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OT: The Funnier Side of Tragedy: Memes and Such

They could do it right now. The only hurdle with autonomous driving is interacting with non-autonomous vehicles.

and pedestrians, and cyclists, and inclement weather, poor road conditions, and...everything else that engineers are finding it hard as hell to program for.

10 years is a relatively optimistic view on when we can expect real autonomous vehicles on the road.
If they're all automated, that problem disappears.

You're kind of glazing over the economics involved in replacing ~300 million passenger vehicles in north america alone, no? Considering that our north american auto manufacturing capacity is about 3 million vehicles a year and 70 million world wide, you're into a generation spanning project just to replace the metal that rolls down the road.
Some small town will eventually partner with some car company and just give everyone free cars and have everyone logged in. They would save so much money in traffic and policing costs it would easily pay for itself. Eventually the cars would be paid for the same way we pay for our phones now.

Sure, the upside of the technology is obvious. But we're talking about 2050+ shit here. The best way to move people efficiently in the majority of settings is going to be good urban transit mixed with robust and relatively high speed (or better) regional rail.
 
I honestly think a decent sized town could have it up and running in a year.

But yeah there would be design overhauls needed to separate pedestrian and car traffic a little more - but even that would be easier with a more consistent and controllable traffic flow.

Might there still be accidents due to animals and weather? Sure. But that's no different than now and traffic would be stopped and re routed instantly.

Of course the real future which would take even longer is replacing asphalt with electrified (and solarific) tiles which both de-ice themselves automatically and charge the vehicles passing above. Even better, make all those autonomous vehicles drones flying just a foot off the ground and then you've solved most all of the problems with animals and weather AND you've dramatically reduced (eliminated?) wear and tear on both vehicles and road surfaces and the need or time to charge the cars at all, which completely changes the entire financial and safety equations of vehicle ownership and use. But that I agree is still a ways away.
 
I honestly think a decent sized town could have it up and running in a year.

Nah, I think you're over estimating where autonomous drive really is as a technology currently (One of my numerous gripes with Elon is that he's tried to make us believe that it's right around the corner for 6-7 years now, when Tesla still can't figure out the phantom breaking problem they've had for years ...he's not helping to set realistic expectations for the technology). It's not close to being commercially ready in anything resembling real world conditions. Your scenario would also require those vehicles to stay in town 100% of the time and all other vehicles kept out of town 100% of the time.

It's hard to build a single bridge in 2022 in less than 2 years (Barrie is reconstructing a 4 lane highway overpass bridge on Anne st with no highway connection and it's a ~24 month project ffs) and you think that a decent sized town could construct all the pedestrian separation, traffic flow configuration, etc in a single year? I thought Italians knew construction?
 
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. Your scenario would also require those vehicles to stay in town 100% of the time and all other vehicles kept out of town 100% of the time.

100% autonomous within the town, yes.

But outside the town those autonomous cars can be driven manually. No issue there.

It's hard to build a single bridge in 2022 in less than 2 years (Barrie is reconstructing a 4 lane highway overpass bridge on Anne st with no highway connection and it's a ~24 month project ffs) and you think that a decent sized town could construct all the pedestrian separation, traffic flow configuration, etc in a single year? I thought Italians knew construction?

A huge part of it is that it makes road and traffic design so much simpler, all while giving huge savings in other parts of the city's budget.
 
Just a little optimistic on current tech in here. They still can't make a cell phone battery that lasts for more than 5 hours.

"Zekebahn Tech Support? Yeah the system is down and thousands of people are stranded in their cars. What should we do?"

"Um... Everything looks fine on my end. I'm gonna try turning it off and back on again and see if that works."
 
A huge part of it is that it makes road and traffic design so much simpler, all while giving huge savings in other parts of the city's budget.

But transit already does that, without magically purchasing 10's of thousands of surface vehicles and instantly imagining 10 yrs of autonomous drive development work into existence.

I don't think you're grasping the costs involved in this man.

