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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

meh we could quibble over those two .140s you have there if you want.

but for the record, if you're running a lineup out there with a few well above average power hitters and then 7-8 deep in average power hitters, that's a well above average power lineup, "if we were so inclined".

but yes, on averate it should be an averagish power lineup, with a few above average power guys, a few average, and a few below.
 
zeke said:
meh we could quibble over those two .140s you have there if you want.
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You could, but I don't know if you should. KK's ISO over the last 2+ seasons is .140. Over the last 4+ seasons. .136, over the past 5+ seasons .137

You have to start reaching into his early career to find the seasons propping up his career ISO. Biggio is similar. First two seasons around .185-.190 and then ~.140 over the last 3+

There's no reason to expect them to revert to the more powerful versions of themselves from 4+ years ago.
 
With Vlad and Bo currently under 2 years of control left, I think you have to start wondering if they are "long-term core" pieces.

Vlad's 2023 - 24 wRC+ is 118, which ranks him 13th this year in wRC+ and last year 11th overall, his fWAR is 0.1 (15), and last year 1.3 (18), seems super-duper average to me. How much would you feel confident in giving an average 1st baseman with weight issues a long term deal? Plus how much would it cost? I think if you could sign him for 8 x 144 (18 aav), you would, but I would be very concerned if it was for 20+ long term. I actually don't know what his trade value is, as teams could look at his stats but also he has name recognition. Vlad seems like a guy that could break out on a different team once he gets out of his comfort zone and has to prove himself to a new organization.

Bo, is the better overall player. He has a history of being a 4 - 5 (f) win player, basically every year he has been a regular he has put up a 4 - 5 (f) wins a year. His defense was average last year (16th overall) but his defense has been bad this year (still early). I think you have to have some projection on what he is going forward. A lot of his batting value is based on hits - last year his avg was 306 but his obp was 339 meaning he didn't take a lot of walks (BB% 4.5)- and as he ages, his approach might degrade that hit tool. You can say Bo is a 125 wRC+ hitter.

With Bo being a bad/average defender at SS, his value would be hightened if he moved off SS and on to a less defense intensive position like 2nd or 3rd. I don't know if he would move off SS with the Jays. And how much is a 4.5 (f) win player that needs to move off SS worth to the team, and how much would you be comfortable paying him? I wouldn't like 25+ long-term (maybe if he agreed to a permanent move to 3rd?). I would look in to trading him now or in the off-season. Something like 3 top 100 prospects or 4 top ten team prospects would be worth it.

Take that money you would pay them and invest that into a 3rd baseman like Bregman maybe? And have the prospects coming up to give you multiple years of cheap control.
 
Pwner said:
With Vlad and Bo currently under 2 years of control left, I think you have to start wondering if they are "long-term core" pieces.

Vlad's 2023 - 24 wRC+ is 118, which ranks him 13th this year in wRC+ and last year 11th overall, his fWAR is 0.1 (15), and last year 1.3 (18), seems super-duper average to me. How much would you feel confident in giving an average 1st baseman with weight issues a long term deal? Plus how much would it cost? I think if you could sign him for 8 x 144 (18 aav), you would, but I would be very concerned if it was for 20+ long term. I actually don't know what his trade value is, as teams could look at his stats but also he has name recognition. Vlad seems like a guy that could break out on a different team once he gets out of his comfort zone and has to prove himself to a new organization.

Bo, is the better overall player. He has a history of being a 4 - 5 (f) win player, basically every year he has been a regular he has put up a 4 - 5 (f) wins a year. His defense was average last year (16th overall) but his defense has been bad this year (still early). I think you have to have some projection on what he is going forward. A lot of his batting value is based on hits - last year his avg was 306 but his obp was 339 meaning he didn't take a lot of walks (BB% 4.5)- and as he ages, his approach might degrade that hit tool. You can say Bo is a 125 wRC+ hitter.

With Bo being a bad/average defender at SS, his value would be hightened if he moved off SS and on to a less defense intensive position like 2nd or 3rd. I don't know if he would move off SS with the Jays. And how much is a 4.5 (f) win player that needs to move off SS worth to the team, and how much would you be comfortable paying him? I wouldn't like 25+ long-term (maybe if he agreed to a permanent move to 3rd?). I would look in to trading him now or in the off-season. Something like 3 top 100 prospects or 4 top ten team prospects would be worth it.

Take that money you would pay them and invest that into a 3rd baseman like Bregman maybe? And have the prospects coming up to give you multiple years of cheap control.
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Trade both Flabi and Pretty boy in great hauls and reboot
 
MapleLeafBlueJayBoy said:
Vladdy is such a disappointment.
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The problem with Vlad is he did have that one year where he was great, so you know the talent is there. But outside of that year, he's like an .800 OPS first baseman. Other than that year, he's basically Rhys Hoskins, and yeah, you don't want to commit like 30m a year in a long term deal for that.

