval" for a Jays trade that it flops. I questioned him on this and he noted 3 specific trades that I wanted to break down for his benefit (140 characters on twitter isn't enough, and the argument presumes that the Leafs board is an echo chamber, so posting it there wouldn't make a ton of sense imo)
1) "The Marlins Trade"
Toronto traded:
-Henderson Alvarez
-Adeiny Hecchavaria
-Jake Marisnik
-Justin Niccolino
-Yunel Escobar
-Jeff Mathis
-Anthony Desclafani
Marlins Traded:
-Jose Reyes
-Mark Buehrle
-Emilio Bonifacio
-Josh Johnson
-John Buck
So, obviously a huge trade with a lot of moving pieces. Some of those pieces (on the Marlins side) have seen little or no MLB action so we'll use some assumed value and projections to determine whether or not this trade has flopped or not.
First, the Marlins side of things. Henderson Alvarez has turned into the the centrepiece of of the deal so far putting up 4.1 WAR since the trade. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher who has probably maxed out most of his upside unless he develops a legitimate out pitch at some point. Definitely a solid piece with a lot of value, only being 24 years old.
Marisnick is the ultimate anti moneyball prospect. Big, athletic, pretty swing, great defender in CF....but has done little to nothing with the bat through out most of his career. He'll stick around and have a career based on playing plus defence in CF, but looks like a 4th OF'er without a lot of offensive projection.
Hechavarria was dubbed a defensive wizard in the making, but he's actually profiled below average so far. He has no offensive ability to speak of and has been a -1.3 WAR for the Marlins since the trade
Niccolino & Desclafani are both good pitching prospects, but limited upsides on both. Niccolino has had increasing levels of difficulty in missing bats as he's climbed through the minors and looks like a #5 at this point who will have to live off of his control (which is quite good). Desclafani also has fairly limited stuff (his slider is a major work in progress and at nearly 25 yrs old, may never materialize) but with a 50-55 fastball, probably has a future as a reliever, maybe developing into a high leverage quality guy
Mathis & Escobar were throw ins. Escobar was moved straight up for Derek Dietrich before ever playing a game for the Marlins. Dietrich is a 2B with some pop (14 HR in 416 mlb ab's) but has some defensive issues, and an ugly enough platoon split that his likely future is as a platoon LF'er. The only positive there is that he's on the good side (LHB) of the platoon. Jeff Mathis is a backup catcher and not a particularly good one. -0.4 WAR since the trade.
On the Jays side of the ledger, to date Reyes has provided 5.4 WAR for the Jays, Buerhle has provided 6.2, and with the other 2 (Johnson & Bonifacio) flaming out hard at a combined .7 WAR. So when we compare total value since the trade, the Jays have received 12.3 WAR to the Marlins 3.1 WAR so far, with none of the prospects traded seeming to have high future value/projections. I can see the argument for the trade not working out the way the Jays had hoped (Johnson was supposed to be a 3-4 WAR top of the rotation arm and Bonifacio a super sub), but they've received excellent value none the less. It's hard to look at this trade and not call it a win.
2) The Dickey trade
Mets trade
-R.A Dickey
-Josh Thole
-Mike Nickeas
Jays trade
-Noah Syndergaard
-Travis D'Arnaud
-John Buck
-Wuilmer Becerra
I'll preface this by saying that I generally dislike knuckleballers, specifically dislike Dickey and hated this trade at the time (still do for the most part). I was also not alone in the outright dislike of this trade at the time, so I kind of object to this being part of the "roar of approval" from the Leafs board on this deal. On with the show though...
On the Jays side, Dickey has provided 4.2 WAR, while his personal manservant Thole has been a -0.5 WAR. Nickeas is generally a waste of food but only has 1 MLB AB since the trade...so **** him. Jays side of the ledger is 3.7 WAR.
