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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

A couple of thoughts a day after the trade:
  • Aging Curves are real (at least to THIS Front Office): Teo and LGJ are going into their 30th and 29th year respectively. They are at their tail end of their prime years. Are they guys you want to give big FA dollars too? I would have liked too with Teo - as I get EE vibes from him, but EE was basically a 1B/DH type, and they already have that guy. If you are going to sign early 30's guys, they need to be elite, and I don't think Teo and LGJ are elite.
  • They do need another "middle of the order" bat. When they lost Teo last year, their offence took a dip, they haven't replaced his bat.
  • But, their Defence is gonna be GOOD, switch Espinal with Bo and boom, elite defensive team, which will make the pitching that much better.
  • Aging Curves.
  • Bets on if Shatkins extends or resigns Varsho in 4 year?
  • It is not like the Catching situation is old either, as Kirk is 24 and Janson is 28. By the time they age out, there should be another prospect in the wings (it is not like they aren't drafting catchers anymore).
  • Is defence the new market inefficiency?
 
The pitcher roster rules are in, so the team needs 4 bench players. If we pencil in the lineup with Kirk at DH and Jansen at C, then Biggio and Merrifield/Espinal are 2. They still need 2 more bench spots.

One will be an OF who can hit lefties. It wouldn't surprise me if they keep Varsho/KK in CF against a bunch of lefties, but you don't want both there. And you need an option against the really nasty ones.

But that still leaves one mostly open bench spot. Vlad does tend to need some time off at DH, so it wouldn't shock me to see them opt for a 1b/dh type. Someone who can play 30ish games at 1b, another 60-80 as DH, and a PH the rest of the time.
 
UWHabs said:
The pitcher roster rules are in, so the team needs 4 bench players. If we pencil in the lineup with Kirk at DH and Jansen at C, then Biggio and Merrifield/Espinal are 2. They still need 2 more bench spots.

One will be an OF who can hit lefties. It wouldn't surprise me if they keep Varsho/KK in CF against a bunch of lefties, but you don't want both there. And you need an option against the really nasty ones.

But that still leaves one mostly open bench spot. Vlad does tend to need some time off at DH, so it wouldn't shock me to see them opt for a 1b/dh type. Someone who can play 30ish games at 1b, another 60-80 as DH, and a PH the rest of the time.
Click to expand...
My guess on the bench

Espinal
Biggio
RHH OF
2 of Barger Horowitz Lopez Lukes

ideally it’s only one spot for those 4 dudes and they look for a better than Biggio Clad backup
 
There are a couple of in-house options that moved up the rankings last year who could get some PT in 2023. Spencer Horwitz is a 1B who will probably get a long look in spring training and could be one of those bench pieces.

Addison Barger had an excellent season and turned some heads at the Arizona Fall League. Keep an eye on these two.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Initially Influenced by Ichiro, Addison Barger Is Hitting His Way to Toronto

The power-hitting Toronto Blue Jays infield prospect grew up in Washington state, influenced by Ichiro.
blogs.fangraphs.com blogs.fangraphs.com
 
Pwner said:
Aging Curves are real (at least to THIS Front Office): Teo and LGJ are going into their 30th and 29th year respectively. They are at their tail end of their prime years. Are they guys you want to give big FA dollars too? I would have liked too with Teo - as I get EE vibes from him, but EE was basically a 1B/DH type, and they already have that guy. If you are going to sign early 30's guys, they need to be elite, and I don't think Teo and LGJ are elite.
Click to expand...

I guess it comes down to the philosophy you want to see out of your club. I understand that you can't push your chips into the middle and roster manage like it's all or nothing every year, but there has to be a limit to how much value you're willing to put on years of cheap future control compared to likely near term production. Teo is really, really likely to be a top 15 stick in the AL again this year. He hits RHP well, and fucking mashes LHP. There's no holes there to worry about filling. Also as I mentioned last night, his left field defensive numbers are pretty much dead nuts average, so if you're moving Gurriel (which I'm entirely cool with), Teo to LF makes so much sense. It makes him more impactful overall and absolutely makes your team better by having him. If you want to turn around and make this move for Varsho afterwards, then have at it. Teo-Springer-Varsho is an outstanding OF that can mash and is above average defensively. If you're trying to maximize your chances of winning in 2023, that's absolutely the best way to go.

