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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

zeke said:
something special about June i don't know about?
Click to expand...

June is that awkward place where it's late enough in the season to have a material impact on when they return the next year. But still early enough that they can return.
ie. if someone has TJ in like August, then they will almost never rush back the following year, and generally they stay out until the start of the season after. And if they go in in March, then you have a lot more flexibility the following season, you can be a little more lenient when you want them back for.

June is kind of a bad spot, since you want to rush them back with enough time to build up to full strength for the playoffs. But that can lead to rushing them back. Although I would expect it matters less for a relievers, since they don't have to work up to the full 100-pitch games.
 
UWHabs said:
June is that awkward place where it's late enough in the season to have a material impact on when they return the next year. But still early enough that they can return.
ie. if someone has TJ in like August, then they will almost never rush back the following year, and generally they stay out until the start of the season after. And if they go in in March, then you have a lot more flexibility the following season, you can be a little more lenient when you want them back for.

June is kind of a bad spot, since you want to rush them back with enough time to build up to full strength for the playoffs. But that can lead to rushing them back. Although I would expect it matters less for a relievers, since they don't have to work up to the full 100-pitch games.
Click to expand...

according to that spreadsheet, the most recent ones...

TJ Oct1 --> Return Sep19 (11.5)
TJ Sep8 -> Return Aug25 (11.5)
TJ Aug10 -> Return Jul27 (11.5)
TJ Aug4 --> Return Sep28 (13)
TJ Aug1 --> Return Jun17 (10.5)
TJ Jul7 ----> Return Jul23 (11.5)
TJ Jul7 ----> Return Sep7 (14)
TJ Jul1 ----> Rerutn Jul22 (12.5)
TJ Jul1 ----> Return Aug4 (13)
TJ Jul1 ----> Return Aug26 (14)
TJ Jun15 --> Return Aug26 (14.5)
TJ Jun10 --> Return Aug 7 (14)
TJ Jun9 ----> Return May14 (11.5)
TJ Jun3 ----> Return Aug4 (14)
TJ Jun1 ----> Return Jul29 (14)
TJ Jun1 ----> Return Jul24 (14)
TJ Jun1 ----> Return Jul28 (14)
TJ Jun1 ----> Return Aug23 (14.5)
TJ Jun1 ----> Return Jul31 (14)
TJ Jun1 ----> Return Aug17 (14.5)
 
fangraphs finally added Zips to their Steamer/zips combined projections. Here's how we look:

RF Springer (33): 595pa, 135wrc+, 4.7war650
SS Bichette (25): 658pa, 128wrc+, 4.4war650
1B Guerrero (24): 637pa, 154wrc+, 4.7war650
DH Kirk (24): 496pa, 133wrc+, 5.2war650
LF Varsho (26): 573pa, 123wrc+, 4.2war650
3B Chapman (30): 665pa, 119wrc+, 4.5war650
C Jansen (28): 467pa, 118wrc+, 4.0war650
2B Espinal (28): 511pa, 104wrc+, 3.1war650
CF Kiermaier (33): 434pa, 87wrc+, 2.6war650

DH Belt (35): 364pa, 122wrc+, 2.1war650
UT Biggio (28): 210pa, 106wrc+, 1.9war650
UT Merrifield (34): 511pa, 95wrc+, 1.4war650



SP Gausman (32): 31gms, 3.56era, 3.5war32
SP Manoah (25): 32gms, 3.74era, 3.0war32
SP Bassitt (34): 31gms, 3.81era, 2.6war32
SP Berrios (28): 31gms, 4.26era, 1.7war32

SW Kikuchi (32): 42gms, 4.17era, 0.7war32
SW Ryu (36): 14gms, 3.79era, 0.3war32
SW White (28): 42gs, 4.38era, 0.3war32

RP Romano (30): 66gms, 3.52era, 0.8war65
RP Swanson (29): 65gms, 3.77era, 0.6war65
RP Bass (35): 62gms, 3.76era, 0.3war65
RP Mayza (31): 57gms, 3.55era, 0.2war65
RP Cimber (32): 60gms, 3.98era, 0.1war65
RP Garcia (32): 70gms, 4.05era, 0.1war65
RP Green (32): 20gms, 3.77era, 0.0war65
RP Richards (30): 54gms, 4.06era, 0.0war65
RP Pop (26): 46gms, 4.07era, 0.0war65



- the projections are very much in love with our position players
- they are only lukewarm on our starting pitching
- they seem pretty pessimistic about the bullpen - though this may be just the way projections treat relievers, I havent checked the other teams
 
I'd imagine those values for relievers are just low because relievers. But yeah, the Jays batters' WAR should be up there with any team in the league. All we're really missing is a 4th bench bat, and whether that's Lopez, Barger, Lukes, Horwitz, or a late FA addition, doesn't really matter much.

SP5 is still a little mystery. Would love to head into the season with a little more stability there, although if Kikuchi actually can be a 4.17 ERA guy then that's more than fine in that spot.
 
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