On the Mets side, Syndergaard looks every bit the front of the rotation stud he's been projected as for the last few seasons. He'll likely get his shot at proving it this season. Pitching prospects are volatile, and he's had a few health concerns (but nothing major), but yeah, this one stings. D'arnaud has been a 1.5 WAR player in 533 AB since the trade, and looks like he's rounding into the average plus defensive catcher with above average catcher stick he's been billed as during his time as a prospect. Also kind of stings. Buck never played a game for the Mets, and Becerra is a somewhat interesting 20 yr old prospect who still hasn't graduated from rookie ball.
The Jays have "won" this trade in value to this point, but in future value it's going to be bad.
3) Lyle Overbay for David Bush
Well...this was a random choice. First off, this is hardly a big trade. Secondly, after having one good season immediately after the trade, Dave Bush became a complete waste of a rotation spot for the rest of his career. Overbay provided a total of 6.8 WAR for Toronto over 5 seasons, while Bush provided 6.6 WAR for the Brewers over 5 seasons. Pretty much a wash.
1) "The Marlins Trade"
Toronto traded:
-Henderson Alvarez
-Adeiny Hecchavaria
-Jake Marisnik
-Justin Niccolino
-Yunel Escobar
-Jeff Mathis
-Anthony Desclafani
Marlins Traded:
-Jose Reyes
-Mark Buehrle
-Emilio Bonifacio
-Josh Johnson
-John Buck
So, obviously a huge trade with a lot of moving pieces. Some of those pieces (on the Marlins side) have seen little or no MLB action so we'll use some assumed value and projections to determine whether or not this trade has flopped or not.
First, the Marlins side of things. Henderson Alvarez has turned into the the centrepiece of of the deal so far putting up 4.1 WAR since the trade. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher who has probably maxed out most of his upside unless he develops a legitimate out pitch at some point. Definitely a solid piece with a lot of value, only being 24 years old.
Marisnick is the ultimate anti moneyball prospect. Big, athletic, pretty swing, great defender in CF....but has done little to nothing with the bat through out most of his career. He'll stick around and have a career based on playing plus defence in CF, but looks like a 4th OF'er without a lot of offensive projection.
Hechavarria was dubbed a defensive wizard in the making, but he's actually profiled below average so far. He has no offensive ability to speak of and has been a -1.3 WAR for the Marlins since the trade
Niccolino & Desclafani are both good pitching prospects, but limited upsides on both. Niccolino has had increasing levels of difficulty in missing bats as he's climbed through the minors and looks like a #5 at this point who will have to live off of his control (which is quite good). Desclafani also has fairly limited stuff (his slider is a major work in progress and at nearly 25 yrs old, may never materialize) but with a 50-55 fastball, probably has a future as a reliever, maybe developing into a high leverage quality guy
Mathis & Escobar were throw ins. Escobar was moved straight up for Derek Dietrich before ever playing a game for the Marlins. Dietrich is a 2B with some pop (14 HR in 416 mlb ab's) but has some defensive issues, and an ugly enough platoon split that his likely future is as a platoon LF'er. The only positive there is that he's on the good side (LHB) of the platoon. Jeff Mathis is a backup catcher and not a particularly good one. -0.4 WAR since the trade.
On the Jays side of the ledger, to date Reyes has provided 5.4 WAR for the Jays, Buerhle has provided 6.2, and with the other 2 (Johnson & Bonifacio) flaming out hard at a combined .7 WAR. So when we compare total value since the trade, the Jays have received 12.3 WAR to the Marlins 3.1 WAR so far, with none of the prospects traded seeming to have high future value/projections. I can see the argument for the trade not working out the way the Jays had hoped (Johnson was supposed to be a 3-4 WAR top of the rotation arm and Bonifacio a super sub), but they've received excellent value none the less. It's hard to look at this trade and not call it a win.
2) The Dickey trade
Mets trade
-R.A Dickey
-Josh Thole
-Mike Nickeas
Jays trade
-Noah Syndergaard
-Travis D'Arnaud
-John Buck
-Wuilmer Becerra
I'll preface this by saying that I generally dislike knuckleballers, specifically dislike Dickey and hated this trade at the time (still do for the most part). I was also not alone in the outright dislike of this trade at the time, so I kind of object to this being part of the "roar of approval" from the Leafs board on this deal. On with the show though...