But if he ever discovers it again, it wouldn't completely surprise to have him run a 1.000 OPS for the next 5 years, and then you look like a moron if you drop him. I think you either give in, pray that he can have at least one or two years of greatness, or you let him go, and pray that he signs with a team you don't care about. It'd be horrible if he signed with like Baltimore and then went on to just crush the Jays every time they played each other for the next 10 years.
 
UWHabs said:
The problem with Vlad is he did have that one year where he was great, so you know the talent is there. But outside of that year, he's like an .800 OPS first baseman. Other than that year, he's basically Rhys Hoskins, and yeah, you don't want to commit like 30m a year in a long term deal for that.

But if he ever discovers it again, it wouldn't completely surprise to have him run a 1.000 OPS for the next 5 years, and then you look like a moron if you drop him. I think you either give in, pray that he can have at least one or two years of greatness, or you let him go, and pray that he signs with a team you don't care about. It'd be horrible if he signed with like Baltimore and then went on to just crush the Jays every time they played each other for the next 10 years.
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I’d withhold judgment until the entire coaching staff has been replaced so whatever damage they’ve done to him can be undone
 
It wasn't just one year though. The year after he was 16th in the AL in wRC+ as a 23 yr old and was the youngest in the top 20 by almost 2 years. That's an excellent season.

His EV is ridiculous this season so far, he's back to launch angle being an issue though. If he keeps beating the shit out of the ball like this, the babip will normalize. If his average launch angle goes up a few degrees, it's 40 HR Vladdy.
 
He would for sure continue to be unremarkable with us, but also for sure would regain his mojo and destroy us on another team.

Tough choice, but I would probably just keep him if the money is reasonable, unless there's a great trade to be made.
 
MindzEye said:
It wasn't just one year though. The year after he was 16th in the AL in wRC+ as a 23 yr old and was the youngest in the top 20 by almost 2 years. That's an excellent season.

His EV is ridiculous this season so far, he's back to launch angle being an issue though. If he keeps beating the shit out of the ball like this, the babip will normalize. If his average launch angle goes up a few degrees, it's 40 HR Vladdy.
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That would be nice.
 
Yeah it's frustrating as fuck, but I still have faith in Vladdy. Maybe not the super-duper-star we once dreamed of, but based on the underlying numbers he can still mash and we should see it sooner rather than later.
 
MindzEye said:
This is still wrong though. 8 tops, and that's if Springer hasn't turned into a pumpkin, Jansen stays healthy, Vogelbach gets enough AB's to make anything resembling a difference, and Schneider is actually a MLB stick.

That's likely a mixed bag in there. I'd be on Springer being toast, but Schneider actually having MLB pop. Vogelbach getting ~200AB, and Jansen playing 70-80 games again.

Basically, most nights we're going to be running out an light hitting lineup. Though yes, we could run an averagish power hitting lineup out there if we were so inclined when everyone is healthy.
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MindzEye said:
Wait...what? The fuck they do. We don't have a proper regular who is a good bet to finish in the top 60 in ISO ffs and we have 3-4 guys likely to get 400+ PA that are in the bottom 20%.

The ISO ranking from the last ~180 games isn't lying. About 20th.
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Last Calendar Year / Combined Projections Going Forward

FullTime Starters

Guerrero .185 / .218
Varsho .184 / .207
Bichette .157 / .175
Turner .187 / .151
Springer .144 / .173

The 5 guys who are probably gonna be playing mostly full time all at least average to good power.

PartTime Guys

Jansen .275 / .213
Schneider .301 / .191
Vogelbach .167 / .177

Biggio .136 / .136
Kiermaier .138 / .126
Clement .133 / .120
Kirk .098 / .136
Falefa .107 / .089

So of the other 4 spots in the lineup, 3 likely combine for averagish power, leaving one slot with not much power at all.

MindzEye said:
lol, "bang on average". I'm getting Zeke'd.

We were as far from the average as the average was from 9th in MLB. We were below average.
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they ranked 18th in ISO at .161 last year. 5pts back of 3 teams tied at 15th. what are you on about.
 
There is no doubt in my mind that both of them are traded with a year left to re-coup prospects, and they sign older FA to replace them, like Goldschmidt and Willy Adames.

Then these losers high five each other over a team with an 88 win ceiling.
 
zeke said:
they ranked 18th in ISO at .161 last year. 5pts back of 3 teams tied at 15th. what are you on about.
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5 points back of average is not "bang on" average. It's below average. As I said, the same spread between us and average is the difference between average and 9th in baseball. It's not an insignificant amount.
 
MindzEye said:
5 points back of average is not "bang on" average. It's below average. As I said, the same spread between us and average is the difference between average and 9th in baseball. It's not an insignificant amount.
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Yeah and the jays were as close to 9th as 9th was to 7th.
 
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