OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

[axlsalinger]

 

[Killer93]

Team still cant hit. They need lights out pitching to win

 

[Deckie007]

10th in runs
Tied for 4th in WRC+

12th in ERA
22nd in FIP

It's not what you think.

 

[MindzEye]

Hey, do you remember that time we insisted on shuffle fucking the lineup around because something something balance against righties? So we added a bunch of mediocre as fuck left handed sticks who couldn't hit lefties because reasons?

2022: 118 wRC+ vs RHP
2023: 115 wRC+ vs RHP

"Balance"

2022: 115 wRC+ vs LHP
2023: 97 wRC+ vs LHP

"Balance"

 

[Deckie007]

I never cared about it. Just get the best hitters possible regardless of handedness. Easy enough to grab a couple of mashers to play against the truly tough RHP.

 

[Deckie007]

Belt
KK
Utility guy not named Cavan

Would have been more than enough and cost next to nothing and would have let us save some bullets for a real difference maker. I want to like Varsho but he just seems like a LH Kevin Pillar right now.

 

[mbow30]

The varshontrade was a disaster.

 

[axlsalinger]

I don't think he's this bad, but it is looking like a bad trade so far, for sure.

 

[zeke]

eh. varsho's gonna be at least as valuable as moreno for the majority of the years. gabriel still has no patience or power and while he has a gun of an arm there's much more to catcher D than that.

 

[zeke]

Hey, do you remember that time we insisted on shuffle fucking the lineup around because something something balance against righties? So we added a bunch of mediocre as fuck left handed sticks who couldn't hit lefties because reasons?

2022: 118 wRC+ vs RHP
2023: 115 wRC+ vs RHP

"Balance"

2022: 115 wRC+ vs LHP
2023: 97 wRC+ vs LHP

"Balance"

yeah that was predictable.

the defensive upgrade still feels like it should be substantial but i'm not sure it's paid off statistically yet.

 

[mbow30]

eh. varsho's gonna be at least as valuable as moreno for the majority of the years. gabriel still has no patience or power and while he has a gun of an arm there's much more to catcher D than that.

You gotta do better than an avg stick corner outfielder for a fully baked top 3 prospect.

 

[Killer93]

You gotta do better than an avg stick corner outfielder for a fully baked top 3 prospect.

Gotta hit the sweet spot

 

[UWHabs]

You gotta do better than an avg stick corner outfielder for a fully baked top 3 prospect.

I have a feeling it's going to be the sort of deal where technically it's a pretty even trade, but you want more from it, and it will seem like a loss.

Also the bounce back from Lourdes certainly doesn't help things. Varsho should beat him out by the end of the season I still expect, but for a team that wants to be winning now, an extra 1 WAR already in the season would be nice.

It would probably look better if Varsho was doing what he is now but in CF. It is such a waste to have him in LF. Hopefully he can find at least a 2 week stint to just mash the ball, hit like 10 HR in 14 games, and at least make sure the season Stat line comes out on top.

 

[zeke]

You gotta do better than an avg stick corner outfielder for a fully baked top 3 prospect.

why ya gotta make me defend your bredren here?

Varsho is a 26 yr old with 4yrs control very good CF with an average stick and great baserunning (who was a top-25 war player last year at age 25).

Moreno is a 23yr old with 6yrs control maybe good C with an average stick.

 

[zeke]

Bo MVP Watch

AL Ranks:

AVG #1
WAR #2
wRC+ #5
RBI #8
HR #10

 

[worm]

Bo MVP Watch

AL Ranks:

AVG #1
WAR #2
wRC+ #5
RBI #8
HR #10

The only hitter living up to my expectations

 

[zeke]

The only hitter living up to my expectations

Well Chapman and Kiermaier are both still above expectations too.

 

[zeke]

Fangraphs Pre-season Projected wRC+ vs. current:

Kiermaier 87 --> 143 (+56)
Bichette 128 ---> 154 (+26)
Chapman 119 -> 137 (+18)

Merrifield 95 --> 100 (+5)
Belt 124 --------> 112 (-12)

Guerrero 154 ---> 126 (-28)
Jansen 117 ----> 86 (-31)
Springer 136 ---> 104 (-32)
Kirk 132 --------> 96 (-36)
Varsho 122 ----> 79 (-43)
Espinal 104 ----> 52 (-52)
Biggio 107 ----> 51 (-56)


yeah it's definitely some heavy underperformance overall so far.

 

[axlsalinger]

Vladdy really scuffling right now, but he always figures it out. Springer showing signs of coming back to life lately.

Alejandro Kirk is a mystery (kinda like Manoah). Always good since he came up, but suddenly can't hit at all. BB/K rates totally normal but advanced stats are shit so far. Still think he'll come around sooner rather than later.

 

[zeke]

unfortunately the pitching projections don't give us a league-adjusted stat so we have to go with something like raw ERA here:

* Gausman 3.57 ---> 3.03 (-0.54)
* Berrios 4.27 ------> 3.86 (-0.41)
* Bassitt 3.82 ------> 3.80 (-0.02)
* Kikuchi 4.20 -----> 4.56 (+0.36)
* Manoah 3.75 ----> 5.53 (+1.78)

SP a little bit under expectations so far just because Manoah's underperformance is much bigger than any overperformance.

* Mayza 3.56 ------> 0.96 (-2.60)
* Pearson 4.16 ----> 1.93 (-2.23)

* Swanson 3.79 ---> 3.20 (-0.59)
* Romano 3.53 ----> 3.00 (-0.53)
* Richards 4.07 ---> 3.68 (-0.39)

* Bass 3.77 --------> 4.50 (+0.73)
* Cimber 3.99 -----> 4.85 (+0.86)

* Garcia 4.07 ------> 6.46 (+2.39)
* Pop 4.08 --------> 6.59 (+2.51)

BP probably right around expectations so far or close enough.