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OT: World Politics

lecoqsportif

Well-known member
zing

“What right does the Sun have to impose its way of doing things on us from 152-million kilometres away?” said Dr. Stephen Collins of The Met at a protest for British independence. “And now it’s directly responsible for draining our resources, destroying our property and killing our people. Utterly barbaric.”

I’m pleasantly surprised The Beaverton has survived as a going concern, but I’m not surprised that Canadians are capable of generating quality satire.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Turkey has brokered a deal with Russia that will allow Ukrainian agricultural goods to leave by sea. 120 days with renewal options. Turkey does all the inspecting for "contraband", Ukraine maintains control of their territorial waters.

The timing here is interesting imo. Regional ports have started turning away Russian grain vessels with stolen grain (the last few had to unload in syria) so actually stealing the grain for resale wasn't turning out to be particularly useful. But is there any chance Vlad cuts any deal that acknowledges the statehood of Ukraine if shit isn't a disaster for them at the moment? This could absolutely be a one off to placate Turkey, but it feels like a prelude to Russia trying to negotiate their way back into the international community. They got zero concessions here from anyone. The deal was basically to fuck off and like it, and they took it.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
Turkey has brokered a deal with Russia that will allow Ukrainian agricultural goods to leave by sea. 120 days with renewal options. Turkey does all the inspecting for "contraband", Ukraine maintains control of their territorial waters.

The timing here is interesting imo. Regional ports have started turning away Russian grain vessels with stolen grain (the last few had to unload in syria) so actually stealing the grain for resale wasn't turning out to be particularly useful. But is there any chance Vlad cuts any deal that acknowledges the statehood of Ukraine if shit isn't a disaster for them at the moment? This could absolutely be a one off to placate Turkey, but it feels like a prelude to Russia trying to negotiate their way back into the international community. They got zero concessions here from anyone. The deal was basically to fuck off and like it, and they took it.


I wouldn’t be surprised if relatively soon they start to dial back their military action and start pushing for the gradual normalization of their international relations.

Before they do that though, they’ll hold fake Crimea-style referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk and the swath of conquered Southern territory that connects Crimea to those two by land. Then they’ll formally annex them into the Russian Empire.

The bet will be that with the whole of Ukraine no longer under threat, week-kneed European leaders will refuse to formally recognize their redrawing of the map and make feeble protests from time to time, but otherwise will steadily push to return relations & trade to normal. This process, of course, would be helped along a great deal by the GOP re-taking Congress and/or the Presidency.

Until enough time passes and the whole process repeats again, with Russia taking another big wet bite out of Ukraine’s territory. It’ll probably be another attempt at decapitating the government and turning the whole country into a satellite/puppet state like Belarus, with a secondary objective of taking Odesa and the rest of Ukraine’s remaining Black Sea coast & linking up with Russian-controlled Transnistria in Moldova.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Thats probably the plan, yeah.

I don't think its going to work though. Too many European governments are balls deep in this. Its really only Germany and France trying to straddle both sides. Ukraine has been slow building the bodies and equipment necessary for an offensive push capable of throwing Russia back on their side of the border and observers think that they're waiting for Russia to exhaust themselves again (sure looks like they're close) before they start. They've built up missile capacity to sink the black sea fleet (which opens up the retaking of crimea) and with HIMARS and the M777's, are building up enough artillery to sustain a push.

They will try to hold referendums, but nobody cares or considers them legitimate. It only works if you have the military capability to hold the territory. They're running out of that capability.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
Turkey has brokered a deal with Russia that will allow Ukrainian agricultural goods to leave by sea. 120 days with renewal options. Turkey does all the inspecting for "contraband", Ukraine maintains control of their territorial waters.