After that, let him walk. The risk of not having Erik Swanson in 2024 isn't really a risk. Bullpen arms are mercurial and constantly available. Putting oversized value on the years of cheap control on a 29 yr old reliever is just bad asset management. 4+ WAR LF'ers are hard to find. Good relievers aren't. Worry about filling all of the holes on your 2024 roster next winter.
 
2yr Stats Update

1. LF Springer (33): 925pa, 135wrc+, 4.7war650
2. SS Bichette (25): 1387pa, 125wrc+, 4.5war650
3. 1B Guerrero (24): 1404pa, 149wrc+, 4.2war650
4. DH Kirk (24): 730pa, 123wrc+, 4.0war650
5. C Jansen (28): 453pa, 124wrc+, 5.7war650
6. 3B Chapman (30): 1243pa, 110wrc+, 4.3war650
7. RF Varsho (26): 907pa, 104wrc+, 5.0war650
8. 2B Espinal (28): 737pa, 104wrc+, 3.7war650
9. CF Kiermaier (33): 611pa, 97wrc+, 3.8war650

X. UT Merrifield (34): 1270pa, 89wrc+, 2.3war650
X. UT Biggio (28): 597pa, 90wrc+, 1.3war650
X.
X.



SP1 Manoah (25): 51gs, 85era-, 5.0war32
SP2 Gausman (32): 64gs, 77era-, 4.9war32
SP3 Bassitt (34): 57gs, 84era-, 3.9war32
SP4 Berrios (28): 64gs, 107era-, 2.3war32
SP5 Ryu (36): 37gs, 104era-, 2.3war32
SP6 Kikuchi (32): 61gs, 118era-, 0.3war32
SP7 White (28): 46gs, 124era-, 0.5war32

RP1 Romano (30): 125gms, 51era-, 1.9war65
RP2 Swanson (29): 90gms, 59era-, 1.5war65
RP3 Cimber (32): 149gms, 63era-, 0.9war65
RP4 Bass (35): 143gms, 65era-, 0.8war65
RP5 Mayza (31): 124gms, 78era-, 0.7war65
RP6 Pop (26): 85gms, 88era-, 0.5war65
RP7 Garcia (32): 123gms, 90era-, 0.5war65
RP8 Richards (30): 115gms, 110era-, 0.1war65
 
MindzEye said:
I guess it comes down to the philosophy you want to see out of your club. I understand that you can't push your chips into the middle and roster manage like it's all or nothing every year, but there has to be a limit to how much value you're willing to put on years of cheap future control compared to likely near term production. Teo is really, really likely to be a top 15 stick in the AL again this year. He hits RHP well, and fucking mashes LHP. There's no holes there to worry about filling. Also as I mentioned last night, his left field defensive numbers are pretty much dead nuts average, so if you're moving Gurriel (which I'm entirely cool with), Teo to LF makes so much sense. It makes him more impactful overall and absolutely makes your team better by having him. If you want to turn around and make this move for Varsho afterwards, then have at it. Teo-Springer-Varsho is an outstanding OF that can mash and is above average defensively. If you're trying to maximize your chances of winning in 2023, that's absolutely the best way to go.

After that, let him walk. The risk of not having Erik Swanson in 2024 isn't really a risk. Bullpen arms are mercurial and constantly available. Putting oversized value on the years of cheap control on a 29 yr old reliever is just bad asset management. 4+ WAR LF'ers are hard to find. Good relievers aren't. Worry about filling all of the holes on your 2024 roster next winter.
Click to expand...
I think if you were running the offseason in reverse, I'd agree. You do the Moreno deal to bring in Varsho, sign KK, and then when you think about it, you keep Teo and try to figure out the pen in another way.

I bet they figured they would have a better chance at one of the FA outfield options and could afford to deal Teo then. But then they missed out on them, and had to pivot. Because given injuries and days off, there'd still be plenty of ABs for someone like Teo, and he would compliment the current OF crew. And yeah, it's not like he's JD Martinez defensively or anything.

Management does get into minimizing risk, and I'm sure next year we'll enjoy having an asset rather than just the QO pick from Teo. But yeah, it does make a hole in the lineup for this year.
 
Brian Anderson is a guy we were allegedly interested in a Teo deal last year. Is he a bench bat we bring in? Can play OF/3B.
 
