OT: The Official Toronto Raptors Thread
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mbow30
Spudmeister Supreme
lotsa good signs tonight. This is a game they lose basically any other time over the past 2 years.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
This group needs to turn Gary into whatever it is "Gary" is supposed to do here, and the rest of the dead salary we have laying around into functioning NBA bodies.
Gary-Boucher-Thad-McDaniels is 43 million dollars in salary. Let's turn this bench over hard and see what happens.
There's some mediocre ass contracts belonging to players who could help us out there.
De'Andre Hunter, Evan Fournier, Bojan Bogdanovich, Duncan Robinson, Hardaway Jr, Andrew Wiggins, Kuzma, Bertans, Thybulle, Kennard....
We need NBA players on the bench, that's it.
Gary-Boucher-Thad-McDaniels is 43 million dollars in salary. Let's turn this bench over hard and see what happens.
There's some mediocre ass contracts belonging to players who could help us out there.
De'Andre Hunter, Evan Fournier, Bojan Bogdanovich, Duncan Robinson, Hardaway Jr, Andrew Wiggins, Kuzma, Bertans, Thybulle, Kennard....
We need NBA players on the bench, that's it.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
To be optimistic for a second...
The east is mostly a log jam between us in 12th (13-20) and Cleveland/Knicks in 6th (18-15). We're only a mini heater away from passing Chicago-Atlanta-Brooklyn and getting up into play-in spots and nobody in there is actually good. The next tier above that is Knicks, Indy, Miami, Orlando, and Cleveland. Of those 5, Knicks and Cleveland are the only two with good net ratings. Orlando and Miami and above average but not by a lot, and Indy is probably primed to come back to earth at some point (30th in defensive rating).
As is, I think this mix can be pretty good even with the bench short comings. If you run down that list, there just aren't many teams who can throw 2 all star level players at you every night. If we fix the bench, I think we can legitimately be good.
With that said, 49 games left and 13-20 is a rough spot to be in. Probably need to go 30-19 (50 win pace) the rest of the way to even get close to a playoff spot. 27-22 for the playins.
The east is mostly a log jam between us in 12th (13-20) and Cleveland/Knicks in 6th (18-15). We're only a mini heater away from passing Chicago-Atlanta-Brooklyn and getting up into play-in spots and nobody in there is actually good. The next tier above that is Knicks, Indy, Miami, Orlando, and Cleveland. Of those 5, Knicks and Cleveland are the only two with good net ratings. Orlando and Miami and above average but not by a lot, and Indy is probably primed to come back to earth at some point (30th in defensive rating).
As is, I think this mix can be pretty good even with the bench short comings. If you run down that list, there just aren't many teams who can throw 2 all star level players at you every night. If we fix the bench, I think we can legitimately be good.
With that said, 49 games left and 13-20 is a rough spot to be in. Probably need to go 30-19 (50 win pace) the rest of the way to even get close to a playoff spot. 27-22 for the playins.
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Detroit wants to keep Bogdan
HabsFan1
Well-known member
Nice to see RJ drive the ball tho. He seems to be fairly successful in getting the foul calls. That is a skill in itself that is valuable.
Poeltl looked better tonight too.
I actually think the additions made may cut into Scotties scoring numbers slightly. Yet to be seen.
Bench needs another body. And not necessarily a ball handler, maybe a 3 and D guy (yes I said it) hahaha.
Poeltl looked better tonight too.
I actually think the additions made may cut into Scotties scoring numbers slightly. Yet to be seen.
Bench needs another body. And not necessarily a ball handler, maybe a 3 and D guy (yes I said it) hahaha.
Zeke hates puppies too
guaranteed loss without this trade
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I don't think this was that. Rj and quickley just came in and gave their normal performances. Its been what was so perplexing about the raptors so far this season, they've always performed worse than the sum of their parts, especially late in the 4th. This looked like a decent to good nba team with a professional effort.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Wanted to do a quick analytic breakdown on the Raptors roster as it sits now, using the tools from Dunksandthrees.com. If it's in brackets, it's their percentile. Everyone is in order of their current EPM
Scottie +4.3 BPM (95)/5.4 Estimated Wins (98) : He doesn't stand out in any one category but he's solid across pretty much everything, offensively and defensively which when you add it up equals a top 15 player in the league.
