OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

[zeke]

Yeah, that wasn't me. I was the one upset that we didn't re sign him.



There are 8 hitters in baseball older than 33 with a wRC+ of 115 or higher out of 77 total. Only 15 higher than 100 out of 114.

Maybe we have different definitions of what constitutes something rare happening? Pointing to one other example happening concurrently doesn't make it not rare. This is pure survivorship bias mate. What you're not seeing is the guys not doing it, because they just declined and went away.

8 per year ain't rare. And I count at least 10 btw.

and let's just look at Jays history and see how many above average 33+ yr old bats we've had:


2025: Springer (35) 232pa, 149wrc+ / Heineman (34) 59pa, 204wrc+
2024: Turner (40) 349pa, 112wrc+ (traded at deadline)
2023: Belt (35) 404pa, 138wrc+ / Kiermaier (34) 408pa, 104wrc+ / Springer (33) 683pa, 104wrc+
2022: Merrifield (33) 130pa, 120wrc+ (trade deadline add)
2021: none
2020: none
2019: Sogard (33) 323pa, 124wrc+ (traded at deadline)
2018: Granderson (37) 349pa, 112wrc+ (traded at deadline) / Pearce (35) 86pa, 135wrc+ (traded) / Morales (35) 471pa, 107wrc+
2017: Martin (34) 365pa, 101wrc+ / Pearce (34) 348pa, 100wrc+
2016: Bautista (35) 517pa, 123wrc+ / Encarnacion (33) 702pa, 136wrc+ / Martin (33) 535pa, 101wrc+
2015: Batuista (34) 666pa, 148wrc+
2014: Batusta (33) 673pa, 160wrc+
2013: DeRosa (38) 236pa, 101wrc+
2012: Molina (36) 191pa, 108wrc+
2011: none
2010: Gonzalez (33) 348pa, 111wrc+ / Overbay (33) 608pa, 105wrc+
2009: Rolen (34) 373pa, 122wrc+ (traded at deadline) / Scutaro (33) 680pa, 112wrc+
2008: Rolen (33) 467pa, 108wrc+
2007: Thomas (39) 624pa, 127wrc+ / Stairs (39) 405pa, 137wrc+
2006: Zaun (36) 339pa, 111wrc+
2005: none
2004: Menechino (33) 276pa, 135wrc+ (traded for midsesaon) / Zaun (33) 392pa, 100wrc+
2003: Myers (37) 369pa, 127wrc+


that's just one team that arguably more often than not has 33+ year old legit good contributors. So yeah, we probably disagree on the definition of "rare".

 

[MindzEye]

Textbook definition of survivorship bias.

 

[zeke]

Also, I believe Springer had a 145 wrc+ in the month of July last year, and a really good couple of months the year before. His year end numbers were still poor. I’d wait a bit before calling the comeback.

well, that's 4 of his last 6 months over 133wrc+ now, including his last 3 in a row.

He's at 120wrc+ over the past 1 calendar year, which is as big a sample as all of last year alone, and more recent - and is a bigger sample of success than any slump he had before.

He projects at around 112wrc+ going forward - which is slightly up from the preseason projection which was at 109, but not up that much, and is probably realistic, I don't think anyone actually expects him to keep being a 140wrc+ bat the rest of the year (though at the same time, it wouldn't be a crazy outcome either).

 

[zeke]

Textbook definition of survivorship bias.

if there's a whole bunch of survivors, it ain't that rare.

 

[MindzEye]

Well sure, when you're considering guys with 300pa and average wRC+ performances "survivors".

Now do actual every day players with 115 or better.

 

[mbow30]

ME is agist

 

[MindzEye]

So is aging

 

[zeke]

Well sure, when you're considering guys with 300pa and average wRC+ performances "survivors".

Now do actual every day players with 115 or better.

i already spoonfed you the numbers.

 

[MindzEye]

8 per year ain't rare. And I count at least 10 btw.

and let's just look at Jays history and see how many above average 33+ yr old bats we've had:


