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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

So, the supporting cast of jobbers besides Kiermaier ( he really, really needs to sit more with Varsho in CF)have kinda been good so far. You cant really complain about how Biggio/IKF/Clement/Schneider have been.

Varsho looks much better, and the pitching for the most part has been very good.

The problem, is that Vlad, Kirk, Bichette and Springer, the 4 guys they need to be really good, flat out have not. Vlad and Kirk have been better lately, but Bo has been terrible, and Springer looks cooked.

If the luck on the jobber train runs out, and or the pitching takes a dip then these guys can be in trouble.
 
Offense is a bit down league wide so far. By wRC+ most of the jays look fine.

RF Springer 86pa, 104wrc+ (.230babip)
1B Guerrero 86pa, 118wrc+ (.226babip)
SS Bichette 74pa, 90wrc+ (.255babip)
DH Turner 66pa, 175wrc+ (.386babip)
CF Varsho 61pa, 122wrc+ (.216babip)
LF Schneider 41pa, 112wrc+ (.261babip)
2B Biggio 54pa, 136wrc+ (.433babip)
3B Falefa 55pa, 110wrc+ (.324babip)
C Kirk 61pa, 59wrc+ (.227babip)

PH Vogelbach 18pa, 108wrc+ (.222babip)
OF Kiermaier 49pa, 48wrc+ (.321babip)
IF Clement 42pa, 103wrc+ (.286babip)
C Jansen 4pa, 9wrc+ (.000babip)
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
So, the supporting cast of jobbers besides Kiermaier ( he really, really needs to sit more with Varsho in CF)have kinda been good so far. You cant really complain about how Biggio/IKF/Clement/Schneider have been.

Varsho looks much better, and the pitching for the most part has been very good.

The problem, is that Vlad, Kirk, Bichette and Springer, the 4 guys they need to be really good, flat out have not. Vlad and Kirk have been better lately, but Bo has been terrible, and Springer looks cooked.

If the luck on the jobber train runs out, and or the pitching takes a dip then these guys can be in trouble.
Click to expand...

On the flipside, if the top 4 can pick it up, while the depth continues, they could have a nice run. Bi, Kirk, and KK are the 3 that are really under-performing. Springer is going downhill, but as long as he can keep drawing walks, you can live with him at the top of the lineup.

Although you wonder if at some point they might give some of the hot hands more top of the lineup ABs, even just to shake things up. Try a few games with Biggio leadoff and Springer down in the 5/6 spots or something.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
It concerns me that there is just not enough SLG in this lineup anymore and I don’t see a solution
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Schneider and Varsho are more SLG than anything else in their offensive profiles. In theory Vlad should be there too.

A lot of the other guys (Bo, Kirk, Turner, etc...) don't have the raw power, but should be able to get balls to the gaps. If everyone in the lineup has a 100+ OPS+/wRC+, then the runs will come even without the HRs.
 
I haven't followed baseball stats closely enough to know exactly how this ranks offhand, but iirc this should be a good amount of power in the lineup i think:

Career ISO:

Power

Schneider .301
Springer .213
Jansen .210
Guerrero .209

Solid

Varsho .190
Vogelbach .189
Bichette .185
Turner .178
Biggio .159
Kiermaier .157

Weak

Kirk .128
Falefa .086
Clement .078
 
zeke said:
I haven't followed baseball stats closely enough to know exactly how this ranks offhand, but iirc this should be a good amount of power in the lineup i think:

Career ISO:

Power

Schneider .301
Springer .213
Jansen .210
Guerrero .209

Solid

Varsho .190
Vogelbach .189
Bichette .185
Turner .178
Biggio .159
Kiermaier .157

Weak

Kirk .128
Falefa .086
Clement .078
Click to expand...

I dig Schneider but he's a bad bet to maintain elite elite power (~.250+). ~.210 is top 30-45 type power but that looks like it might be in Springer's past (.147 last season, .110 so far this season) and his stick declining has been a gut punch for this lineup that it couldn't afford. Looking at his statcast and batted ball profiles and without some sort of a major adjustment, this is probably him. His launch angle and pull%'s are way down, which suggests he just doesn't get the bat head out as quick as he used to. So I don't think career ISO is particularly useful as a predictive stat here. That power just looks gone.

That 2nd tier is pretty broad though. ~.190 covers ~60th to ~90th in ISO which is kind averagish overall among starters/regulars

That bottom tier is all bottom of the barrel type stuff, bottom 10% of the league.