On the Jays side, Dickey has provided 4.2 WAR, while his personal manservant Thole has been a -0.5 WAR. Nickeas is generally a waste of food but only has 1 MLB AB since the trade...so **** him. Jays side of the ledger is 3.7 WAR.
On the Mets side, Syndergaard looks every bit the front of the rotation stud he's been projected as for the last few seasons. He'll likely get his shot at proving it this season. Pitching prospects are volatile, and he's had a few health concerns (but nothing major), but yeah, this one stings. D'arnaud has been a 1.5 WAR player in 533 AB since the trade, and looks like he's rounding into the average plus defensive catcher with above average catcher stick he's been billed as during his time as a prospect. Also kind of stings. Buck never played a game for the Mets, and Becerra is a somewhat interesting 20 yr old prospect who still hasn't graduated from rookie ball.
The Jays have "won" this trade in value to this point, but in future value it's going to be bad.
3) Lyle Overbay for David Bush
Well...this was a random choice. First off, this is hardly a big trade. Secondly, after having one good season immediately after the trade, Dave Bush became a complete waste of a rotation spot for the rest of his career. Overbay provided a total of 6.8 WAR for Toronto over 5 seasons, while Bush provided 6.6 WAR for the Brewers over 5 seasons. Pretty much a wash.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I generally agree with everything here, other than the comparison to 2012 (by which I assume that you mean 2013...). 2013 was an epic disappointment, but a lot of that was on the backs of injuries/ridiculously bad career worst performances. Dickey and Buehrle were the only starters to throw more than 140 innings. The only other starter to throw more than 100 innings was Esmil Rogers....which tells you just how bad the situation was. Josh Johnson went from solid #2-3 starter to complete implosion, Morrow went from a really promising 2012 to complete implosion, and Rickey Romero's implosion continued unabated (when it was pretty reasonable to expect at least some bounce back after the elbow surgery). Offensively, Melky was a -.9 WAR due to a tumor in his back that impeded his ability to do anything other than suck, and Arencibia went from meh to shit in a hurry.
Had the Jays just received career norm performances from their entire core, they would have been a 88-90 win team. Which is more or less what happened last season when we just got career norm performances from everyone.
uke:
XPOFAN
New member
106 years and counting is a long time.
The Cubs are notorious for spending lots of dough in the off-season and then finishing in the bottom of the standings during the season.
Cubs have all star positional prospects. They also have a fairly decent rotation now. I think with Epstein in charge, I don't think they will make the same mistakes as previously. Lester is a #1 starter, and is only 30. I know a lot of their players are prospects, but they are literally extremely high upside players that have all the tools and under team control for many years. If there was 1 team that was on the verge of switching from rebuild to contenders, it was Chicago.
CaptainBolduke
Active member
Longer post.
CaptainBolduke
Active member
Melky is a .800ops hitter with average D. That is replaceable.
Ok, but JB is on the wrong side of 30 (34), and him and EE are nearing the end of their deals. Sure they can be resigned, at higher amounts, but JB is going to hit a wall at some point, he still plays the field. Take a look at Abreu, at 36 he just fell off a cliff. It happens more often than not, and it will happen to JB one year too, is it next, or the following? Who knows.
MB is 35 years old, Dickey is 40. Those are the #1/#2 guys now, with Stroman showing big potential. But Sanchez might start in the pen, and hutch was a bit inconsistent last year. They really need a young #1 ace and a closer, and another reliever. Estrada is a regular #5, nothing really impressive. Their hitting should be fine now, even though they have no immediate replacements for JB or EE. They have a couple of decent pitchers in their system, but so do a lot of teams. I just don't see the optimism quite frankly. If they signed Shields for 4 years + traded for a closer/reliever, I would most likely change my opinion. If they signed Moncada, I would say that they are moving in the right direction by finally signing international players which every other team is doing except the Jays. Until then, I just see a team always trying to compete but going 75% of the way and hoping for a miracle for the other 25% which hasn't happened in 20+ years.
BKerr
Banned
Assuming he stays healthy Saunders replaces his bat and has better defense
Fully agree, Melky, while good, is far from being irreplaceable.