Let's take a rando small town like Orillia for a second (population ~35K). Assuming that only 2/3rds of the town gets a "free" vehicle, that's 23,450 vehicles to purchase. Now, we're going to gloss over the fact that vehicle use cases vary from person to person and North Americans tend to like larger vehicles...so we're going to pretend that everyone will be cool with a 4 dr sedan. Average sticker price on a 4 door sedan EV is about 50K, so we're into 1.172 billion dollars on the purchase of vehicles that will maybe, maybe have an average use span of 10 yrs before mechanical failure makes them not worth fixing. Then throw in all of the other road projects you're describing (likely into the 100's of millions of dollars, even in a small town like Orillia). If you don't continue making the expenditures on the vehicles (1.172 billion every 10 years, so 117 million a year) the entire system falls apart.

Light rail costs approximately 100 million per KM to build (full build, right of way preparation, pedestrian access projects, etc). You could build a LRT down West St (4km), from the waterfront to West St (3km) and the length of coldwater road (from the north end of the water front to the shopping centres by the highway) would be an additional 3.5 km...for the same cost as just the purchase of the autonomous vehicles that would need to be replaced in 10 years. LRT cars last on average for an upward of 30 years.

Same up front costs, often better travel times (when grade separated, LRT is generally faster through a town/city than vehicle traffic) that aren't slowed by traffic incidents or bad road conditions, generations of value provided.

Personal vehicles are an extremely expensive, inefficient mode of transport to build a system around.
 
I'll be long dead before any meaningful gamechanging developments take place. Which is fine.

The GTA has finally gotten it's act together on transit. The projects that are in the pipeline and allegedly full funded should see with the best regional transit in north america within ~10 yrs or so and more like a relatively poorly serviced area of central Europe rather than the typical north american transit wasteland.
 
The GTA has finally gotten it's act together on transit. The projects that are in the pipeline and allegedly full funded should see with the best regional transit in north america within ~10 yrs or so and more like a relatively poorly serviced area of central Europe rather than the typical north american transit wasteland.
Oh yeah, improvements will come but I'm talking technological advancements that we haven't seen before. If we ever tried to (we won't and I understand why), it would take several decades to catch up to the Japan's of the world. The "cutting edge" technology that they use was available in the 80s and earlier. But yes, we'll be in a better spot soon enough and that is genuinely exciting.
 
But transit already does that, without magically purchasing 10's of thousands of surface vehicles and instantly imagining 10 yrs of autonomous drive development work into existence.

I don't think you're grasping the costs involved in this man.

Let's take a rando small town like Orillia for a second (population ~35K). Assuming that only 2/3rds of the town gets a "free" vehicle, that's 23,450 vehicles to purchase. Now, we're going to gloss over the fact that vehicle use cases vary from person to person and North Americans tend to like larger vehicles...so we're going to pretend that everyone will be cool with a 4 dr sedan. Average sticker price on a 4 door sedan EV is about 50K, so we're into 1.172 billion dollars on the purchase of vehicles that will maybe, maybe have an average use span of 10 yrs before mechanical failure makes them not worth fixing. Then throw in all of the other road projects you're describing (likely into the 100's of millions of dollars, even in a small town like Orillia). If you don't continue making the expenditures on the vehicles (1.172 billion every 10 years, so 117 million a year) the entire system falls apart.

Light rail costs approximately 100 million per KM to build (full build, right of way preparation, pedestrian access projects, etc). You could build a LRT down West St (4km), from the waterfront to West St (3km) and the length of coldwater road (from the north end of the water front to the shopping centres by the highway) would be an additional 3.5 km...for the same cost as just the purchase of the autonomous vehicles that would need to be replaced in 10 years. LRT cars last on average for an upward of 30 years.

Same up front costs, often better travel times (when grade separated, LRT is generally faster through a town/city than vehicle traffic) that aren't slowed by traffic incidents or bad road conditions, generations of value provided.

Personal vehicles are an extremely expensive, inefficient mode of transport to build a system around.

1. Like I said - the prices would work like cellphones. The basic ones are basically free, but the user can purchase more expensive ones.The real cost like with phones would be the service provider.

2. I'm not sure you're factoring in just how much government money is spent on traffic policing and enforcement, and then on top of that the cost of traffic itself. We're talking an easy 10s of millions per year. One year's budget could cover the purchase of the basic vehicles - and the car company would take less just to have that locked in market and subscription base.
 