2025: Springer (35) 232pa, 149wrc+ / Heineman (34) 59pa, 204wrc+
2024: Turner (40) 349pa, 112wrc+ (traded at deadline)
2023: Belt (35) 404pa, 138wrc+ / Kiermaier (34) 408pa, 104wrc+ / Springer (33) 683pa, 104wrc+
2022: Merrifield (33) 130pa, 120wrc+ (trade deadline add)
2021: none
2020: none
2019: Sogard (33) 323pa, 124wrc+ (traded at deadline)
2018: Granderson (37) 349pa, 112wrc+ (traded at deadline) / Pearce (35) 86pa, 135wrc+ (traded) / Morales (35) 471pa, 107wrc+
2017: Martin (34) 365pa, 101wrc+ / Pearce (34) 348pa, 100wrc+
2016: Bautista (35) 517pa, 123wrc+ / Encarnacion (33) 702pa, 136wrc+ / Martin (33) 535pa, 101wrc+
2015: Batuista (34) 666pa, 148wrc+
2014: Batusta (33) 673pa, 160wrc+
2013: DeRosa (38) 236pa, 101wrc+
2012: Molina (36) 191pa, 108wrc+
2011: none
2010: Gonzalez (33) 348pa, 111wrc+ / Overbay (33) 608pa, 105wrc+
2009: Rolen (34) 373pa, 122wrc+ (traded at deadline) / Scutaro (33) 680pa, 112wrc+
2008: Rolen (33) 467pa, 108wrc+
2007: Thomas (39) 624pa, 127wrc+ / Stairs (39) 405pa, 137wrc+
2006: Zaun (36) 339pa, 111wrc+
2005: none
2004: Menechino (33) 276pa, 135wrc+ (traded for midsesaon) / Zaun (33) 392pa, 100wrc+
2003: Myers (37) 369pa, 127wrc+


that's just one team that arguably more often than not has 33+ year old legit good contributors. So yeah, we probably disagree on the definition of "rare".

i already spoonfed you the numbers.

Thanks for that

Even being kind and calling Belt and Stairs "every day players" (they weren't), over an entire season it's happened 9 times. 10 if Springer keeps this up for the rest of the year.

So yeah, that's not a lot, even setting very generous cutoffs of 400+ PA (strong side platoon guys can hit this), 33+ (33 isn't really seen as old) and 115 wRC+ or better (115 isn't exactly stud shit) it's fairly rare.

But this is all besides the original point. What Springer appears to be in the process of doing (bouncing back after 2 years where on balance he was a league average stick) is definitely rare within any reasonable definition of the word.

 

[zeke]

So 10 times in 20yrs, for ONE franchise.

that's not rare, my friend.


and no, bouncing back off of a couple mediocre years isn't rare either. just look at literally the next 3 guys on the wRC+ leaderboards right now - Lindor, Ozuna, Crawford, and all 3 of them have had multiple mediocre or worse seasons sandwiched in beween elite years.

that's literally just looking at the next 3 names on the leaderboards.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

They have a death wish trotting Francis out there every 5 games.

 

[MapleLeafBlueJayBoy]

Stick a fork in Francis. He is done.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

Stick a fork in Francis. He is done.

He's fucking brutal, but they are already getting a ton out of Lauer who is replacing Scherzer. I dont think they have something in AAA

 

[zeke]

Jun9: Berrios (4 days rest)
Jun10: Bassitt (4)
Jun11: Lauer* (4) (* = aka tandem start)
Jun12: Off
Jun13: Gausman (5)
Jun14: Berrios (4)
Jun15: Bassitt (4)
Jun16: Off
Jun17: Lauer* (5)
Jun18: Gausman (4)
Jun19: Berrios (4)
Jun20: Bassitt (4)
Jun21: ?????
Jun22: Lauer* (4) (or maybe Gausman on 3 days?)
Jun23: Off
Jun24: Gausman (5)
Jun25: Berrios (5)
Jun26: Bassitt (5)
Jun27: Lauer* (4)
Jun28: ????


So we don't actually need another starter for another 13 days, and for the second time in 20 days from now.


I know Scherzer was supposed to throw 50-55 pitches today in florida - did that happen?

That might not have him in line for June 21, but maybe for June 28?

 

[MapleLeafBlueJayBoy]

He did throw 50 pitches in a 3 inning simulated game. Everything went well.

 

[manny]

Adam Macko might be the next guy up when the Jays need another starter. He’s back from knee surgery, started in AAA yesterday and did well, and is already on the 40-man.

 

[zeke]

Plausible Best Lineup using....

(asterisk = platoon)


...This Year's Stats Only:

1. DH Springer 236pa, .295babip, .365obp, 142wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 287pa, .297babip, .380obp, 129wrc+
3. RF Barger 154pa, .297babip, .325obp, 129wrc+
4. SS Bichette 294pa, .301babip, .316obp, 110wrc+
5. CF Varsho 100pa, .196babip, .240obp, 108wrc+
6. C Alejandro 203pa, .323babip, .350obp, 109wrc+
7. LF Lukes* 141pa, .286babip, .358obp, 119wrc+
8. 3B Clement 210pa, .299babip, .315obp, 98wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez 158pa, .230babip, .285obp, 73wrc+