Forecast: Scottie started the season hotter than this and has been slowly trending down with a moving average in the low 3's/high 2's over the last 6 weeks. That might be his level, or it could have been influenced by the team playing like dogshit around him. It's going to be interesting to watch how a better mix impacts him. I see a bounce back to stay in the 4-5 range, which is a top 10-20 player in the league.
Pascal +1.8 BPM (83)/ 3.5 EW (91) : The analytics have never loved him, though they still say he's fringe all star level overall, which tracks. On the offensive end he's in the 7th percentile for 3 point shooting, which obviously craters some of his value. He makes that up being high volume and high efficiency (80) in mid range and rim shooting%. On the defensive end he's fine, average overall, but EPM doesn't like that he's low event generating. 32nd percentile in steals, 7th in blocks
Forecast: Pascal has been between a 1.5 & 2.3 EPM for the last 5 years, this is what he is.
Quickley +1.1 (78)/ 1.8 EW (79) : 84th percentile offensive player this season, while being a bit below average in defensive impact that looks like it's a drop in his steal rate (EPM likes events). It will be interesting to see if that recovers to similar impact as his previous systems where EPM ranked him as a 88-90th percentile player overall, so basically the impact of Pascal. The room for efficiency/impact improvement with Quickley is in his assist rate. 15.5% AST is 66th percentile, but not what you're wanting to get out of a lead guard. For comparison, Dennis is rocking a 93rd percentile this season.
Forecast: Expanded roles can be a double edged sword. Was he crushing cans in secondary matchups or is he actually a 85-90th percentile player? He was pretty obviously not happy with the lesser role in NY this year and it hurt his defensive numbers (he led the Raptors in defensive net rating yesterday, so that's encouraging). The offensive numbers are nice and there might be another gear there with his combo of skills (elite pull up 3 point shooter, elite catch and shoot 3 point shooter, elite mid range floater) but I question the playmaking unless Darko commits to find P/R matchups with him (he ran some tasty PR with Jake in the 1st Q). I don't think we see an explosion from him this year as he settles into the role. But the same guy he was in NY, in more minutes...which is a pretty, pretty good player. 20-22 points, 5-6 dimes on solid efficiency.
Dennis +0.9 (77)/ 2.6 (85) : I'm going to preface this all by saying that I think Dennis has been fine, but this is the first profile I run into where I have some issues with how high the player has been ranked. Bad TS% and basically all other offensive efficiency stats (30th percentile TS, 20th percentile eFG) but his assist numbers are spectacular, but I think EPM is getting fooled though. The assist numbers are from being force fed the ball in a point guard dominant offence, and Dennis has shown pretty questionable decision making and shot selection while out on the floor with the 1st unit. Defensively EPM has him as dead nuts average, 0.0. But he has the worst defensive net rating on the team other than Gary.
Forecast: He's better off of the bench though still holds the ball too much, but I think Quickley will help his efficiency. Counting stats will take a hit, but the better spacing may help his pretty ugly scoring efficiency numbers. EPM has mostly considered him a 60-75th percentile player through most of his career aside from a few ugly down years. I think where he is currently (77) is high water mark for him, but he's not much worse the rest of the time either.
Jake +0.1 (69) / 1.7 (76) : The Austrian God of Efficiency (97th percentile in TS%) has struggled with role and the new offence this year, because his one feature offensive skill is as a roll man and until yesterday night, we didn't run pick and roll with him much. Despite that, he's been fine this year. 91st percentile in blocks, 90th and 92nd percentile in the rebounding categories and overall rotation best defensive net ratings. Use him properly and he's a solid, if limited, contributor
Forecast: If we commit to PR with him and Quickley, Jake's offensive impacts will improve, it's that simple. His defensive impacts are right in line with his usual. Jake was an 84th percentile player offensively last season, 67th this season. Give him some reps as the roll man and he'll make an impact.
