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OT: World Politics

TheCountofMonteCristo said:
It's done in reality, even you have to admit it. Hell, even Zelensky is now admitting he might have to pull out any of his remaining forces. Basically it is Berlin in late April 1945 and we know how that ended.
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That sounds like when Hitler said that the battle of Stalingrad was "basically over" or whenever Zeke talks about the "basically the Stanley Cup".
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
That sounds like when Hitler said that the battle of Stalingrad was "basically over" or whenever Zeke talks about the "basically the Stanley Cup".
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different situation, weaker power far from home covered on flanks by Italians and Romanians, here you have a larger power bleeding the opponent white. Ukranian Vlad might get a last minute reprieve like Frederick the Great in 1760 but doubtful. Even he is mentionong he might have to pull out. The salient is closing tightly.

As you have said objective reality is not positive nor negative, it just is.
 
TheCountofMonteCristo said:
different situation, weaker power far from home covered on flanks by Italians and Romanians, here you have a larger power bleeding the opponent white. Ukranian Vlad might get a last minute reprieve like Frederick the Great in 1760 but doubtful. Even he is mentionong he might have to pull out. The salient is closing tightly.

As you have said objective reality is not positive nor negative, it just is.
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My goodness, you seem to speak with such authority on an issue that you seem to be very poorly informed about.

First, Russian casualties far, far outpace Ukrainian ones. By a measure of anywhere between 5 to 1 and 7 to 1 for Bakhmut specifically.

Second, Bakhmut itself is of minimal strategic value, especially given it is now basically a pile of ruins. The Ukrainian incentive to keep defending is to attrit the Russians. The apparent Russian motivation for continuing the assault is so that they can finally claim a political victory after months of shit.

Finally, Russia now occupies something like 16% of Ukrainian territory, I believe. Whatever the number, it has barely changed in months, despite Russia sending their new conscripts to their deaths and nearing culmination.

The Russians made gains around Bakhmut but were unsuccessful in Kupyansk and Lyman. They had minor, minor success near Avdiivka and got fucking massacred at Vuhledar. These are the only fruits of their spring offensive, and they are mostly rancid and rotten corpses with a few square kilometres of territory as a bonus.
 
We've already seen this movie. Russia punches itself out in a long, drawn out offensive that costs them massively but they're unwilling to stop for political reasons. The chains move a few KM over the course of fucking months and the Ukies find a weak spot and counter.

lol "the salient is closing tightly". Fuck off. It's a pocket that has been defended for 8 months and has never measured wider than 7-8kms. The areas behind Bakhmut are well fortified, if the Ukies pull back it will be to more well structured defences a few KM to the west of where they are now. Same shit as Popasna when the doomsayers claimed losing Popasna was a sign of things to come. Bakhmut is only notable because of the scale of the fighting. It's no more tactically important than a few dozen other random ass pieces of dirt along the line with constant fighting over the last 6 months. Lyman was far more important, Kherson obviously more important. Svatove more important, Kreminna more important. Bakhmut isn't a rail or logitistic hub. A town roughly the size of Orillia with no tactical importance to either side.
 


Don't even have to pay much attention to see the obvious build up for an offensive. The idea that the Ukies are being bled to death in Bakhmut when they've committed minimal levels of armor & artillery assets they've received over the last 6 months to the defence is just flat wrong.

If the corpses of Bradley's, Leopards, HIMARs launchers, & M777's were remotely common in Bakhmut we would be seeing their images constantly from the Russian milbloggers.

If they're not in Bakhmut...where are they?
 
for @TheCountofMonteCristo. from a source you are likely to believe no less:

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted on April 6 that Ukrainian forces are not retreating from Bakhmut and said that a Russian offensive is "out of question" at the moment.

It contradicted his own earlier statement that Russian forces "had taken Bakhmut de jure."

"It should be clearly said that the enemy (Ukrainian forces) is not going anywhere (from Bakhmut). They have organized defense inside the city, first by the railway, then in the area of high-rise buildings in the western district of the city," Prigozhin said in a comment shared by his press service on Telegram.

According to Prigozhin, Russian forces are faced with three issues, namely a lack of "properly organized command," weak flanks, and not enough ammunition.
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SOURCE
 
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