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OT: World Politics

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"it's at this point, he knew that he fucked up"
 
The specifics are fairly fuzzy still on the progress of the counter offensive but there's a few clear items to mention

- There's 4 separate pushes in Zap/West Donetsk right now and one of them is doing this:

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They took Makarivka today and most commenters are suggesting that if they take the next village Staromaoirske, it's a wrap for prepared defences in that area and a rout is likely. The most telling bit though can't be seen on that map, but all of the village are lined up in a river valley and there is hills to both sides. Ukies control tactical high ground on the one side and will likely just focus on clearing prepared defenses on the west side of the river at which point the Russians will probably just bug out. But there's apparently little in the way of prepared defences beyond that point until fucking Mariupol.

The Russians have responded to this the best way they know how, they blew the dam down river and will likely retreat to beyond the chaos they create. That's about 12km south east of where the Ukies are now.
 
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some perspective on what's happening:



Yeah, social media was quick to jump on a few damaged/destroyed armoured vehicles that were part of mech recon pushes but again we're seeing that when the Ukies come prepared to push, the Russians are buckling and the Ukies are gaining ground. They've suffered minor losses and already put russian lines under threat of regional collapse. Both sides have had time to plan and prepare for what they knew was coming, but if the Russians can't stuff them here, especially in light of the Dnipro flood turning a two front party temporarily into a one front party....well fuck, they're in trouble.
 
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