The sanctions won’t help Ukraine. They, along with the unexpected “kinetic” resistance from the Ukrainians, are meant to make this incredibly costly for the Russians and prevent further actions.
At this point I think the outcome of this event is:
1. Russia will annex Ukraine and there will be a very violent guerrilla war and terrorist attacks in Russia for the foreseeable future.
2. Russia will be part of an authoritarian economic block, formally cut off from the west, but countries like KSA and India will be pivots. I have no idea what China will do. The Russian economy will be moribund, at best. The FSB doesn’t give a shit.
3. The EU rearms and goes aggressively green re: energy, which is a reasonably big shift in power. This is a clear loss for the FSB.
4. All if this goes out the window if Trump or a surrogate wins in 2024.