RJ -1.0 (57) / 1.0 (65) : So yeah, EPM doesn't love him because the shooting efficiency on the one end and the lack of defensive events at the other. Both are valid arguments against him and I wouldn't argue much with the overall ~60th percentile type ranking. There's some silver linings in there though. Defensively, he had a solid defensive net rating compared to the guys he was on the floor with the most (Brunson and Randle struggle. Offensively, we saw a lot of the RJ experience last night with his ability to get into the lane more or less at will, but difficulty with finishing through the contact he draws but finishing the night with a respectable offensive impact. EPM has him at a 71st percentile offensive player and that tracks for me. There's some room for growth in his game when he starts turning some of those collapsing defences into corner kick outs and adds more strength to the frame so he can finish through the contact more often.
Forecast: This is him at this point. As long as the keys to chuck are taken away from him (2 3pt attempts last night compared to 5 a night with the Knicks), I think he's going to be solid enough.
Boucher -1.8 (48) / .3 (48) : Could be natural skill decline as he ages, could be a new coach that doesn't trust him and can't use him in his offence, dunno, but Boucher has pretty obviously been pushed to the edges of the rotation despite few alternate options (even opting to play the atrocious Precious Achiuwa over him the entire season). EPM seems to dislike Boucher's defence despite the 88th percentile in blocks and the defensive net rating being solid compared to the rest of the team.
Forecast: Darko doesn't get how to use him, and doesn't care for him. Hopefully we just trade him for something decent Darko will use. Boucher's epm moving average has been trending down and last nights 11 minutes with only one board to show for it doesn't bode well for a change in role with the player movement.
Gary -2.0 (45) / 0.5 (52) : 14th percentile TS% from our bench scorer tells us more or less everything we need to know. The only place EPM likes him is turnover%, which is 96th percentile....can't turn the ball over if you don't pass it, so there's something. Defensively, the steal rates are down (60th, down from the low 90's the last 2 seasons) which might be Darko not allowing him to ball hawk all the time and chase tips, or might be Gary coming into the season what looked to be well out of playing shape.
Forecast: Fuck this guy. His usage will go down with Quickley and Dennis sharing PG duties and the bench having it's own ball handler now and he's only ever remotely useful with the ball in his hands.
Scottie +4.3 BPM (95)/5.4 Estimated Wins (98) : He doesn't stand out in any one category but he's solid across pretty much everything, offensively and defensively which when you add it up equals a top 15 player in the league.
Forecast: Scottie started the season hotter than this and has been slowly trending down with a moving average in the low 3's/high 2's over the last 6 weeks. That might be his level, or it could have been influenced by the team playing like dogshit around him. It's going to be interesting to watch how a better mix impacts him. I see a bounce back to stay in the 4-5 range, which is a top 10-20 player in the league.
Pascal +1.8 BPM (83)/ 3.5 EW (91) : The analytics have never loved him, though they still say he's fringe all star level overall, which tracks. On the offensive end he's in the 7th percentile for 3 point shooting, which obviously craters some of his value. He makes that up being high volume and high efficiency (80) in mid range and rim shooting%. On the defensive end he's fine, average overall, but EPM doesn't like that he's low event generating. 32nd percentile in steals, 7th in blocks
Forecast: Pascal has been between a 1.5 & 2.3 EPM for the last 5 years, this is what he is.
Quickley +1.1 (78)/ 1.8 EW (79) : 84th percentile offensive player this season, while being a bit below average in defensive impact that looks like it's a drop in his steal rate (EPM likes events). It will be interesting to see if that recovers to similar impact as his previous systems where EPM ranked him as a 88-90th percentile player overall, so basically the impact of Pascal. The room for efficiency/impact improvement with Quickley is in his assist rate. 15.5% AST is 66th percentile, but not what you're wanting to get out of a lead guard. For comparison, Dennis is rocking a 93rd percentile this season.
Forecast: Expanded roles can be a double edged sword. Was he crushing cans in secondary matchups or is he actually a 85-90th percentile player? He was pretty obviously not happy with the lesser role in NY this year and it hurt his defensive numbers (he led the Raptors in defensive net rating yesterday, so that's encouraging). The offensive numbers are nice and there might be another gear there with his combo of skills (elite pull up 3 point shooter, elite catch and shoot 3 point shooter, elite mid range floater) but I question the playmaking unless Darko commits to find P/R matchups with him (he ran some tasty PR with Jake in the 1st Q). I don't think we see an explosion from him this year as he settles into the role. But the same guy he was in NY, in more minutes...which is a pretty, pretty good player. 20-22 points, 5-6 dimes on solid efficiency.
