OT: World Politics

[lecoqsportif]

I’m listening to Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union by Vladislav Zubok.

During the attempted putsch against Gorbachev, many insiders feared exactly what we have now - backslide to authoritarian nationalist regime. The putsch was a weak-kneed attempt to turn back the clocks by Putin’s bosses. The reality was they were too broke to withstand sanctions if they harmed Gorbachev or Yeltsin, so it petered out.

But one thing they had at their disposal was immense psy-ops they could deploy against their own population and Spetsnaz and KGB commandos to deploy violence.

Nothing has really changed.

 

[LeafGm]

 

[axlsalinger]

 

[LeafGm]

Sounds like a pretty standard Russian influence campaign.

And where support for Russia is concerned, not too hard to “marry” those two groups together.

 

[lecoqsportif]

The hard left, in part, is sympathetic to Russia because they are anti-American imperialist. I get it. They decry when one nation attacks or harms another through violence or other coercive means to the benefit of the metropole. And the evil US is responsible for this war because…

Er. Wait. Oh.

 

[MindzEye]

Ukies putting on a bit of a fireworks display in Sevastopol tonight.

Also, rumored to have secured a bridge head near Kherson

 

[MindzEye]

 

[CRL]

Ecuador FTW!

 

[TheCountofMonteCristo]

some things never change in Russia

 

[lecoqsportif]

Ecuador FTW!

Well that was an ass kicking.

 

[MindzEye]

This is in the area that there is a rumoured bridge head being established.

 

[Wayward DP]

This is in the area that there is a rumoured bridge head being established.

what are Atesh partisans though? sounds like not UAF?

I'm not ready to pay attention to a potential bridgehead on the Dnipro quite yet, but I'm getting there.

 

[MindzEye]

what are Atesh partisans though? sounds like not UAF?

Not UAF, but I'd be moderately surprised if there wasn't some capability to communicate and coordinate with partisan groups. Coincidences exist of course, but a significant partiscan attack occurring real close(within 10km) to where there's a rumoured bridge head, right in the middle of all the offensive speculation. Coincidences are starting to pile up there.

I'm not ready to pay attention to a potential bridgehead on the Dnipro quite yet, but I'm getting there.

It aligns with some other things I've seen mentioned (poor quality of Russian forces in the area, the best men and equipment have been pillaged for Bakhmut, Ukrainian short range arty forcing Russian withdraw from Dachy on the other bank etc) and a bunch of the russian telegram channel translations I've seen over the last 2 weeks as well.

I'm starting to lean towards a limited holding on the east bank being likely. We "know" they've been landing special forces from time to time over the last few months, but I don't think that is this.

 

[Wayward DP]

Not UAF, but I'd be moderately surprised if there wasn't some capability to communicate and coordinate with partisan groups. Coincidences exist of course, but a significant partiscan attack occurring real close(within 10km) to where there's a rumoured bridge head, right in the middle of all the offensive speculation. Coincidences are starting to pile up there.



It aligns with some other things I've seen mentioned (poor quality of Russian forces in the area, the best men and equipment have been pillaged for Bakhmut, Ukrainian short range arty forcing Russian withdraw from Dachy on the other bank etc) and a bunch of the russian telegram channel translations I've seen over the last 2 weeks as well.

I'm starting to lean towards a limited holding on the east bank being likely. We "know" they've been landing special forces from time to time over the last few months, but I don't think that is this.

It would be super bad ass if they breakthrough on the left bank as part of the counteroffensive, for sure. hope it's the case. guess we'll know soon enough. I feel like the ukrainians have become expert at fucking with the russians logistics too, hope it pays off.

 

[MindzEye]

It would be super bad ass if they breakthrough on the left bank as part of the counteroffensive, for sure. hope it's the case. guess we'll know soon enough. I feel like the ukrainians have become expert at fucking with the russians logistics too, hope it pays off.

It's going to be really hard to know what is a feint and what isn't. But starting the party in Kherson makes a lot of sense. It's the furthest distance for stretch Russian supply lines to provide men, equipment and supplies to. Also, the Russians have become more dependent on the Dnipro as a defensive boundary than the Ukies have. There's like 150 km of distance between Kherson and Melitopol that the Russians have barely had to spare any time thinking about defending.

 

[Wayward DP]

looks like the fun is getting started:

 

[Wayward DP]

this is pure speculation at this point, but what are message boards for?

 

[zeke]

RIP

 

[Wayward DP]

more:

Erdogan cancels rallies for a day due to health scare

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he cancelled his scheduled campaign rallies on Wednesday due to health reasons, ahead of landmark May 14 elections.

"Today, I will rest at home with the advice of my doctors," Erdogan wrote on his Twitter account.

Late on Tuesday, Erdogan cut short a live TV interview during which he said he felt sick due to an upset stomach.

 

[LeafGm]

more:

Erdogan cancels rallies for a day due to health scare

Hopefully he dies!