Viewed as a whole, it's 2 (maybe 3) guys with plus but not elite power. A bag of average, and then 3 guys with basically no power.
 
well I didn't call Schneider elite power i slotted him in with the good power guys.

and including that "bag of average" extends 10 men deep, which I'm guessing is pretty good compared to most teams.
 
zeke said:
well I didn't call Schneider elite power i slotted him in with the good power guys.
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I didn't say that you did. I was just addressing his career ISO.

zeke said:
and including that "bag of average" extends 10 men deep
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It does what now? The "bag of average" is basically 4 guys. Biggio and KK are below average (and Springer has been as well over his last 750PA's)

zeke said:
which I'm guessing is pretty good compared to most teams.
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Probably not. Jays were 18th in ISO last year and didn't exactly prioritize power in the off season. They're 21st this season so far as well.

If we take 2022-24 with a min PA of 650, here's how we look

Schneider: .301 (Would be 3rd, but obviously isn't close to minimum PA)
Jansen: .246 (Would be 15th, but doesn't meet minimum PA's by a lot.)
Vlad: .191 (T-74)
Varsho: .191 (T-74)
Vogelbach: .182 (95)
Bichette: .171 (115)
Turner: .171 (115)
Springer: .169 (122)
--------Median------- (128)
KK: .140 (178)
Biggio: .140 (178)
Kirk: .114 (222)
Falefa: .081 (251)

257 qualified


That is not a good power hitting team. Basically nothing up top when Jansen is hurt or sitting (pending finding out what Schneider is). 3 guys who have okay but just okay power production (one of them is 34 and has been below the median for his last 750 AB's), a few more scraping the median (keeping in mind that ~300 PA a year includes a lot of utility and part time guys, this is not good) and then 4 guys basically lacking power.

That's not good. If that was good, we'd rank somewhere better than ~20th in the league over the last 180 games.
 
MindzEye said:
I didn't say that you did. I was just addressing his career ISO.



It does what now? The "bag of average" is basically 4 guys. Biggio and KK are below average (and Springer has been as well over his last 750PA's)
Click to expand...

10 deep in at least "average" power.

MindzEye said:
Probably not. Jays were 18th in ISO last year and didn't exactly prioritize power in the off season. They're 21st this season so far as well.

If we take 2022-24 with a min PA of 650, here's how we look

Schneider: .301 (Would be 3rd, but obviously isn't close to minimum PA)
Jansen: .246 (Would be 15th, but doesn't meet minimum PA's by a lot.)
Vlad: .191 (T-74)
Varsho: .191 (T-74)
Vogelbach: .182 (95)
Bichette: .171 (115)
Turner: .171 (115)
Springer: .169 (122)
--------Median------- (128)
KK: .140 (178)
Biggio: .140 (178)
Kirk: .114 (222)
Falefa: .081 (251)

257 qualified


That is not a good power hitting team. Basically nothing up top when Jansen is hurt or sitting (pending finding out what Schneider is). 3 guys who have okay but just okay power production (one of them is 34 and has been below the median for his last 750 AB's), a few more scraping the median (keeping in mind that ~300 PA a year includes a lot of utility and part time guys, this is not good) and then 4 guys basically lacking power.

That's not good. If that was good, we'd rank somewhere better than ~20th in the league over the last 180 games.
Click to expand...

never said they were a great power hitting team, but your numbers show the same as mine - at worst average power, maybe better.

last year they were pretty much bang on average, this year so far they're 21st in iso this year with the top of the order not hitting for any power at all yet.
 
zeke said:
10 deep in at least "average" power.
Click to expand...

This is still wrong though. 8 tops, and that's if Springer hasn't turned into a pumpkin, Jansen stays healthy, Vogelbach gets enough AB's to make anything resembling a difference, and Schneider is actually a MLB stick.

That's likely a mixed bag in there. I'd be on Springer being toast, but Schneider actually having MLB pop. Vogelbach getting ~200AB, and Jansen playing 70-80 games again.

Basically, most nights we're going to be running out an light hitting lineup. Though yes, we could run an averagish power hitting lineup out there if we were so inclined when everyone is healthy.

but your numbers show the same as mine - at worst average power, maybe better.
Click to expand...

Wait...what? The fuck they do. We don't have a proper regular who is a good bet to finish in the top 60 in ISO ffs and we have 3-4 guys likely to get 400+ PA that are in the bottom 20%.

The ISO ranking from the last ~180 games isn't lying. About 20th.

last year they were pretty much bang on average
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lol, "bang on average". I'm getting Zeke'd.

We were as far from the average as the average was from 9th in MLB. We were below average.
 
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