Dennis +0.9 (77)/ 2.6 (85) : I'm going to preface this all by saying that I think Dennis has been fine, but this is the first profile I run into where I have some issues with how high the player has been ranked. Bad TS% and basically all other offensive efficiency stats (30th percentile TS, 20th percentile eFG) but his assist numbers are spectacular, but I think EPM is getting fooled though. The assist numbers are from being force fed the ball in a point guard dominant offence, and Dennis has shown pretty questionable decision making and shot selection while out on the floor with the 1st unit. Defensively EPM has him as dead nuts average, 0.0. But he has the worst defensive net rating on the team other than Gary.
Forecast: He's better off of the bench though still holds the ball too much, but I think Quickley will help his efficiency. Counting stats will take a hit, but the better spacing may help his pretty ugly scoring efficiency numbers. EPM has mostly considered him a 60-75th percentile player through most of his career aside from a few ugly down years. I think where he is currently (77) is high water mark for him, but he's not much worse the rest of the time either.
Jake +0.1 (69) / 1.7 (76) : The Austrian God of Efficiency (97th percentile in TS%) has struggled with role and the new offence this year, because his one feature offensive skill is as a roll man and until yesterday night, we didn't run pick and roll with him much. Despite that, he's been fine this year. 91st percentile in blocks, 90th and 92nd percentile in the rebounding categories and overall rotation best defensive net ratings. Use him properly and he's a solid, if limited, contributor
Forecast: If we commit to PR with him and Quickley, Jake's offensive impacts will improve, it's that simple. His defensive impacts are right in line with his usual. Jake was an 84th percentile player offensively last season, 67th this season. Give him some reps as the roll man and he'll make an impact.
RJ -1.0 (57) / 1.0 (65) : So yeah, EPM doesn't love him because the shooting efficiency on the one end and the lack of defensive events at the other. Both are valid arguments against him and I wouldn't argue much with the overall ~60th percentile type ranking. There's some silver linings in there though. Defensively, he had a solid defensive net rating compared to the guys he was on the floor with the most (Brunson and Randle struggle. Offensively, we saw a lot of the RJ experience last night with his ability to get into the lane more or less at will, but difficulty with finishing through the contact he draws but finishing the night with a respectable offensive impact. EPM has him at a 71st percentile offensive player and that tracks for me. There's some room for growth in his game when he starts turning some of those collapsing defences into corner kick outs and adds more strength to the frame so he can finish through the contact more often.
Forecast: This is him at this point. As long as the keys to chuck are taken away from him (2 3pt attempts last night compared to 5 a night with the Knicks), I think he's going to be solid enough.
Boucher -1.8 (48) / .3 (48) : Could be natural skill decline as he ages, could be a new coach that doesn't trust him and can't use him in his offence, dunno, but Boucher has pretty obviously been pushed to the edges of the rotation despite few alternate options (even opting to play the atrocious Precious Achiuwa over him the entire season). EPM seems to dislike Boucher's defence despite the 88th percentile in blocks and the defensive net rating being solid compared to the rest of the team.
Forecast: Darko doesn't get how to use him, and doesn't care for him. Hopefully we just trade him for something decent Darko will use. Boucher's epm moving average has been trending down and last nights 11 minutes with only one board to show for it doesn't bode well for a change in role with the player movement.
Gary -2.0 (45) / 0.5 (52) : 14th percentile TS% from our bench scorer tells us more or less everything we need to know. The only place EPM likes him is turnover%, which is 96th percentile....can't turn the ball over if you don't pass it, so there's something. Defensively, the steal rates are down (60th, down from the low 90's the last 2 seasons) which might be Darko not allowing him to ball hawk all the time and chase tips, or might be Gary coming into the season what looked to be well out of playing shape.