B. UT Santander 209pa, .218babip, .283obp, 66wrc+
B. OF Straw* 117pa, .315babip, .310obp, 91wrc+
B. IF Schneider 32pa, .333babip, .406obp, 128wrc+
B. C Heineman 59pa, .489babip, .441obp, 203wrc+

X. OF Clase 65pa, .286babip, .281obp, 57wrc+
X. OF Roden 92pa, .210babip, .250obp, 47wrc+
X. IF Wagner 68pa, .250babip, .284obp, 51wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 25pa, .211babip, .280obp, 41wrc+
X. C Sanchez 11pa, .250babip, .182obp, 20wrc+



...Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

1. DH Springer 607pa, .275babip, .332obp, 121wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 707pa, .325babip, .393obp, 161wrc+
3. RF Santander 632pa, .223babip, .297obp, 111wrc+
4. C Alejandro 469pa, .307babip, .337obp, 107wrc+
5. 3B Barger 361pa, .273babip, .292obp, 102wrc+
6. 2B Clement 545pa, .287babip, .303obp, 102wrc+
7. CF Varsho 393pa, .258babip, .276obp, 92wrc+
8. SS Bichette 378pa, .293babip, .302obp, 95wrc+
9. LF Lukes* 232pa, .299babip, .363obp, 124wrc+

B. UT Schneider 277pa, .232babip, .260obp, 57wrc+
B. OF Straw* 121pa, .313babip, .326obp, 92wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 539pa, .265babip, .283obp, 72wrc+
B. C Heineman 73pa, .460babip, .311obp, 171wrc+

X. UT Wagner 154pa, .315babip, .314obp, 92wrc+
X. OF Clase 96pa, .313babip, .326obp, 92wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 210pa, .311babip, .329obp, 102wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 73pa, .292babip, .274obp, 107wrc+

X. UT Loperfido 219pa, .290babip, .242obp, 62wrc+
X. OF Roden 92pa, .210babip, .250obp, 47wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 149pa, .257babip, .297obp, 60wrc+
X. C Sanchez 107pa, .232babip, .208obp, 12wrc+



.....Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Projections:

1. SS Bichette 386pa, .317babip, .326obp, 116wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 407pa, .300babip, .373obp, 143wrc+
3. C Alejandro 288pa, .295babip, .348obp, 115wrc+
4. RF Santander 293pa, .256babip, .312obp, 114wrc+
5. 3B Barger 293pa, .290babip, .315obp, 108wrc+
6. DH Springer 369pa, .276babip, .328obp, 112wrc+
7. CF Varsho 310pa, .256babip, .292obp, 103wrc+
8. 2B Gimenez 381pa, .294babip, .320obp, 102wrc+
9. LF Lukes* 203pa, .314babip, .340obp, 113wrc+

B. UT Schneider* 75pa, .288babip, .324obp, 107wrc+
B. OF Roden 176pa, .289babip, .335obp, 107wrc+
B. IF Clement 155pa, .284babip, .306obp, 99wrc+
B. C Heineman 100pa, .301babip, .323obp, 95wrc+

X. UT Wagner 63pa, .314babip, .344obp, 110wrc+
X. OF Clase 80pa, .304babip, .296obp, 86wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 13pa, .308babip, .335obp, 109wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 4pa, .285babip, .280obp, 93wrc+

X. UT Loperfido 21pa, .315babip, .299obp, 94wrc+
X. OF Straw 92pa, .295babip, .304obp, 79wrc+
X. IF Martinez 25pa, .258babip, .278obp, 89wrc+
X. C Sanchez 4pa, .287babip, .282obp, 77wrc+

X. UT Stefanic 9pa, .310babip, .356obp, 109wrc+

 

[zeke]

Vladdy on June 9th:

2025: 287pa, 13.6b%, 14.3k%, .297babip, .380obp, .145iso, 129wrc+
2024: 287pa, 12.5b%, 17.1k%, .340babip, .383obp, .132iso, 136wrc+

I'd say that this year's line is even more promising than last year's was at this point.

Plenty of time for vladdy to get back into a power groove the rest of the way.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Maybe he's just not a consistent 40-50 HR guy like we thought he was going to be (and it looked like he was early on), and we need to accept him as a 25-30 HR guy.

 

[zeke]

Power is more than HR tho.

He's a .208 isolated power guy career, was .221 last year - i.e. a bigtime power but not elite power guy - but only .145 this year, which is below average power.

His big year at age 22 he put up a .290iso - i.e. super elite power - which I don't expect him to be able to regularly (or maybe even ever again).

And like the stats i posted up there show - this time last year he had shown even less power than he has so far this year, and that didn't stop him from ending last year with a top-20 ISO.