We def need another OF option. A guy probably gets significant ABs with Springer and KK likely seeing some IL times. Not sure I want to see a Biggio - Varsho - Merrifield OF for long stretches. Though anyone we get at this point might not be that much better than the in-house options.

Atkins said he sees Varsho mostly in LF. That’s interesting as he’d probably grade out better than Springer in RF. Prob to defer to the vet already moving off CF.

go all in. Don’t be pussies. Make another move for a legit BP arm. Figure out a deal for Reynolds. Add one more quality starter to replace Kikuchi/White.

fuck them prospects.
 
UWHabs said:
I think if you were running the offseason in reverse, I'd agree. You do the Moreno deal to bring in Varsho, sign KK, and then when you think about it, you keep Teo and try to figure out the pen in another way.

I bet they figured they would have a better chance at one of the FA outfield options and could afford to deal Teo then. But then they missed out on them, and had to pivot. Because given injuries and days off, there'd still be plenty of ABs for someone like Teo, and he would compliment the current OF crew. And yeah, it's not like he's JD Martinez defensively or anything.
Click to expand...

Yeah...but that's kind of their job. To strategically lay out the plans for the off season and then execute it. I would argue that results like these are a far more likely eventuality when you go into the off season with priorities that don't put 2023 competitiveness as the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd highest priorities on your list. That their first move of the off season was about seasons of control because they were under bad assumptions about the market for replacement OF'ers, that's just bad management. If they misread the market on Nimmo, that's on them and them alone.
UWHabs said:
Management does get into minimizing risk, and I'm sure next year we'll enjoy having an asset rather than just the QO pick from Teo. But yeah, it does make a hole in the lineup for this year.
Click to expand...

I mean, yeah. We'll have an asset next summer instead of the pick...but does that outweigh the benefit of having Teo in your lineup in 2023? Nah.
 
MindzEye said:
Then this all just keeps getting dumber and dumber. He's literally a god tier RF'er defensively. A pile of his value is locked into that.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's a shame to have to defer to Springer and not line up the OF in the best way. Hopefully he can be like a Carl Crawford or Alex Gordon in LF and just be ridiculously valuable anyways.
 
Probably nothing to worry about. Both KK and Springer will see plenty of time on IL and Varsho will be left manning CF. It’ll be the other OF spots we’ll be worrying about.

how the offseason is shaking out I’d def have kept Teo and just signed one of the RPs. You know he’s going to rake in a contract year.
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah...but that's kind of their job. To strategically lay out the plans for the off season and then execute it. I would argue that results like these are a far more likely eventuality when you go into the off season with priorities that don't put 2023 competitiveness as the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd highest priorities on your list. That their first move of the off season was about seasons of control because they were under bad assumptions about the market for replacement OF'ers, that's just bad management. If they misread the market on Nimmo, that's on them and them alone.


I mean, yeah. We'll have an asset next summer instead of the pick...but does that outweigh the benefit of having Teo in your lineup in 2023? Nah.
Click to expand...
I'm sure the front office doesn't feel like the one year downgrade is impossible to overcome, but yeah, it always sucks to be in a good position and have to take that step backwards to keep moving forward.

In the long run, the Teo deal should be good for the team. But it's definitely a lot harder to like than this last deal, all things considered.
 
axlsalinger said:
There are a couple of in-house options that moved up the rankings last year who could get some PT in 2023. Spencer Horwitz is a 1B who will probably get a long look in spring training and could be one of those bench pieces.

Addison Barger had an excellent season and turned some heads at the Arizona Fall League. Keep an eye on these two.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Initially Influenced by Ichiro, Addison Barger Is Hitting His Way to Toronto

The power-hitting Toronto Blue Jays infield prospect grew up in Washington state, influenced by Ichiro.
blogs.fangraphs.com blogs.fangraphs.com
Click to expand...
I agree, but both still need to play, and there really aren't alot of bench PA available on our team. I expect both of these guys to be in Buffalo and be more an emergency callup or in Barger's case, 2B is a nightmare scenario.

Lukes and Lopez probably have the inside track, and frankly, i'd like to think we can do better than this? At least one anyways.

In a perfect world, you sign a RHH OF4 be it Cutch/Grossman/Duval and a 1B/DH to spell Vlad like Belt/Aguilar and bump Biggio down to guy who fills in everywhere but not every often, Espinal who partners with Whit, and whoever of Lukes/Otto you want to cheer
 
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