Forecast: Fuck this guy. His usage will go down with Quickley and Dennis sharing PG duties and the bench having it's own ball handler now and he's only ever remotely useful with the ball in his hands.
zeke
Well-known member
Career Splits
As Reserve: 22.6mpg, 22.8usg%, 57.1ts%, Per 36: 19.0pts, 4.5ast/1.8to
As Starter: 37.2mpg, 22.7usg%, 58.6ts%, Per 36: 20.7pts, 4.7ast/1.2to
The majority of his starts (21) came last year:
Last Year Splits
As Reserve: 25.6mpg, 20.4usg%, 56.3ts%, Per 36: 17.3pts, 4.1ast/1.7to
As Starter: 38.6mpg, 22.3usg%, 60.5ts%, Per 36: 21.1pts, 4.8ast/1.2to
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
So I did all of that to do this...
combined EPM of the rotations (split into starters/bench) of the EC teams in order of current standings
Boston: 16.5 (18.7/-2.2)
Milwaukee: 11.6 (15.5/-3.9)
Philly: 15.0 (15.1/-0.1)
Orlando: 3.2 (2.5/0.7)
Miami: 5.3 (9.3/-4.0)
Cleveland: 9.9 (11.6/-1.7)
NY: 6.0 (5.3/0.7)
Brooklyn: 2.4 (3.0/-.6)
Chicago: 0.7 (0.8/-0.1)
Atlanta: 4.5 (6.2/-1.7)
Toronto: 3.4 (6.3/-2.9)
Charlotte: -4.0 (5.0/-9.0)
Washington: - a lot (-3.9/Ugly...)
Detroit: No (-4.2/omg)
So where I see the upside for this lineup is in Quickley pushing up into the 2-3 EPM range from his current 1.1 (he's been a 2.3 the last 2 years) and Jake getting back up into his 1.4+ range from his current +0.1. That would push the starting lineup into a range closer to +8-9 EPM which is playoff competitive in the east, a big step down from the elite starting groups, but competitive with anyone else. The bench is still worse than anyone we can expect to be competing with for ranking and could use some help as well, but I think that has to come externally.
combined EPM of the rotations (split into starters/bench) of the EC teams in order of current standings
Boston: 16.5 (18.7/-2.2)
Milwaukee: 11.6 (15.5/-3.9)
Philly: 15.0 (15.1/-0.1)
Orlando: 3.2 (2.5/0.7)
Miami: 5.3 (9.3/-4.0)
Cleveland: 9.9 (11.6/-1.7)
NY: 6.0 (5.3/0.7)
Brooklyn: 2.4 (3.0/-.6)
Chicago: 0.7 (0.8/-0.1)
Atlanta: 4.5 (6.2/-1.7)
Toronto: 3.4 (6.3/-2.9)
Charlotte: -4.0 (5.0/-9.0)
Washington: - a lot (-3.9/Ugly...)
Detroit: No (-4.2/omg)
So where I see the upside for this lineup is in Quickley pushing up into the 2-3 EPM range from his current 1.1 (he's been a 2.3 the last 2 years) and Jake getting back up into his 1.4+ range from his current +0.1. That would push the starting lineup into a range closer to +8-9 EPM which is playoff competitive in the east, a big step down from the elite starting groups, but competitive with anyone else. The bench is still worse than anyone we can expect to be competing with for ranking and could use some help as well, but I think that has to come externally.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
The one year of his career he was super efficient was of course the title year. 93rd percentile in TS% (63.2%). His TS% has crept up to 59% this season (59th percentile) which is a fair bit more efficient than he's been since the keys to the offence were given to him a few years ago.
If we can see the return of +60% TS pascal, with playmaking Pascal (his assist rates have gone from 14% in the title year to 21-24% over the last few years, while actually seeing a decline in turnover %), there might be another Peak Pascal gear in there.
Seeing him splash a bunch of 3's is definitely something to watch going forward.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
5 turnovers with only 1 dime and a bad defensive net rating on the night will do that.
Fwiw, Dunksandthrees provides it's own asterisk on single game EPM
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zeke
Well-known member
can't just say "5 turnovers oopsie". those 5 turnovers could have been bad shots instead of bad passes and offensive fouls, and then he'd have zero turnovers but a shit fg%.