Oh yeah, improvements will come but I'm talking technological advancements that we haven't seen before. If we ever tried to (we won't and I understand why), it would take several decades to catch up to the Japan's of the world. The "cutting edge" technology that they use was available in the 80s and earlier. But yes, we'll be in a better spot soon enough and that is genuinely exciting.

Yeah, it will be a while before we do anything actually difficult. The Windsor to Quebec City corridor would be perfect for proper high speed service (Japanese and European standard is 320kmh). Should take about 8 hours total (same length trip takes about 8 hours in France, 10 in Italy, 8 in Germany, 6 hrs in Japan).

But 200kmh rail with a robust enough system (as much and as many dedicated tracks as possible). Even just 200kmh service turns Windsor to Ottawa or Montreal into a 6-7 hr trip, which isn't bad.
 
1. Like I said - the prices would work like cellphones. The basic ones are basically free, but the user can purchase more expensive ones.The real cost like with phones would be the service provider.

The basic ones being free are still billions having to be spent more or less constantly. Massively, massively expensive and an expense that has to be maintained or the system falls apart.

2. I'm not sure you're factoring in just how much government money is spent on traffic policing and enforcement, and then on top of that the cost of traffic itself. We're talking an easy 10s of millions per year. One year's budget could cover the purchase of the basic vehicles - and the car company would take less just to have that locked in market and subscription base.

How do you figure that I'm not factoring that in? Transit has the exact same effect on limiting the cost of traffic enforcement on a per user basis and limits traffic (and thus the cost of infrastructure upkeep) to a much, much greater extent. It's a core feature of a pro transit argument.

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Keeping in mind that LRT's on dedicated right of ways are 50% faster than buses.

Basically everything good you're saying about giving everyone personal autonomous vehicles can be said about just expanding rapid transit options, making it cheap and comfortable on top of a bunch of other things it does.

As for one year's traffic budget paying for the cost of the vehicles...not even fucking close. The entire budget for the Toronto police is 1.1 billion, even if we hacked the cost estimate of giving away EV's to the town of Orillia by just giving away the "basics" (which is 33K per unit instead of 50, but let's call it half because I'm nice) and you're still into almost 600M in initial purchase price for a town of 35K. Even if this saved half of the Toronto police budget (probably wouldn't even be close but I can't be bothered to drill into their budget documents), that would barely pay for Orillia (population: a couple dozen), nevermind Toronto (population: at least 5 Orillias...at least).


Doing the entire province is a cost of 275B (25K * 11 million...which is again me being a sweetheart, there's 13 million passenger vehicles in Ontario...and a Nissan fucking Leaf costs 37K, not 25). This idea is wildly, wildly expensive with a price tag that just keeps repeating itself every 7-10 years over and over and over again forever or the regional economy grinds to a fucking halt.

We also haven't even gotten into the lithium part of this discussion and the environmental impact that amount of battery manufacturing would have.

Embrace transit Zeke. The reason you don't like it is that it's been underfunded and shit here your whole life.
 
I used to hate transit too. But when done properly and efficiently there is nothing better. Absolutely nothing.
 
Have to agree about the transit here. See Japan for how it’s done right and even they had to spend a ton of money to implement what they have now. Also bullet train prices still ain’t cheap.
 
That's largely fake news. It's not as crowded as folks make it out to be there, though I guess it could depend on when you're out and about. Rush hour, I'd imagine, would be worse. But that's why you only visit and don't live in that hell hole work culture.
 
That 60 people crammed in the bus though... No thanks
The mentality in North America is likely going to change in the coming future. I think we may be into one of the last generations of people that have single family living quarters. Once you’re used to constantly being around others a 60 person bus isn’t really a big deal…sans covid of course.
 
Urban driving sucks. Gimme great public transit all day. I mean if the TTC covered most of whole GTA with LRT and Subways from say Oshawa to Oakville to Milton to Booklin, would you really need to drive most days? Ambitious for sure, but we really can't continue on the path we are on, can we?
 
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