The timing here is interesting imo. Regional ports have started turning away Russian grain vessels with stolen grain (the last few had to unload in syria) so actually stealing the grain for resale wasn't turning out to be particularly useful. But is there any chance Vlad cuts any deal that acknowledges the statehood of Ukraine if shit isn't a disaster for them at the moment? This could absolutely be a one off to placate Turkey, but it feels like a prelude to Russia trying to negotiate their way back into the international community. They got zero concessions here from anyone. The deal was basically to fuck off and like it, and they took it.
All that I am reading suggests the tide on the battlefield is turning very heavily in favour of the Ukrainians.

Russians are running out of troops and supplies and Ukies are the opposite.

I expect Kherson to be back in Ukrainian hands within weeks. Also expect the Russkies to suddenly be very interested in negotiating a ceasefire. We shall see.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
Thats probably the plan, yeah.

I don't think its going to work though. Too many European governments are balls deep in this. Its really only Germany and France trying to straddle both sides. Ukraine has been slow building the bodies and equipment necessary for an offensive push capable of throwing Russia back on their side of the border and observers think that they're waiting for Russia to exhaust themselves again (sure looks like they're close) before they start. They've built up missile capacity to sink the black sea fleet (which opens up the retaking of crimea) and with HIMARS and the M777's, are building up enough artillery to sustain a push.

They will try to hold referendums, but nobody cares or considers them legitimate. It only works if you have the military capability to hold the territory. They're running out of that capability.


I certainly hope you’re right.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
All that I am reading suggests the tide on the battlefield is turning very heavily in favour of the Ukrainians.

Russians are running out of troops and supplies and Ukies are the opposite.

I expect Kherson to be back in Ukrainian hands within weeks. Also expect the Russkies to suddenly be very interested in negotiating a ceasefire. We shall see.

Yeah, since the "operational pause" the math has changed a lot. The Russians were grinding very, very slowly forward on the back of the epic fuckton of artillery shells they had produced over the last forever. Even the Russo cautious observers I read weren't expecting Russia to have stockpiles this large or be willing to fucking pour them into the Donbas like they have. We're talking about a few decades worth of shell production being spent or planning to be spent on this campaign. Since the pause though, apparently their firing rates have plummetted, which has led to no movement along the lines. It will take the Ukrainians a bit to figure out when it's safe to switch strategy and push (they've really done a brilliant job working in layers to trade relatively tiny amounts of land for russian blood and a torrent of artillery shells). For reference, this entire Donbas has only taken a landmass about the size of the Niagara Falls/St Catherines region....as in, if the US military had invaded us through Niagara falls, they would have spent months and not even be at Hamilton yet.

A lot of the smarter guys I follow who had stood the test of time with their predictions tend to be of the opinion that the Ukies are letting the Russians punch themselves out in the Donbas before making a big push for Kherson and Crimea where Russian supply lines/logistics are basically non existence and the Ukrainians have a massive advantage in having large, relatively undamaged population centres close to that front line to support a push. I remember hearing a bunch of August predictions a few months ago, they might be a touch optimistic now, but only a touch.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
I certainly hope you’re right.

The Ukies don't give a fuck what the Germans say at this point, they're going to continue fighting until all of their territory (likely including Crimea) is theirs again. The Russians look more and more like a spent force every week now (arty firing rates are 10-15% of what they were a few weeks ago), and a bunch of supporting governments (Poland, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands...most importantly, the Yanks) have the stomache for sticking this out. The thing about the weak kneed European leaders is that they're really only found in Berlin and no one outside of their immediate orbit is listening to them right now. They're on the wrong side of this issue, everyone knows they're on the wrong side of this issue, and why. I would substitute "weak kneed" for "in Russia's pocket" and very few have time for them right now.

Thing is, Scholz' approach with Russia is fucking ruining him politically in Germany right now. His personal approval rating has tanked to 35% largely on the back of this issue, and his party has been losing regional elections all over Germany recently, with Ukraine being a major reason why.

Basically, the Ukies don't really require the support of Berlin or Brussels to continue fighting.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
Yeah, since the "operational pause" the math has changed a lot. The Russians were grinding very, very slowly forward on the back of the epic fuckton of artillery shells they had produced over the last forever. Even the Russo cautious observers I read weren't expecting Russia to have stockpiles this large or be willing to fucking pour them into the Donbas like they have. We're talking about a few decades worth of shell production being spent or planning to be spent on this campaign. Since the pause though, apparently their firing rates have plummetted, which has led to no movement along the lines. It will take the Ukrainians a bit to figure out when it's safe to switch strategy and push (they've really done a brilliant job working in layers to trade relatively tiny amounts of land for russian blood and a torrent of artillery shells). For reference, this entire Donbas has only taken a landmass about the size of the Niagara Falls/St Catherines region....as in, if the US military had invaded us through Niagara falls, they would have spent months and not even be at Hamilton yet.

A lot of the smarter guys I follow who had stood the test of time with their predictions tend to be of the opinion that the Ukies are letting the Russians punch themselves out in the Donbas before making a big push for Kherson and Crimea where Russian supply lines/logistics are basically non existence and the Ukrainians have a massive advantage in having large, relatively undamaged population centres close to that front line to support a push. I remember hearing a bunch of August predictions a few months ago, they might be a touch optimistic now, but only a touch.
yup, the combination of attrition plus strategic HIMARS strikes are really fucking with Russkie logistics and I mean eventually they were going to run out of artillery anyways because that is the thrust of their strategy here.

just have to hope the tide turns before rich folks lose patience. but I don't think the Ukies resolve is close to bending one bit.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
The Ukies don't give a fuck what the Germans say at this point, they're going to continue fighting until all of their territory (likely including Crimea) is theirs again. The Russians look more and more like a spent force every week now (arty firing rates are 10-15% of what they were a few weeks ago), and a bunch of supporting governments (Poland, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands...most importantly, the Yanks) have the stomache for sticking this out. The thing about the weak kneed European leaders is that they're really only found in Berlin and no one outside of their immediate orbit is listening to them right now. They're on the wrong side of this issue, everyone knows they're on the wrong side of this issue, and why. I would substitute "weak kneed" for "in Russia's pocket" and very few have time for them right now.

Thing is, Scholz' approach with Russia is fucking ruining him politically in Germany right now. His personal approval rating has tanked to 35% largely on the back of this issue, and his party has been losing regional elections all over Germany recently, with Ukraine being a major reason why.

Basically, the Ukies don't really require the support of Berlin or Brussels to continue fighting.
the one thing that scares me though is the US mid-terms. realistically unlikely to change much but I consider the fascist party to largely be in Putin's pocket.

so long as Uncle Joe is around though things should continue to be rosy. and I don't think the Russkies have another couple years to wait for that to change.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
the one thing that scares me though is the US mid-terms. realistically unlikely to change much but I consider the fascist party to largely be in Putin's pocket.

so long as Uncle Joe is around though things should continue to be rosy. and I don't think the Russkies have another couple years to wait for that to change.

Mid terms don't scare me much on this because the Executive handles the vast vast majority of foreign aid/policy up until a declaration of war is required (and even that has modern precedent for skirting Congress). This has to be well handled, the Russians well humbled and Ukraine capable of fending off Russia at their borders by 2025 though definitely.

There are some serious silver linings with how this has all shaken loose though

- Informal polling suggests that Russian approval has tanked in the Donbas region. Russia will also have much less spare capability to continue to give to seperatists in the region

- Overall Russian capability might be fucked for a generation. When this shakes loose and wraps up, a purge will likely come within the upper ranks of the Russian military and a reorganization would probably take years to settle itself, and that's before they run into the economic realities of post war Russia. Where is the equipment and manpower coming from to take another run at a well requipped Ukrainian military?
 

lecoqsportif

Well-known member
Russian cruise missiles hit the port of Odessa less than 24 hrs after the bullshit “grain deal”. We all knew it was just an elaborate troll job, no?
 
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